Canadian Money Forum banner
1 - 20 of 50 Posts

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,342 Posts
Discussion Starter · #1 ·
I tried to find a thread on this stock but was not successful. My apologies if there is one started elsewhere. There has been a lot of volatility across the market lately. This one seems to have been taken out to the woodshed recently on a what I would call an average quarterly report. I would admit that it has had a good run over the past few years. Anybody have any opinions as to whether or not this is just market volatility or is there more to its recent downtrend? I am definitely ready to deploy some funds into the market soon and have a few orders that I keep looking at. So far my orders haven't been triggered. Things are starting to get interesting to me across the market. Too bad interest can also cause some hesitancy as to what to buy and at what price. Perhaps I am more comfortable 10 years into DIY as I have seen swings of 5-10% in either direction for a few of my holdings. I see a lot of possible opportunities on the horizon. Is NFI one? Any reason for me not to dig deeper with my own due diligence at this time.


Cheers
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
4,891 Posts
I too, have been watching this one for a while...closed yesterday @ 32.50.
pardon the pun, but would anyone consider taking a flyer on this one, at these levels?
div is something like 4.7%...
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
13,266 Posts
I bought it very recently at slightly higher levels than current prices on the premise of the backlog in orders and bus fleets must be continually renewed (or at least maintained), i.e. more so than auto or auto parts manufacturing. The news some jobs are moving to the USA is not material other than severance pay and actually ongoing payroll will likely be less with US workers than expensive Canadians. A current P/E of 8 is compelling. What is not to like?

P.S. Don't get fixated on the dividend yield. That is a bad way to choose stocks. Choose the stock on its own merits and consider reasonable yield as one's lifeline to shore, being paid to wait.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
4,891 Posts
I bought it very recently at slightly higher levels than current prices on the premise of the backlog in orders and bus fleets must be continually renewed (or at least maintained), i.e. more so than auto or auto parts manufacturing. The news some jobs are moving to the USA is not material other than severance pay and actually ongoing payroll will likely be less with US workers than expensive Canadians. A current P/E of 8 is compelling. What is not to like?

P.S. Don't get fixated on the dividend yield. That is a bad way to choose stocks. Choose the stock on its own merits and consider reasonable yield as one's lifeline to shore, being paid to wait.
(aye,aye cap'n...not fixated on divvy...just thought I'd mention it) :very_drunk:
plus, of course, if /when the stock price rises, that div yield will (probably) drop, no?
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
13,266 Posts
It might be a bit too early as there is no demonstration of an up trend yet.
Fair enough. Most times it is best to wait for an uptrend. Less important for me in this instance when I was selling another 'sliding' stock to take the tax loss and put it into this 'sliding' stock. It is all relative.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
7,405 Posts
This is on my RSP! Coulda woulda shoulda sold at $60 and waited. But I woulda put the proceeds in another slider. Maybe not as steep! Hindsight is a great teacher...I still like its prospects and I think it got caught up in fear of the US actions. My cost was $10 after 5 years of 6.25% interest on their convertible.

On the positive side, my mandatory withdrawal will decline to almost half next year...
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,342 Posts
Discussion Starter · #11 ·
I still have this on my watchlist. I was travelling Friday so I missed an opportunity to make some purchases. I will see what Monday brings. If the slide continues I plan to buy something. I've never quite been able to pull the trigger on TD so that is where my attention is currently. I think NFI still is worth a look and will continue to monitor.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
4,563 Posts
I have never owned NFI, except more than likely in a fund back when it was an income trust.

Probably doesn't make much sense to chase individual small and mid cap stocks. I do still own a few and am trying to weed them out of portfolio. May be better to hold them as part of an etf or other fund? (I at present have no etfs!)
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
915 Posts
I've been adding to this position; good long term prospects and very reasonable valuation.

As a typical TSX darling stock, everybody jumped aboard even though the valuation was very high at times. Of course, first hint of bad news and the air went out very fast. Typical euphoria to despondency when the underlying business hasn't changed significantly.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
13,266 Posts
And hence it will likely remain a volatile stock for years to come for that very reason. Can do no wrong....then it is in the penalty box....then back to can do no wrong, etc.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
11,534 Posts
They've got investor day, I think their prospects when public transit spending increases will be good.
Until then...

Their EBITDA looks really nice for this size of company.
it's important to note they have operations and customers in North America and Europe.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
13,266 Posts
I believe the European play was simply an acquisition of the British double decker bus company which may, or may not, pay dividends for them. I am not sure how well that translates to buses in the EU. Regardless, I believe they have a strong position in the NA market and once transit authorities start buying more buses again, and especially electric if Biden is successful, NFI is positioned as one of 3? such players in this market.

I am currently underwater in this holding and suffered the dividend cut but this remains a long term hold. The pandemic is merely a temporary setback that will resolve itself before the end of 2021.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
11,534 Posts
I believe the European play was simply an acquisition of the British double decker bus company which may, or may not, pay dividends for them. I am not sure how well that translates to buses in the EU. Regardless, I believe they have a strong position in the NA market and once transit authorities start buying more buses again, and especially electric if Biden is successful, NFI is positioned as one of 3? such players in this market.

I am currently underwater in this holding and suffered the dividend cut but this remains a long term hold. The pandemic is merely a temporary setback that will resolve itself before the end of 2021.
I think the pandemic drop hit them hard, but they recovered really fast IMO

You have to consider
1. Public transit is not very popular during pandemic, which will delay things.
2. Governments that would buy these products are broke, due to the pandemic. It will be hard for them to bring up the cash.

I think once those two isues get addressed, this industry could skyrocket.
1. People being okay with public transit, and it becoming a political priority
2. Money becomes available, either federal or other sources.


Since you're underwater (I'm not) how do you think their relative position is to the competition.

also I like electric commercial vehicles, since the technology is transitioning into them being incredibly competitive and even superior to the ICE options. Particularly for buses, also garbage trucks and delivery vehicles.
 
1 - 20 of 50 Posts
Top