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Discussion Starter #1
OK, so i want to present my stock picks as to currently what i'm invested in...always good to get insight from fresh perspectives.

About me: I'd consider myself a growth focused aggressive investor. I'm aiming to have a million dollar portfolio by the time i turn 40 and plan on leveraging, using the SM etc. to get there. Currently 33.

Here is what i hold right now and my rationale of holding onto some of the stocks i have:

Barrick -ABX (Gain: -6%, Portfolio Holding: 5%)
I have been holding ABX for the better part of a year now and have seen this stock do nada despite Gold Bullion prices rallying. When Barrick removed its hedge against gold prices, I thought the stock would move up but so far has not reciprocated. Recently the stock has witnessed a lot of insider buying which is always a good sign. While watching this stock do nothing is frustrating - I’m holding on for at least a year to see whether the outlook for gold materializes.

Cenovus – CVE (Gain: 4%, Portfolio Holding: 3%): I acquired Cenovus with the Encana split and am holding at present time. The stock hasn’t done much for me, but its too early to tell and it apparently has some good assets.

Research in Motion – RIM (Gain -6%, PH: 10%): This stock is still trading at very low multiples, compared to its peer group and those who are holding onto it will do well. I bought this stock at 50ish and sold at 77 only to buy back at 82 again. I’m down right now but the smart phone industry has room for all players to grow, even if RIM loses market share - next Earnings report should be good but if they miss analysts forecasts by a few cents expect it dive. For that reason, I will have a sharp stop loss order pre-earnings

Horizon Beta Pro Oil Bull –HOU (Gain 15%, PH: 5%): My leveraged play on oil, the only way is up for oil, and HOU while risky is one of the best ways to profit

Methanex –MX (Gain 46%, PH: 3%): My only regret is not buying more shares than I did – MX will do well in an improving economy and has a decent yield to boot. Methanex makes Methanol a raw material for various products/chemicals and also a fuel

Dendreon – DNDN ( Gain 34%, PH: 9%): Dendreon can easily be a 10 bagger. It is also one of my most speculative buys. The company is in the process of getting its drug Provenge approved from the FDA, which is used to treat Prostrate Cancer. The key date to watch is April 30th, when the FDA ruling comes in. I expect the ruling to be favorable and so do a lot of other investors, which perhaps explains why it has gained 30% within the last month or so. If all goes to plan, this stock may be @ 200ish in 4-5 years

Encana –ECA (Gain 16% PH: 4%): Encana is a solid blue chip company in the oil sands space. I may get out of this stock in the near future though given how natural gas is falling.

Google – GOOG (Gain 40%, PH: 15%): Google is a money making machine and I expect the shares to reach 650ish fairly quickly. Trades at very high multiples, typical of a growth company but I’m reassured by the huge economic moat that this company seems to possess. I don’t see anyone challenging its competitive advantage – yahoo, bing et al. This company has a monopoly on internet ad revenue.


Apple – AAPL (Gain 11% , PH: 10%): Apple portrays a hip culture and charges a premium for any device it makes. I was a convert when I started using the i-phone. Even though market cap is $200B, it has such a low share of the smartphone, laptop market, that there is strong upward potential. I wouldn’t bet against this company and Steve Jobbs capabilities. My only regret is not buying it @ 100 and then at 130 and then at 160….i was waiting for this stock to correct but it never did (ultimately bought it @ $200 a share). The stock is also trading at lower multiples after restatement of earnings in accordance with GAAP – that along with the i-pad suggests a great buying opportunity even at these levels

City Bank C (Gain 19%, PH: 6%): I recently added to the stock @ 3.5 and it has repaid my enthusiasm. I think the stock is depressed because of the Government’s intention to dump its holdings in the next couple of months – after that the stock can easily go 5 or 6 dollars. Although shareholder equity has been diluted, its been beaten up so bad, that the only way for the stock to go is up. Will also do well with the recovering economy

FNX Mining (Gain 10% , PH: 5%): I love their business model and FNX is my commodity play that will do really well with the improving economy. A cyclical stock that will go up as world economy expands and Nickel and Copper prices go up. This stock incidentally was TSX best performing stock over the last 10 years I believe

Uranium One – UUU (Gain 3%, PH: 3%): More and more nuclear reactors being built which will increase the demand for Uranium. The only knock against Uranium one is that its major mines are in Kazhakistan ( I believe) which has some political unrest.

Temple Reit – TR.UN (Gain 25%, excluding dividends, PH: 5%): My sole REIT, which owns hotels in Fort McMurray. Every quarter I get $215 for just holding this stock, so expect to make back my money just in dividends within the next couple of years , not to mention the capital appreciation.

MWJ: Direxion Daily Mid Cap Bull 3X(Gain 9%, PH: 3%): I’m betting on an economic recovery and want to amplify my return on investments. I might add to this position fairly soon – specially if there is a correction. I like these instruments, as you don’t have to spend precious time stock picking and they give you quick returns (as well as losses).

WLC: Western Lithium Corporation (Gain -14%, PH: 4%): If the future is in electrical and hybrid cars, then WLC might be a good buy. The company is sitting on the fifth largest reserves of lithium. This stock is a speculative bet. Still 3-4 years away from production. I’m looking for a ten bagger (fingers crossed).
Stocks I own in my TFSA:
HNU: Horizon’s beta pro natural gas bull (Gain -48%, PH: 2%): I made a lot of money trading in and out of HNU, but seems like my luck has run out. I think natural gas prices are on their way down and the contango effect hasn’t helped. I expect to be out of this stock within a month or so.


EDC: Direxion Emerging Market Bull 3X (Gain: 33%, PH: 4%): If you believe that the emerging market is going to outperform the developed world, then why not put a more substantive bet on it. Great vehicle for trading and I expect to make a lot of money playing EDC.

Osisko: OSK (Gain 5%, PH: 3%): Another gold play, however I might be pulling out of this stock and sticking with Barrick

Overall gain since Oct. 2008, 52% . Total holdings $114K approx. 20K is my own equity, 34K HELOC and the rest on leverage).
 

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Have you ever put pencil to paper in an attempt to figure out what sort of returns will be required to reach your goals? Based on your current portfolio values and your investing timeline, you will need to earn a CAGR of 36.7% to reach $1M by age 40. The probability of that occurring will be remote at best even with the amplification of leverage.

I wish you good luck with your investing endeavours and urge you to reassess your objectives and set your targets at more realistic levels.
 

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Discussion Starter #4 (Edited)
Scomac, you are right, it is aggressive i'm hoping that i get there by 43, but no harm in trying. I should have clarified what i meant by getting to $1M ...it would also include any real estate investments. Currently i'm in the process of renting out my condo, in which i have about 90K equity. I also plan on contributing b/w 30-40K per year (assuming my job situation remains the same), based on that and the amplification by margin, the returns worked out to be about 10% per year. I will though reduce my leverage within the next 2-3 years.

Andrewf, lets see....i look forward to corrections, i dont think there is going to be more than a significant dip within the immediate future and if it does happen, i look forward to it, it will be a great buying opportunity.
 

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From a diversification point of view, you are in Commodities, Oil/Gas, Tech, Drug, Finance, REIT and you have 17 stock positions. From a stats point of view that should be ample diversification, depending on your weighting of course. (Seems heavy in commodities and oil/gas)

My two questions are:
1. How are you selecting your businesses/stocks? What is your decision for buying a business
2. Have you figured out your downside risk on the business/stocks you own? (Saying it can only go to 0 doesn’t really count as an analysis)
 

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Hi all,
I am new comer in trading world. I would like to learn more how to pick the good stocks to buy?
I am currently college student and have no student loan.
I am willing to put $1000 to begin.
Is penny stock good investment?
Thanks all for your help
If you have $1000, I wouldn't even bother with ETFs, much less individual equities. Look at index mutual funds. If you're a novice, you should definitely stay away from penny stocks.

Also, as a student it's probably more prudent just to hold it in a savings account in case you need the cash. Not sexy, but you have plenty of time ahead of you to invest in the market. Investing $1000 now won't get you appreciably further ahead.
 

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ABX - You can lower your risk and keep your return the same by selling ABX and buying one of the gold indexes like GDX or the HUI. But, imo, in the longterm the large cap golds won't be able to keep up with the return from actual gold or quality juniors/mid-tiers. As price of gold rises, the large caps won't be able to replenish reserves fast enough due to peak gold. GDXJ is a decent junior ETF.

HOU, MWJ, EDC & HNU - Not something you should hold for long-term. Do you know how the daily rebalancing works on these things?

UUU & ECA: Good holds for at least the next 1.5 years.

Saying things like "the only way for the stock to go is up", "I made a lot of money trading in and out of HNU, but seems like my luck has run out" combined with your massive leverage has me worried for you. Do you have a strategy when you trade in and out of stocks?
 

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Discussion Starter #9
Steve Jay
Yes, 17 stocks, but 3 leveraged trading tools.... the leveraged stocks are trading investments, i don't stay in them too long. For example, i got into EDC when it fell to $90 a few weeks ago. I have a target in mind and will be out when it reaches that ($150).

As for choosing businesses, my strategy is usually a top down approach. Macro analysis followed by sectors which i think are going to do well. I believe that stocks rise with the rising tide, so i focus first on my general outlook of the market and then follow it up with detailed analysis of what sectors one should be into. When looking for stocks, i focus on stocks that i think may possess a competitive advantage (Google, Apple) or have been beaten down to a degree that makes their evaluation favorable. All that aside, i still want to buy stocks at a decent price, so I do use P/E ratios and run screens (P/B, quick ratio etc). I'm heavy/bullish on commodities because i believe the emerging markets are will all the action will be and commodities will do well. That said my highest weighting is on Information Technology (Google,RIM, Apple) as i think all are quality companies to own for the long run.

I also focus on sector rotation, i was bullish on canadian FIs, and was invested in Royal for 5-6 years, i added to my position when the stock fell to 30ish and got out when the stock hit 56 (though i still hold in my RRSP account). At the present time, i believe Canadian Financials are appropriately valued and won't be getting in for at least a few months.

Finally i'm becoming much of a buy and hold type investor now, but in 2009, i was trading the swings....i found the environment very volatile to be simply buy and hold.

My exit strategy is to get out when a stock goes below 25% of my purchase price, but have not exercised this religiously, something i need to work on.


MoneyMaker interesting to see your take on CitiGroup, i was actually deliberating b/w City and Bof A - the analyst outlook for Bof A seems very positive. What stocks would you recommend currently, if not any of the stocks i picked, i'm always interested in learning?

$1600 Gold by 2011, i like your monicker, why are you so bullish on gold? I take it that you are more of a fan of gold bullion than gold stocks, but it seems that Gold stocks have not moved at all in relation to the price of Gold, do you think this would not be a good entry point to get into stocks? HNU, EDC, HOU are trading vehicles, i don't intend on holding for the long term, i'm out of HOU today.
 

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Why am I so bullish on gold? That's a loaded question. Think of gold as the currency of the only nation (let's call it country X) that can't print more and more money. The price of gold in each currency is the exchange rate with country X. Over the past decade you have seen and will continue to see the countries of the world devaluing their currencies (pushing gold steadily higher) for one reason or another (paying off debt or staying competitve).

How else will broke countries pay off their debts? Raise taxes causing rich people/companies to bring their tax revenues elsewhere? Cut spending? See Greece as an example of what happens when you try that. Both solutions are wildly unpopular. So, instead they print money to push the problem into the future.

Here is a longer answer: http://www.gata.org/node/8281

Excerpt:
That brings us to the favorite country of everyone in this room, Canada. I suspect that the Canadian authorities will be forced to deal with reality soon. Despite the hedge funds' love affair with the Canadian dollar, the economic and financial fundamentals in this country don't support the current level of the loonie. We are attached at the hip economically to the United States and as our dollar rises, our manufacturing industries or what's left of them are being destroyed. Budget deficits are exploding at all levels of government.

One year ago the feds didn't have one, but now the deficit is annualizing somewhere north of $60 billion. Ontario is homing in on $25 billion and even hydrocarbon power Alberta has ruefully admitted that its deficit forecast has risen to $6.9 billion, as very low natural gas prices, among other things, take their toll.

Bank of Canada head Mark Carney and Finance Minister Jim Flaherty know these problems all too well, although much of the public seems blithely unaware, and I am eagerly awaiting Carney and Flaherty's response. Rumors of aggressive quantitative easing are growing, adding yet another nation to the expanding list practicing this dark art.
Stock of companies selling real products/services will provide adequate protection but will be outperformed by gold and other metals, agriculture and energy... IMO.

There is still a window of opportunity over the next week or two before a nice rally into the end of April.
 

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all in all, a smart, lean portfolio that's less aggressive than appears at first glance. All in all, i quite like it. Not for myself, although i do hold a number of these stocks. And not because i think this is the yellow brick road to one million. I like it because it's reasonably diversified, because a few of the picks are startlingly good in their sector (osisko for example), and because there are some unobtrusive strong conservative holdings beneath the speculative plays.

what i don't like is the debt ratio. I don't understand how the stated margin from the broker can be so generous, since some of the stocks are unmarginable or marginable only at 25%. However, that's a headache for the broker & the investor, not for this forum.

re dendreon: this is a popular stock with a wild history. I've lost track of the story, but how many times has this often-a-bridesmaid been on the cusp of FDA approval for a new blockbuster drug.

there is a school of thought that says buy emerging pharmas as they ride up to nose-bleed levels of pre-approval frenzy. Then at some judicious moment prior to expected approval date, the pros bail & begin to short. The reason is that the vast majority of emerging pharmas get rejected, not approved. Statistically, there is a probability of getting this strategy right if one plays enuf juniors. I don't do this myself because i believe one needs close to an MD degree to be able to analyze a stem cell's prospects. But many do. It's a popular approach.

barrick. A decent dinosaur to own if one keeps the monster staked inside a sturdy stockade of otm short calls & puts, which greatly increase the return that otherwise would be limited to the relatively puny dividend. Barrick is an ideal stock for such a strategy as it trades in a band that inches up at a lilliputian pace in long, slow heaves, ie it's easier to keep moving the option stakes & constructing probabilities than for something like, say, kinross.

selling osisko to replace w barrick is a drastic flip. Perhaps some mid-cap gold as a halfway house ? or the gdx that 1600gold suggests ?

apple & rimm are a nice pair - safer than holding just one of them - but i'd monitor the combined weighting on a daily basis because it's a high 20% of the portfolio. Also re weightings i might beef up financials. The truly testosterone might look at distressed euro banks, but i'd still pick a more cautious big beefy canadian, even if it's recently grown to the size of a sumo wrestler. Maybe one with overseas muscle like scotiabank.
 

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Also, for a non-moving large company like Barrick I would have sold covered calls for two months out at a 10% premium. Using this simple strategy, you'd probably have made money off of ABX by now.
 

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always sell covered calls in barrick. I sell further out in time than 2 months, though - contrary to traditional theory. That's because time value in the 2-month premium has already begun to decay, and what one wants to sell is, of course, max time value.

so i'd sell calls further out in time, when the time component of theoretical value is still robust. The julys, say, or even the octobers if a bidder presents an exceptionally attractive price, rather than the aprils.

another reason for selling options further out in time is that the hidden "management cost" of each option trading decision is less if one only has to work an individual company's trades 3 times a year instead of 6 times. At 600 or 700 trades per annum, the management cost of each decision becomes significant.
 

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Discussion Starter #14
Humble pie, Gold @ 1600
Yes i'm contemplating getting rid of either some Barrick or Osisko...my current exposure to gold stocks is 8% of my portfolio and i want to bring that to perhaps 5% (this might just happen by default without selling either as i increase my exposure to other sectors). What clouds my judgement is my outlook for gold, which i am not that clear on as i once was. I've kept Barrick as a hedge against inflationary pressures and to keep a diversified portfolio and then added Osisko, as i think this company has a lot of upside potential. However i'm turning a bit bearish on gold itself. From what i understand, increases in price of gold assumes a strong inflationary environment and I think we are a long ways away from that. For that reason alone i see gold trading in a range for the next few months (even till the end of 2010), so perhaps gold stocks are better used as a trading tool rather than buy and hold. The other reality is that in real terms gold has not gone anywhere from 1981 to present date - yes this may be obfuscated by the fact that a lot of the central banks have been damping their gold but it still makes me a bit leery.

I don't know enough of puts and calls to use them, it is something that i want to read up on a lot more before i seriously consider using these tools.

Gold @ 1600, i don't agree with your scenario of Canada. Canada's debt/defecit is smallest amongst other industrialized countries and the commodities play which is Canada's strength will ensure that Canada will do better than the U.S in general. Canada is lucky that it has been blessed with so many natural resources. The U.S economy is in shambles and the deficit is just out of control. This year the budget deficit will be what 1.3 Trillion? Compare that to Canada's piddly $60B or whatever the number is...

Humble Pie, re: Dendreon, yes it has been the bridesmaid before as well, but i would be really really, really surprised if the FDA turns down approval of the drug this time around. Not to take a chance though , i am contemplating two options, one is to sell my additional loading (100 shares) on the stock a day or two before the announcement, keep the rest (200 shares) and put a sharp stop loss order if the FDA approval doesn't go through or to put a stop loss order on the entire damn thing. If FDA approval fails, the stock will careen to the single digits very quickly. Dendreon has been shrouded with some really obscure swings...case in point when it fell from the mid twenties to single digits 6-8 months ago in a minute of trading for no apparent reason whatsoever. SEC had to intervene but found nothing phoney about the trades that were placed. Go figure.

About Canadian Banks, yeah i plan to add, i wanted to get into Royal recently when it was @ 52, but missed out. That said, i've got a lot of Royal in my RRSP and my wife's RRSP account, so i feel i still have decent exposure. BNS is definitely the way to go for int'l exposure, but i think it might be duplicating a bit of what i will get through City. As such if i do add to FIs it will be either Royal or TD.
 

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great thinking-prep on dendreon. Don't mean to harp on this stock, but the fact is we cannot post a tome on each of your holdings, while at the same time i'm sure an identical clever strategy has gone into each of your other picks. So we're just using dndn as an example of way-to-go.

for my own part, i'd certainly sell out all of my original dndn investment in dollars plus a generous margin ... maybe something like 150% of orig inv ... and i'd certainly stick with the rest, as these will all be freebies. And again just speaking for myself i wouldn't wait until "the day or 2 before" because 1) tons of pro players will be executing this strategy and 2) in my experience, which is quite limited, FDA approval announcements don't appear on schedule.

just out of curiosity, i moseyed over to the dndn option tables to see what the open interest positions have to say for themselves.

uh-oh. There it was. Large open call positions are not bullish signs, although novices always believe that this is the case. On the contrary, large open call positions are indicators that pro traders have already shorted the stock & bought these calls as a hedge.

in dendreon, there it was. The sharks have - quite sensibly - overshot april because they know fda announcements don't always appear on schedule. Instead they've gone to the may calls. And there they are, all the submerged short sharks, quietly feeding below the surface. Do you see them, fg ? in the 40, the 45 & the 50 dollar calls. Esp in the 45s. More than than 17 thousand of them ...

they're fairly jolly in the puts, too, apparently thinking for the most part that dndn won't drop much below the 17.50 range if fda approval snafus, while some institutions appear to have bought a long-stock-long-put combo (ie bullish but hedged.)

what fun.
 

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I would consider selling some of your apple and taking the profits.

And considering mortgage debt (you mention condo has debt, and I am assuming that you also have a prinicple residence with a mortgage)...I personally wouldn't want to be so leveraged.

We currently have a market where everything has risen in value, as there is so much cheap money floating around. I am concerned that there may be another leg down, as some of the banks have not written off bad loans, as they can't afford to. (see zerohedge for article) And why all of the debt attention ois on Greece and not on other countries (that owe more) is beyond me.

Good post though....it is cool to see someones else's holdings, and what their reasoning is for holding them.
 

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Discussion Starter #17
I would consider selling some of your apple and taking the profits.

And considering mortgage debt (you mention condo has debt, and I am assuming that you also have a prinicple residence with a mortgage)...I personally wouldn't want to be so leveraged.
Cal, i recently did a mortgage application for the new property we are buying, our debt equity ratio is about 20%. Apart from the investment LOC, i don't have any other debt and once the condo is rented out, it will be a cash free property for me.

A word on leverage, i have taken out $34K of investments on my LOC and put in equity of $20K over the last year and a half. Currently my portfolio worth is 82K (excluding margin), equating to a gain of about 51%. I have ability to add to my equity positions through an untapped 30K LOC if i need to, so not worried about a market correction - neither do i think i'm over leveraged.

Why would you suggest getting rid of apple, i feel that apple has room to grow and as a pair holding with RIM, helps me hedge my risks. My assumption here is that the smartphone market which is currently about 20% of the total cell phone market will witness aggressive growth over the next few years -specially as smartphones become mainstream in the developing world. The two companies primed to take advantage are RIM and Apple. I see both growing, but even if one gets hammered, it will be to the other's advantage. (In my ideal scenario, i see both growing irrespective of marketshare, because of the sheer growth of the market itself). I'm more bullish on Apple as compared to RIM. Its more diversified in terms of products and it has mid cap characteristics, in that its share of cellphone, computers etc. is about 10-15% in each segment eventhough its market cap is now bigger than Walmart. The jury is still out on the ipad and here again i see a big win for the company.

Recent buys and sells:
Sold HOU @ 9.4 for a 15% $810 dollar gain. I held this for about a month or so.

Decreased my holding in Barrick by 1/3. Currently hold 100 shares, sold 50 @ $40.7
Bought Ford @ 13.5....330 shares. I'm looking to increase my holding in Ford as the company is gaining in market share, is the best american car company and is benefiting from Toyota missteps. I also think long term when Americans start spending money, annual car sales will go back to pre-recession levels of approx. 15million cars per annum (currently 11million cars),this company will benefit.

Sold HNU @ $7...leveraged ETFs are a double edged sword - had a capital loss of 50% on this one ($2000)
Sold ECA @ $33.5, with the price of natural gas so low, i don't see Encana going anywhere in the near future. Might be a good long term hold for value investors (trading @ 6X multiples) but not for me.
Bought Suncor (SU) @ 31.3, like the general dirction of oil and i think the comnpany has fallen to a value where it makes valuation lucrative.I sold last time @ 38 and will hope to ride this stock again in the near term horizon.

Stock on the radar: VXX (VIX ETN), i like this ETN as a hedge to the market increase and potential corrections. I'm looking to buy b/w 10-15 dollars price range - currently @ 22.5. Its based on the volatility of the VIX index and in times and is inversely correlated with sharp market decreases (-90% or so).
 

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To clarify.... you said you have a combined 20% equity in both properties. Not bad, just make sure that you keep the other place rented out. (Ha...like you needed to be told that!)

And I didn't say to sell Apple. Just that I would consider taking some profits.
 

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Hey Devinci

I too was wondering what stocks were good ,and how to find them.In 1999 I read a book on Warren Buffet ,the worlds greatest investor. His stock had averaged 35% over the years since conception (1965) I bought several a shares uin 2001 still have them,they have not even come close to averaging 10%,and this is the worlds best investor.. I'm not complaining ,most stocks did far worse. What I'm saying is you have $1000.00 big deal win lose you will learn something ,go for it. Keep reading what out there in librarys and on the net. You have nothing to lose ,as you probably won't lose the whole $1000.00 and once your invested your going to be more interested than ever and gain all kinds of knowlege.. Keep in mind that experts are jumping out of windows every day and not one single mutual fund has beat the s&p over the last 25 years .( or so I have read) so that tell us know one knows what to pick...
I wish you well,your still a kid so dive in,take your chances...and have fun .The main thing is have fun,like gambling at a asino but with out the house stacked against you ( or is it)..ha.
 

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Keep in mind that experts are jumping out of windows every day and not one single mutual fund has beat the s&p over the last 25 years .( or so I have read) so that tell us know one knows what to pick...
Yea but mutual funds have many other limiting factors. You pay someone to actively manage them, they may make unnecessary trades to justify their job, maybe poor tax efficiency, maybe poor timing. Their hands are tied imo

I think it's more efficient to manage your own money once you have enough to afford the trading fees
 
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