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Discussion Starter #41
NFI Announces First Quarter 2022 Results (tmx.com)

"Due to disruption to the Company's North American control module supply, NFI anticipates a temporary increase in work-in-process inventory as the Company builds and holds contractually sold transit buses during the second and third quarter. As those vehicles are expected to receive control modules in the third quarter and are then planned to be delivered through the late third quarter and throughout the fourth quarter, management expects WIP will be reduced by year-end."

More confirmation that any possible turn around won't take place till next year. I plan to average down before the end of year. This report didn't have any surprises for those that follow the stock. I was wrong in that the dividend was not eliminated but is still likely in my view.

"In addition, NFI received $22 million in Canadian and UK government wage subsidies, to assist with the retention of skilled personnel, in the first quarter of 2021 and has not received any grants in 2022 Q1. "

I remember having discussions with one board and CEO in the construction sector over a year ago about the challenge they would face if business didn't pick up as CEWS wound down.
 

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Discussion Starter #42
Share price continued to fall with the rest of the market. I had an order in just above $10.20 that never hit (52 week low 10.39). The SP has climbed back up to $13.50 on lower volume. I am not considering jumping in at these levels but may do so if there are some positive announcements over the summer. Would also entertain a purchase if it heads back down to $10ish. It would be a very speculative play for me. This is a very jittery market right now and there are better stocks to buy. If the B of C and US fed maintain trajectory or rate hikes we will have a very bumpy market.
 

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Discussion Starter #43
Bus maker NFI to close North Dakota plant to cut costs (msn.com)

DE:US released its quarterly today and ended the day down 14%. It is somewhat reassuring that other companies are seeing the supply chain struggles reflected in their SP. However, if companies like DE and CAT are adjusting their guidance further down it does not bode well for the sector overall. Supply chain issues have been further hampered by the lockdown in China. Some are beginning to question if this is an attempt to bring down the US economy. The S&P fell below 20% for the year interday. Canada is only down 6%.
 

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My worry is that closing the ND plant may have further implications with NAFTA or Chinese imports.
 

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I sold this a while ago.
Not a fan of it.

I see the potential, but I rather have my money elsewhere. I agree this could be a decent entry for a longer term play, but I'm already out.

I have looked at it just now again after seeing this thread, I am still not convinced. If it dipped out of the 20's, I may reconsider. I am not a buyer at current prices but maybe in the future if the deal deepens.
Checked up on the company again after seeing this thread (again).

I can't wrap my head around it still and I'm glad I sold when I did in the 20's.

In the single digits, it would be a bargain. I thought I would have already re-entered at this point, but I just can't. At $9, I think it would be something to consider.
 

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Discussion Starter #46 (Edited)
@kcowan There is still a plant in Minnesota so I am hopeful that doesn't have a major effect on the buy american initiatives in the US. I haven't been able to determine if the plant closure is temporary or permanent. It doesn't sound temporary. Wouldn't a permanent closure signal that the order backlogs aren't as many as one thought and the supply chain issues although real are not the only issue?

@KaeJS I may throw more good money after bad and consider buying in at $10 after looking into the closure a bit more. If there is some good news come fall and it heads upwards from here I would average down.
 

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Yes I guess we won't know until the order backlog becomes obvious. These are trying times for such marginal companies!
Yes, but being marginal is where the big change in fortunes can come.
I'm hoping that creditors will be a bit patient.

Programs like the EPA "clean bus" initiative are dumping a LOT of money, and NFI and others should benefit... if they can figure out supply chain problems.
 

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I think marginal players like NFI end up at the back end of the line when it comes to accessing chips when there is such a shortage. It hurts them disproportionately and I think creditors and shareholders know that. The question really is when will this chip crisis break and how long does everyone 'wait' for the breakthrough. I think NFI has some good EV product. It is just that they need to be able to get them out the door and on the streets.
 
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