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Why would the market for NGL/petrochemicals NOT be affected by a downturn in global markets?
You know the market for NGL is much broader than the market for petrochemicals and can actually diverge. The petrochemical market, e.g. ethylene/PE/PET/PS and PP, is not necessarily affected until such time as the manufacture of widgets slows due to economic downturns. So not much effect for ethane and propane. The problem today is propane prices are depressed due to lack of access to markets. Hence the reason for the Ripley terminal, and the PPL and IPL PP projects. I doubt ethane and propane prices have moved, or will move in the short term.

The bigger issue today for the likes of GEI, PPL, KEY and IPL today is the drop in pricing for the heavier gas liquids used to provide diluent for bitumen blending. The collapse in oil prices will directly impact the prices for pentanes plus and I imagine butane as well. Oilsands producers simply can't pay the same prices for diluent and to the extent some oilsands production gets shut in, demand for diluent will go down. CVE has already said they are cutting back on crude by rail.

So one cannot lump petrochemical demand and thus the feedstock for petrochemicals into the same bucket as NGLs used primarily for diluent. They are only loosely correlated. Building the PP plants can be highly profitable for the most part, distinctly separate from the NGL processing business.

Added: Link to Nov 2018 NGL Study https://ceri.ca/assets/files/Study_176_Full_Report.pdf
 

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This is the most recent thread on PPL that I could find -- perhaps a moderator would care to adjust the subject to correct the stock symbol?

Anyhow, I was curious what PPL holders think about the prospects of the company with this IPL mess shaking out. My instinct is the BAM will win and PPL will get nothing. I suppose that this would be a nagative for PPL. Do you think potential failure of the deal is adequately priced into PPL at ~$39 or is there a downside if they don't prevail? To me it looks like we're almost back at May pre-deal-announcement levels, but I am unsure what the wider sentiment is likely to be.
 

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The PPL/IPL presentation talks about the acquisition being accretive due to &A synergies primarily and there are likely some other marketing and product movement opportunities that will be accretive but the 2 companies mostly occupy a different space. I see this attempt being similar to PPL prior acquisitions, i.e. spreading their tentacles.

My take is if PPL is not successful, there will likely be a temporary dip in PPL stock price followed by a recovery to about current levels. I am a bit agnostic about success or not as regards my PPL shares. I am simply not very concerned about near term stock price movements.
 

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Thanks. I am considering whether to deploy the cash now or wait a while. I had supposed, when I originally decided I would dump IPL, that I should wait for the dust to settle before buying PPL -- or whatever. That still looks like a reasonable idea, but particularly with yesterday's pull-back I've begun to wonder if there's a limited buying opportunity this week.
 

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It looks like I missed my chance to but PPL for a while. I assumed a breakup of the deal would be perceived as negative and see the price fall a little, or stay the same, if the negative were priced in. Is the $350M really enough to justify 4% rise, or is it mostly just rebound from the uncertainty around IPL, I wonder?
 

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No, it is not enough to justify 4%. It is simply market relief PPL is not buying IPL. I spent some time going through the 'accretive' aspects of the joint PPL/IPL shareholder materials issued for voting. I wasn't overly impressed there was meaningful accretion opportunities besides specified G&A savings and some unspecified/nebulous 'gas liquids' synergies at Redwater.
 
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