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Yup, I'm about 40 years away from retirement.
Ah - well - investing is easy for you - you've got about 70 years to achieve what you want.
Except the next 70 will not be the same as the last 70 :rolleyes:

My life horizon is only about 10 years and even though your 50-25-25 PP plan makes sense I wonder if it is appropriate for me with respect to Gold. I'd need to buy quite a lot more and I'm have difficulty accepting that at its current price. I last bought gold in the 1990s. Maybe I'm better off taking my profit and buying some more sedate investments like VOO/XIU, AGG/XBB and some more single malts..
 

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Discussion Starter #402
Ah - well - investing is easy for you - you've got about 70 years to achieve what you want.
Except the next 70 will not be the same as the last 70 :rolleyes:
Well not quite that long. I see myself working intermittently until I'm perhaps 75 or 80 years old, if I'm lucky. But yeah, I have a few decades to go (hopefully).

My life horizon is only about 10 years and even though your 50-25-25 PP plan makes sense I wonder if it is appropriate for me with respect to Gold. I'd need to buy quite a lot more and I'm have difficulty accepting that at its current price. I last bought gold in the 1990s. Maybe I'm better off taking my profit and buying some more sedate investments like VOO/XIU, AGG/XBB and some more single malts..
You have to go with a plan that's comfortable for you... that's the most important thing. Markets will always do scary things so you need to commit to holdings that you are very comfortable with.

It's possible to make a pretty great portfolio using just VOO/XIU and AGG/XBB, perhaps some VT/XAW too.
 

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MNT.TO's premium to net asset value is close to 1% today. I am planning to sell some CGL.C(under-valued in my taxable account) and buy the same amount of MNT.TO. Two benefits: 1) MNT.TO has a lower management fee; 2) a kind of tax loss harvesting approaching the year end.
 

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Discussion Starter #404
MNT.TO's premium to net asset value is close to 1% today. I am planning to sell some CGL.C(under-valued in my taxable account) and buy the same amount of MNT.TO. Two benefits: 1) MNT.TO has a lower management fee; 2) a kind of tax loss harvesting approaching the year end.
Currently it's trading at 0.5% premium to NAV. Nice to see it falling back in line.
 

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Currently it's trading at 0.5% premium to NAV. Nice to see it falling back in line.
I have finished this job today. Because the gold price was dropping, I was able to sell CGL.C high and bought MNT low. I was so lucky to buy MNT at ~$25.80(0.19% Premium to NAV).

20856
 

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I have finished this job today. Because the gold price was dropping, I was able to sell CGL.C high and bought MNT low. I was so lucky to buy MNT at ~$25.80(0.19% Premium to NAV).
I did the same over the last two days, for the reasons you articulated.
One more reason: In case the premium reappears.

I pocketed between 10% and almost 20% (depending the tranche) flipping between the two this year. Which is incredible given that my exposure to the underlying asset remained static.
 

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Discussion Starter #408
at this writing, MNT is available at a discount to NAV!
Wow, neat! Hopefully gold remains out of favour for a while ... I think I might also rotate from CGL.C back into MNT.

It would be pretty amazing if we can harvest this on both sides, repeatedly. I do expect MNT to diverge from NAV just like CEF was doing, because MNT has a static bullion amount and is a lot like a closed-end fund.

I really love it when gold plummets and scares everyone away. This is the kind of volatility that keeps it unpopular and away from mainstream portfolios. Hope it falls a lot more.
 

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Wow, neat! Hopefully gold remains out of favour for a while ... I think I might also rotate from CGL.C back into MNT.

It would be pretty amazing if we can harvest this on both sides, repeatedly. I do expect MNT to diverge from NAV just like CEF was doing, because MNT has a static bullion amount and is a lot like a closed-end fund.

I really love it when gold plummets and scares everyone away. This is the kind of volatility that keeps it unpopular and away from mainstream portfolios. Hope it falls a lot more.
RCM announced an amendments to MNT redemption procedure on Nov. 2nd, which allows RCM to use substitue gold bullion from 3rd parties in certain circumstances. I am not sure if this contributed the significant price drop of MNT the past two weeks. Here is the link of the original article. https://www.newswire.ca/news-releas...change-traded-receipt-programs-894625369.html
 

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Discussion Starter #412
But MNT has dropped 14.5% since early Nov. while CGL.C only dropped 4.5%.
The Mint can now suspend redemptions at their discretion which seems like it could be significant. On the other hand, after that news went public, the MNT premium did not come off until two weeks later. Mr. Market doesn't tend to sit on information for two weeks and then suddenly get upset, so I really doubt the market cared about that news.

I suspect the cause of the premium was always investor enthusiasm about gold in general, and the effect that sentiment has on a closed-end-fund type of structure. When there's a fixed amount of the asset, as MNT has, the amount of gold is not dynamically rising and falling. The Mint very rarely changes the amount of bullion in the program, and when I emailed them, they said that they have other priorities -- basically they won't be changing the amount of gold.

With a fixed amount of assets, investor sentiment will then drive a premium/discount to fair value. The same thing happened for many decades with Central Fund of Canada (CEF) which is a similar structure. In fact I used to watch the CEF premium as an indicator of gold's popularity.

There's even more proof. CEF still trades and there's even a ticker !CEFPREM for it's premium/discount. In this chart, I'm showing the CEF premium in black and the MNT premium in dotted pink. That dotted pink line is the ratio of MNT to CGL.C.

I played tricks with the scales so they line up, but the point is: they appear to be moving in tandem.

20859



This shows that throughout November, the premium on both (CEF and MNT) steadily came off, with a sharp decrease on Nov 18 and Nov 19.

I think it's sentiment.
 

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I did the same over the last two days, for the reasons you articulated.
One more reason: In case the premium reappears.

I pocketed between 10% and almost 20% (depending the tranche) flipping between the two this year. Which is incredible given that my exposure to the underlying asset remained static.
MNT's premium does reappear. +2% now.
 

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Never mind gold for a moment. BMO's chief strategist is now projecting the TSX will rise more than 15% in the next 13 months and the S&P more than 17% -way more than bonds etc. Are our permanent portfolio enthusiasts still recommending \twice as much in bonds (etc) than equities?

That's not a challenge - just a question :geek:
 

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Well, its speculation. I could find someone to say buy bonds / gold or a specific Fx. So its kinda like hot air.

The point of the PP is that with diversity you always have an asset doing well, and one that is presumably not.

Timing the market is difficult to do, if not impossible.

Let the good times roll - covid numbers are exploding....

J4B - I may have missed my swap back to MNT optimal time too.. I'll revisit this on Monday....
 

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Discussion Starter #417 (Edited)
Never mind gold for a moment. BMO's chief strategist is now projecting the TSX will rise more than 15% in the next 13 months and the S&P more than 17% -way more than bonds etc. Are our permanent portfolio enthusiasts still recommending \twice as much in bonds (etc) than equities?
Wow what an accurate prediction. Does he think the TSX will go up 15.3% or 15.8%? Funny stuff.

And yes I'm sticking with the same passive strategy, because the whole idea of passive asset allocation is that you stick to your allocations without trying to make short or medium term forecasts. As passive investors, we acknowledge that we cannot predict markets in the short/medium term.

If you really know what's going to happen with stocks, that the TSX is going up 15% in the next 13 months, and that bonds will be weaker-- you shouldn't be following any passive strategy at all. You should be actively trading the market or consulting your crystal ball to tell you what's hot for the next few months.

With that BMO crystal ball for example, you should leverage long the S&P 500 and short bonds. Now go ahead and try that, continue actively trading for a decade or two, and report back on how you do... maybe you'll end up being the 1 in 1,000,000 who succeeds at it :D
 

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You guys know Ray Dalio's All Weather portfolio.

Now he's saying "don't own bonds, don't own cash".

 

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Sounds like many of you have been riding with gold for some time - I'm new to gold as an investment and would appreciate some help!

I've been looking into bullion as a complement to bonds in my portfolio (will play more of a defensive role in my portfolio, hence why I'm not picking gold producer companies). I've been reading up on Canadian gold bullion ETFs and wanted to ask about the pros/cons of CGL, MNT and KILO:

I see a lot of chatter about MNT - is there a reason you guys prefer this to, say KILO, which seems to have a lower MER (0.26% to 0.35%)?

Also, a few more questions, if I may:

  • Do you prefer hedged or unhedged gold funds, and why?
  • Do these funds pay any distributions? I presume not and couldn't find any mention of distributions on their respective websites, but wanted to confirm.

Thanks in advance for any assistance.

Franko
 

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Discussion Starter #420
You guys know Ray Dalio's All Weather portfolio.

Now he's saying "don't own bonds, don't own cash".
I've followed a lot of what Dalio says publicly and my interpretation of this is that he's wearing an "active manager" hat when he says this. With a short term horizon, and speaking as someone who believes they can actively trade the market, Dalio is bearish on bonds. Bridgewater, like all hedge funds, sells active management.

At the same time, his All Weather strategy is a long term passive approach, and I don't think there is any change to his advice to be heavily diversified, including a bond component. I've read material from others at his firm (Bridgewater) as well. When talking about All Weather, they have spelled out that it requires a bond allocation and that short term outlook for bonds does not change anything.

Really I think this comes down to whether you consider yourself a short term active manager, or long term passive investor.
 
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