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This could also be just a one or two day correction before stocks rocket to new all time highs.
The market has opened all in the green. Let's see if it's just a small bounce back before another sharp decline. At the moment, I just feel stupid I bought stocks on Monday and instantly lost 12%. During this week, my best stock was CJT who doesn't want to go down. I also have SCL which is a funny stock to watch at the moment. I did +200% in the first week, then -50% during the week and now currently at +30% today for an overall +100% since I bought it.
 

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You'd think that the market would be more negative given that current financial data can't be good, aside from Amazon, Wal-mart, Loblaw, etc. the types of retailers that do well regardless of economic activity. I recall hearing some analyst saying that people are pricing stocks based on expectations next year as opposed to current... while I can understand to some degree, the fact of the matter is that a lot of balance sheets are not good and I'm sure a number of companies are on the knife's edge of bankruptcy.
Everyone knows that the stock market rallies mainly because the FED is printing money and buying everything. But, I still have a mixed feelings when I see most of my PP valuation growth offsetted by long term bond and gold recently. I know this is by design of PP, it will do the same when the market drops. Just can't stop thinking of it...
 

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Everyone knows that the stock market rallies mainly because the FED is printing money and buying everything. But, I still have a mixed feelings when I see most of my PP valuation growth offsetted by long term bond and gold recently. I know this is by design of PP, it will do the same when the market drops. Just can't stop thinking of it...
Sure there is some stock manipulation, but eventually it'll catch up.

That is pretty much the point of a PP. It tends to smoothen out the waves.
 

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This pandemic is a kind of accelator for online adoption i.e. SaaS(Shopify, Square), online education(Zoom), streaming, ecommerce(including offline to online) and Cloud services(CDN, Security and etc). Although someone may argue that the PE ratio is as high as the Internet bubble in 2000, the penetration/influence of technodege to our life has changed quite a bit. My Variable Portfolio is mainly focusing in these sectors plus some geo diversifications. It has been doing pretty good this year.
 

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Discussion Starter #326
Everyone knows that the stock market rallies mainly because the FED is printing money and buying everything. But, I still have a mixed feelings when I see most of my PP valuation growth offsetted by long term bond and gold recently. I know this is by design of PP, it will do the same when the market drops. Just can't stop thinking of it...
I have mixed feelings about every asset within the PP. The way I think about this is: yes, each asset in the PP has its own unique problems, but that's OK. I'm aware of their dangers and shortcomings and am fine with them.

The main difficulty with the PP is that, eventually, there will be some stretch of years when one of the assets performs terribly. For example gold 1980-2000, or stocks 2000-2014. In these periods, people tend to give up on those assets. They look like chronic money-losers!

Bond funds have been amazing for the last 35 years, but at some point, yields could march higher and bond funds may show terrible performance. But I must still hold them in the PP even while they underperform.

To mentally prepare myself for that, I'm acknowledging up front that all the asset classes have problems and I could see one of the portfolio's assets perform terribly for a decade or more.
 

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Discussion Starter #328 (Edited)
But you could just run a hybrid PP with a decreased exposure while that is going on.....
Myself, I would not try that, because I don't have a good history of timing these different asset classes. Look at US stocks, for example. They did terribly from 2000-2014 and by 2010 most investors were pretty soured on them. But in fact their performance turned around very sharply right around then.

I was bearish, and kept a very low allocation to US stocks. The problem is that I was still doing that in 2017. So my timing was all wrong... by trying to be "tactical" I missed most of the bull market. And then you have the problem where, when late to the party, you're more likely to join near another peak.

So I've tried this tactical asset exposure thing, and I couldn't do it. It only hurt my returns. Now, I'm sticking to constant % asset weights.

Constant asset weights with occasional rebalancing will automatically "buy low".
 
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