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Discussion Starter #1
Currency quotes at Yahoo finance. All of these are versus US Dollar:

Russian Ruble -5.74%
Mexican Peso -5.15%
Norwegian Krone -2.64%
Canadian Dollar -1.60%

We (Canadians) appear to be faring the best of these oil producing nations. Look at the absolute destruction of the Ruble and Peso... these are catastrophic moves in currencies.

This is a giant CAD drop as well, but milder than similar nations. Thank goodness we have diversified our national economy to be more than just oil. Even Norway is taking it much harder than us tonight.
 

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I think Canadian investors should consider world standard reserve currencies as potential hedges for wealth protection: the US dollar, and gold.

Though personally I don't think the CAD is under too great a threat, mostly thanks to our moves to better diversify the Canadian economy.
 

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Currency quotes at Yahoo finance. All of these are versus US Dollar:

Russian Ruble -5.74%
Mexican Peso -5.15%
Norwegian Krone -2.64%
Canadian Dollar -1.60%

We (Canadians) appear to be faring the best of these oil producing nations. Look at the absolute destruction of the Ruble and Peso... these are catastrophic moves in currencies.

This is a giant CAD drop as well, but milder than similar nations. Thank goodness we have diversified our national economy to be more than just oil. Even Norway is taking it much harder than us tonight.

speaking of diversification did y'll know that google made montreal its world HQ for artificial intelligence development. Google previously had a research facility in this ville but bought much larger new building near the université de montreal & mcGill campuses - where the AI wizards are working - & ramped up staff.

montreal has also long been a hub for game development, with its related entertainment focus. This is attracting increased e-talent from europe. Persons closer to the scene in the GTA/guelph/london axis say that e-immigration is also favouring their region.

lastly - although this is out of my range - vancouver has also established itself as a hotbed for digital entertainment production. Everything from music to cinema to media to television.
 

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I am waiting for further loonie softness to sub-73 before converting a lump sum of USD I don't need to CAD. Been waiting for a year or so already having been asleep at the wheel in late 2018.
 

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I think the move in the last few days says it all. I have long been pounding the table at diversifying out of CAD but for some reason taken flack from it on this forum. "Why would you want to hold USD when you're paid and spend in CAD? Why would you want to miss out on tax benefits?" It's ridiculous to have a home country bias and your entire portfolio into an economy that is heavily weighted energy, banking oligopoly , and RE. Our interest rates had the furthest to fall, and yet the CAD still held unwarranted strength last Monday after SA and Russia news broke. This is why I don't touch the TSX index and hold about 5% cash in CAD, enough to pay the bills and that's it.
 

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I am waiting for further loonie softness to sub-73 before converting a lump sum of USD I don't need to CAD. Been waiting for a year or so already having been asleep at the wheel in late 2018.
Geez...that happened fast. I have taken some notice today on closing of 0.718. I need to get my USD out of an HISA and get this stuff converted!
 

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This is why I like CAD hedged ETFs. There is enough stock risk you don't need to worry about commodity prices and the petro dollar fluctuating wildly or interest rate changes
 

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This is why I like CAD hedged ETFs. There is enough stock risk you don't need to worry about commodity prices and the petro dollar fluctuating wildly or interest rate changes
They have significant long term costs though. About 1%/year. After several years, you're almost certainly better off with the currency risk than the guaranteed lower returns.
 

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They have significant long term costs though. About 1%/year. After several years, you're almost certainly better off with the currency risk than the guaranteed lower returns.
Absolutely. I wouldn't buy a hedged product for all the tea in China. The fall of the loonie right now is a good reason not to hedge because those imports will cost more shortly and I can convert coveted USD to pay for the cost increases!
 

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Just out of curiosity is there a way for a retail investor to express a bullish USD/CAD pair that will have some leverage?

I have about 50% of my portfolio in USD and added to that last week with some DLR. I have also looked at an ETF like UUP but still not enough return for my liking and would not express the bearish CAD view. Any suggestions?
 

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Just out of curiosity is there a way for a retail investor to express a bullish USD/CAD pair that will have some leverage?

I have about 50% of my portfolio in USD and added to that last week with some DLR. I have also looked at an ETF like UUP but still not enough return for my liking and would not express the bearish CAD view. Any suggestions?
I'd say taking any leveraged bet this week is nuts. You'll have better odds at an online casino (because the physical ones are closed)
 

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I'd say taking any leveraged bet this week is nuts. You'll have better odds at an online casino (because the physical ones are closed)
what's bullish for the CAD? Oil continues to drop, and the government has explicity stated its going to help Canadians with groceries, lost wages, and mortgage payments. How is that anything but negative for the CAD?
 

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Canadian dollar still dropping.. Currently at 0.70 USD. The WTI benchmark today is roughly the same as it was in January 2016 when the loonie dropped to 68 cents.
Should we expect oil (and the loonie) to drop further or is this the bottom?
 

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Canadian dollar still dropping.. Currently at 0.70 USD. The WTI benchmark today is roughly the same as it was in January 2016 when the loonie dropped to 68 cents.
Should we expect oil (and the loonie) to drop further or is this the bottom?
Don't know but I converted a significant 5 digit sum of surplus USD to CAD today because this was simply the best opportunity in years to capture the discount. Not greedy and no regrets even if it drops further.
 

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I am leaning the other way, I think it will go significantly lower when our RE market gets hit. People have flown to the USD for safety before and will do again.
 
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