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Yeah, Canadian and US markets are going to continue to be susceptible to drops with all the uncertainty. It's not going to stabilize until we're on the downslope in number of cases and some of the economic numbers come out to give a better feel of what the damage is looking like.
 

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A reasonable rule of thumb to invest by is that you can expect the stock market to drop more if the news coming out is "worse then expected"

The point to keep in mind is the above is not the same thing as "worse then now".

Always keep that in mind. The stock market will begin its assent when the news is about as bad as it can be. I agree, I am not sure we are there yet but when we are there I am absolutely sure, I will not think we are. I hope that helps. lol
 

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Amazon is also stopping the fulfillment of non-essential third party (FBA) orders.
I think companies are being responsible.
1. It's the right thing to do, considering the circumstances it's going to be bad, say COVID-19, and you'll be excused.
2. Getting blamed as responsible for deaths is bad for business.
3. Dead customers buy less.
4. The government is making a lot of noise that they'll help keep businesses and individuals from collapsing due to this crisis. You better stay on their good side.
 

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I don't think so.

I think the drops will continue for rest of the month. At least.
That's what I was suggesting. MArkets went up today, I say it's going to be a very red week, despite what happened today.
The rest of the month as well.

The US has not got the virus even close to in control. There's clearly thousands of unknown cases walking around.
 

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I'm anxiously waiting to buy. I have been picking up some things like SU and WEF, but not full positions really. Today new lows were set in Canada and the US, so that means that this is likely to continue. Markets aren't even holding a 5 day moving average, let alone a 10 or 20 day moving average, which are some of the first signs of a bottom.

I get the feeling once we're all sitting in a mandatory quarantine that we'll be looking at the new normal. Likely cases will drop, but not disappear, and so we'll have some kind of awkward state where you have to be tested to do anything. Everything slows, but maybe stops collapsing.
 

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Markets aren't even holding a 5 day moving average, let alone a 10 or 20 day moving average, which are some of the first signs of a bottom.
Australia is down another 7% today (Wednesday) and I bet the TSX follows suit. I think we are in for a lot more ratcheting down 5%, up 2% with the ultimate bottom not yet in sight. We have a double-whammy of this SARS-2 mess and oil plumbing the deepest basement depths. Oil could get ironed out if the pissing match between Saudi and Russia winds down, but the total uncertainty about even the rough timeline of COVID19 effects, let alone the final outcome for the economy means that it's pure speculation right now. I suspect it will be four more weeks before we even know how many more weeks of lockdown and isolation will be wanted. And we will be lied to or mislead more than once in that time, further exacerbating the uncertainty. The total could easily stretch into July. I think we are in for a rough ride, and when things do settle down, nothing will be the same as it was.
 

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Australia is down another 7% today (Wednesday) and I bet the TSX follows suit. I think we are in for a lot more ratcheting down 5%, up 2% with the ultimate bottom not yet in sight. We have a double-whammy of this SARS-2 mess and oil plumbing the deepest basement depths. Oil could get ironed out if the pissing match between Saudi and Russia winds down, but the total uncertainty about even the rough timeline of COVID19 effects, let alone the final outcome for the economy means that it's pure speculation right now. I suspect it will be four more weeks before we even know how many more weeks of lockdown and isolation will be wanted. And we will be lied to or mislead more than once in that time, further exacerbating the uncertainty. The total could easily stretch into July. I think we are in for a rough ride, and when things do settle down, nothing will be the same as it was.
The thing is people look at the economy as numbers. We've basically pushed pause, and they're trying to figure out measures to keep essentials running.

All restaurants are closed, employees are out of work, the food supply chains have been disrupted, even advertising spend is going to be cut. Vehicle sales and gas sales will drop. That alone is devastating.
But there is no way out of it, that economic activity is GONE.
We can't stimulate it back, you literally can't pay people enough to go out to a restaurant (and you shouldn't right now)

The numbers look bad economically. But the governments appear to be doing the right steps.
Keep food and essentials flowing, prevent the shutdown from causing a financial calamity for individuals and companies directly.

In a year or two we'll be back to normal economic operation, and who knows how long for the mindset and finances of people to recover.

Really that 10% earnings yield is gone this year, but it will be back in 2 years. Assuming the company doesn't go under, and the government has been very clear they don't want lenders to squeeze borrowers, and we'll be back.

Regarding squeezing borrowers, or consumers in general, the government shouldn't stand for it.
When the banks say contact them if you're under financial pressure, I think they're being somewhat honest.
A real estate crash is entirely possible, if people are at home watching Netflix, eating canned food, they might be ok. You shut off their power and leave them to starve in the dark, you have a problem.

I honestly think a 10-20 even 30% drop for some companies is warranted.
I'm sure some will go under.
I don't think a widespread 50% drop makes sense.

Cruise lines will have trouble, but Norovirus didn't' stop them, and once this recovers I think people will get back on the boats.
Do you really think the medical companies are going to see significant and sustained revenue drops?
Esports is going to have massive growth, because there are no physical sports for a year.

There is going to be pain, but we'll come out of this.
 

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And tens of thousands yet to come if this scene plays out in many areas around the Gulf Coast https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/03/17/clearwater-beach-spring-break-coronavirus-mxp-vpx.hln

I was down there to witness it. Drove through Clearwater. I’ve stated before, there was no sense of urgency on any news outlet. Unless you were tied to Twitter, there was no information to isolate. All the isolation news I was seeing was coming from Canadian news sources and Canadian friends. The joke is that no Floridian is ever in Clearwater. These were all tourists. And how often do people on their vacation regularly check the news? Just another example of how poor communication is in the US.
 

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I've been holding on to what I have and waiting with cash to buy once north american cases start to plateau.

Seeing how seriously the Americans are taking it (with comment above and twitter), and how bungled the CDC is thanks to Trump cuts makes me want to sell some of my VUN. the worst is yet to come.
 

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Predictions on the bottom? I keep stopping myself from buying more Suncor, banks, telcos, pipelines, insurers.. so tempting!

Give me some bottoms to look for......just a game.......appreciate we’re talking about market timing.
 

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Predictions on the bottom? I keep stopping myself from buying more Suncor, banks, telcos, pipelines, insurers.. so tempting!

Give me some bottoms to look for......just a game.......appreciate we’re talking about market timing.
Who knows, at the current rate, could be another 40% down from here. Canada will fare better except for oil stocks, which will be decimated. US is going to be a crap show. If they don't get things sorted out, we're going to have a fresh food issue here in Canada come fall/winter.

I'm not sure the CAD oil industry will be a going concern going forward in 2021 if this continues.
 

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I'm not sure the CAD oil industry will be a going concern going forward in 2021 if this continues.
People go after O&G cause there is cash there to try and corner. If O&G prices implode I bet environmentalism wanes too....
 

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People go after O&G cause there is cash there to try and corner. If O&G prices implode I bet environmentalism wanes too....
I'm not sure SA and Russia can keep this up til the end of the year. Eventually they will get hit hard with the virus (Russia probably already is), and then they will have to spend heavily at home. However, they may plan on sacrificing some of their population to get rid of the US shale problem.
 

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I don't think we will hit the bottom until, we get a treatment and turn the economy on.
There will be drops at the next panics, which will be a US lockdown, shortages, deaths of celebrities, particularly younger celebrities or and Pro athletes.
 

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The thing is people look at the economy as numbers. We've basically pushed pause, and they're trying to figure out measures to keep essentials running.

All restaurants are closed, employees are out of work, the food supply chains have been disrupted, even advertising spend is going to be cut. Vehicle sales and gas sales will drop. That alone is devastating.
But there is no way out of it, that economic activity is GONE.
We can't stimulate it back, you literally can't pay people enough to go out to a restaurant (and you shouldn't right now)

The numbers look bad economically. But the governments appear to be doing the right steps.
Keep food and essentials flowing, prevent the shutdown from causing a financial calamity for individuals and companies directly.

In a year or two we'll be back to normal economic operation, and who knows how long for the mindset and finances of people to recover.

Really that 10% earnings yield is gone this year, but it will be back in 2 years. Assuming the company doesn't go under, and the government has been very clear they don't want lenders to squeeze borrowers, and we'll be back.

Regarding squeezing borrowers, or consumers in general, the government shouldn't stand for it.
When the banks say contact them if you're under financial pressure, I think they're being somewhat honest.
A real estate crash is entirely possible, if people are at home watching Netflix, eating canned food, they might be ok. You shut off their power and leave them to starve in the dark, you have a problem.

I honestly think a 10-20 even 30% drop for some companies is warranted.
I'm sure some will go under.
I don't think a widespread 50% drop makes sense.

Cruise lines will have trouble, but Norovirus didn't' stop them, and once this recovers I think people will get back on the boats.
Do you really think the medical companies are going to see significant and sustained revenue drops?
Esports is going to have massive growth, because there are no physical sports for a year.

There is going to be pain, but we'll come out of this.
Most companies are already down 30% or more with no bottom in sight. A widespread 50% drop is not unrealistic by the time we do bottom hopefully sometime in the summer months.

On a more optimistic note, the Conference Board of Canada yesterday published their Spring 2020 report and are not forecasting a technical recession (two consecutive qtrs of negative growth). They do highlight a huge downside risk due to Corona uncertainty.

https://www.conferenceboard.ca/e-library/abstract.aspx?did=10648

They also see a rebound to more normal economic growth in 2021. If true the market recovery should be strong and in 12 months or less.

"... economic growth will contract
by a projected 2.7 per cent in the second quarter.
However, growth should resume in the third quarter,
allowing the economy to avoid a technical
recession. Unfortunately, there are huge downside
risks to our outlook due to the unpredictability of the
coronavirus pandemic. Overall, we expect growth of
just 0.3 per cent in 2020 followed by a rebound to
2.5 per cent growth in 2021."

Stay healthy and stay home my friends!
 

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The environmentalists will say.....”humans weren’t working fast enough to stop climate change, so Mother Nature is taking over”
 
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