Canadian Money Forum banner

1 - 20 of 24 Posts

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,953 Posts
Discussion Starter #1
Tonight, on the NBC Nightly News, they stated the the odds that we were on the brink of another is recession is "all but 100%".

Now, it looks like Hungary is about to default on it's debt with the entire European debt crisis far from under control.

The stock markets lost another two or so percent of their value this week.

Interest rates are on the rise.

The Gulf is filling up with oil and this oil is expected to migrate around Florida and into the Atlantic basin.

North Korea sunk a South Korean naval vessel without starting a war (so far!).

The economy is very fragile but that doesn't stop the Canadian government from spending a billion taxpayers' dollars on a stupid summit of world leaders that will only last a few hours and will likely accomplish very little.

Is this a good time for a retired person to be in the stock market?
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
274 Posts
If you believe everything you read or hear you will also discover that China is ten times more important than Europe. Of course the recovery is fragile and bumpy, every recovery is the same. For the idiots amongst us that means "basics are the same". There will be variations obviously.

Is a correction a good time for anyone to be in the stock market? Well that depends when you bought doesn't it. ;)
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
5,464 Posts
If you expect your stock market returns will not meet your expectations, then it is time to pull back your risk. This isn't a question anyone else can really answer for you.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,892 Posts
Last month Greece, this month Hungary, next month.....

We always seem to have these difficulties, as it is an imperfect and imbalanced world we live in. However we do seem to find a way to overcome them.

Now, if you are uncomfortable being having such an exposure in the markets, then perhaps it is time to re-evaluate, or re-balance some of your holdings.

Having said all of that...I probably just jinxed the markets and they will all come crashing down. :D
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,936 Posts
What I think we're seeing around the world is the end result of socialism run amok. Seems less and less people are working and paying taxes these days and more and more people are lobbying and collecting at the gov't trough. Seems there is always a new bleeding heart social cause that costs more money. This can't be sustained! Canada is in the this same danger too. There's no recovery, folks. Millions of people have lost their homes and are without jobs and taxes and fees are at an all time high. This is the reality for the average person.

The absurdity of holding summit meetings in downtown Toronto is highlighted by the security bill. How many friends of the gov't are benefitting from that? They should have held this summit on Baffin Island, would have saved everyone a ton of money and hassle. (and sure am glad I left the GTA)
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,953 Posts
Discussion Starter #6
As we approach the half way point in another exciting investment year, index investors have seen the S&P/TSX Composite Index YTD % change down 1.5%

Those invested in the S&P 500 Index have experienced a YTD % change of negative 4.50%.

Any thoughts on what the second half of the year will bring???
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,892 Posts
The only thing I can say with certainty, is that that the rest of the year will bring more uncertainty. :D

I expect a macro sideways market.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
4,648 Posts
The economy is very fragile but that doesn't stop the Canadian government from spending a billion taxpayers' dollars on a stupid summit of world leaders that will only last a few hours and will likely accomplish very little.
What you don't see is a lot of the money is shifted from 1 budget to another. My unit needs to deploy yearly for training but the G20 covers that. The military support at the Olympics was necessary training for the people going to Afghanistan

Anyways what does the government do when the economy is fragile? They spend money. That money doesn't just disappear into thin air
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
343 Posts
I, for one, am optimistic. I think this double dip recession talk is overblown (unless you live in Greece). I think we are in a technical consolidation right now. The real driver of stock market valuations is earnings growth, and as I understand it thus far, corporations have been reporting strong earnings. With the exception of war in Korea, and possibly a Hungary default (neither of which I think is likely), I don't think any of the events mentioned by Belguy have much capacity to sink the global economy into another recession.

I think this market is probably an attractive one to pick up equities at more reasonable valuations.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
4,648 Posts
I don't think any of the events mentioned by Belguy have much capacity to sink the global economy into another recession.
He basically listed everything on last night's news

While the media puts the wrong spin and perspective on just about everything, it is very capable of talking us into another recession

The media creates reality, because it's all You know
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,953 Posts
Discussion Starter #11
Well, all that I know is that seemingly any bit of bad news happening anywhere in the world seems to cause markets everywhere to go down.

The worldwide economy seems to be interconnected as never before and even when someone sneezes in Swaziland, it causes the markets to drop everywhere.

As far as I can see, a Canadian investor might just as well be invested in mainly Canadian stocks as I see little need for international diversification in this day and age.

What percentage of your equity investments are in domestic stocks?
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,925 Posts
People think this is just another random event that takes place every 4 years or so but it is not. We are in a 1930 or 1970's style event that is not normal and stocks are still overpriced. So those people will be stomped into the ground as they buy this so called selloff. Most will cry as stocks fall below the March 09 lows because they thought everything is normal. Sorry guys the debt will destroy and all those who think this is nothing will get destroyed.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,953 Posts
Discussion Starter #14
I have been holding a diversified portfolio of mainly broad-based ETF's ever since they were introduced into the marketplace but have not been making very much long term headway towards a fairly modest goal. In the meantime, I know of many people who have made pretty substantial gains on their real estate investments and yet they say that stocks are a better long term investment than real estate.

That would be a hard sell to me at this time.

On the other hand, the nervousness seems to be reaching a peak again and so it might be a good time to buy stocks again.

Buy during periods of maximum pessimism. Sell during periods of maximum euphoria.
 

·
Banned
Joined
·
156 Posts
I have been holding a diversified portfolio of mainly broad-based ETF's ever since they were introduced into the marketplace but have not been making very much long term headway towards a fairly modest goal. In the meantime, I know of many people who have made pretty substantial gains on their real estate investments and yet they say that stocks are a better long term investment than real estate.

That would be a hard sell to me at this time.

On the other hand, the nervousness seems to be reaching a peak again and so it might be a good time to buy stocks again.

Buy during periods of maximum pessimism. Sell during periods of maximum euphoria.
I'd say buy/sell when people start acting on those feelings. I'd probably hold out for a month or two if I had some extra cash I was thinking about investing with. I believe the likely hood of another drop is larger than the likely hood of a large increase at this point, however if it does a big drop again I would think that it'll spike up pretty quick(partially at least) as I'm not the only person that would want to get some stocks while they're on sale!
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,953 Posts
Discussion Starter #16
Well, I, for one, am starting to get just a tad tired of all of the stock sales that we keep having.

A little less volatility might help some of us to sleep a little better.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
5,933 Posts
A little less volatility might help some of us to sleep a little better.
Sure, we would all like that, except for Kevin O'Leary perhaps. ;)

But seems after Hungary, that now Bulgaria & Romania are becoming worrisome too & no doubt more countries will follow in fragile Central/Eastern Europe.

We are definitely the beneficiaries of the crisis as contagion to Canada is unlikely & our economy appears to be on course, if as Flaherty said, no panick buttons are pushed.

It wasn't always, but now my investment philosophy is "to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful".

Canada inspires Europe. :cool:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/canada-the-teacher-as-uk-prepares-for-budget-blitzkrieg/article1595455/
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
191 Posts
What I think we're seeing around the world is the end result of socialism run amok. Seems less and less people are working and paying taxes these days and more and more people are lobbying and collecting at the gov't trough. Seems there is always a new bleeding heart social cause that costs more money. This can't be sustained! Canada is in the this same danger too. There's no recovery, folks. Millions of people have lost their homes and are without jobs and taxes and fees are at an all time high. This is the reality for the average person.

The absurdity of holding summit meetings in downtown Toronto is highlighted by the security bill. How many friends of the gov't are benefitting from that? They should have held this summit on Baffin Island, would have saved everyone a ton of money and hassle. (and sure am glad I left the GTA)
Interesting, but do you think there are enough jobs to go around?

I think what you see is the result of workers in the developed world competing against automation and a cheap global labour force, and losing.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,953 Posts
Discussion Starter #19
And now the worker unrest is spreading to China with many workers over there threatening to strike for better working conditions.

Now, where are we going to turn for our cheap manufactured goods?

How safe is my China Fund ETF investment?

Why can't those workers just be satisfied with what they've got???
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,483 Posts
Waiting for a market bottom to appear... missed the lows of March 2009 completely. I have almost 200k cash earning me next to nothing. Time to change that... :)
 
1 - 20 of 24 Posts
Top