Market Rally - here to stay?

It depends on your tolerance for pain. The market will always fall back - no rally is ever here to stay. We probably still have a little bit left in this run before it pulls back. How far it pulls back will be unknown until we are actually experiencing the pull back and know what the catalyst is.

My own view is that the pullback at worst for the TSX will just be to the 50 day moving average. A minor pullback would be about half that I would think and will not affect all stocks. Then the party should resume

Well that is the big question that no one really knows the answer to... yet. Considering the what 40% run in three months it's pretty safe to say we will see a correction in the near future. There are still far too many negatives out there to support this illusionary bull run.

mogul777 said:

Well that is the big question that no one really knows the answer to... yet. Considering the what 40% run in three months it's pretty safe to say we will see a correction in the near future. There are still far too many negatives out there to support this illusionary bull run.

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Welcome Mogul

CuriousReader said:

The market been rallying quite steadily for the past few weeks - do you guys think the market rally is here to stay? or is this just some illusion before another plunge?

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Nobody knows and thinking about it is just a waste of time.

Allocate your capital when the markets plunge and forget about it.

Rickson9 said:

Nobody knows and thinking about it is just a waste of time.

Allocate your capital when the markets plunge and forget about it.

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I agree with Rickson , markets do what they do , if you're in it for the long term and have done your due dilligence , daily , weekly and monthly fluctuations don't mean a lot.

If you're trying to be a day trader however , good luck , but asking others opinions on market rallies or pullbacks won't help you much.

Markets always go up in the long term.

I don't think of this as a rally....given that credit conditions have stabilized and the fear of every bank going under has subsided, the market has returned to more meaningful valuations. Don't forget, we are still far from the TSX peak of 15,000. The credit crisis has caused considerable collateral damage, and it will take months if not years to get out of it and create the foundations for a true rally - one that will take us past the highs of last year.

Rickson9 said:

Nobody knows and thinking about it is just a waste of time.

Allocate your capital when the markets plunge and forget about it.

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I know that market just keep going up and down - my question was basically wondering if this is just an illusion before another crash (like 50% drop in values), I wasnt pointing to the market ups and downs, fluctuation is expected, but a crash is not.

So are we still expecting another big drop, or would this be just another market going up and down that averages into a consistent growth?

CuriousReader said:

I know that market just keep going up and down - my question was basically wondering if this is just an illusion before another crash (like 50% drop in values), I wasnt pointing to the market ups and downs, fluctuation is expected, but a crash is not.

So are we still expecting another big drop, or would this be just another market going up and down that averages into a consistent growth?

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As per my first post: nobody knows.

Most are not expecting a return to the March lows. That was taken off the table along with the possibility of a 30's style depression. This is just a pause - and investors are cycling out of certain sectors that have had a good run.

Party on!

Nobody knows but there are a lot of people who missed out and are missing out of deals of a life time by staying on the sidelines.

I would consider taking profit and going to the sidelines right now as we enter the slow summer season and a possible volatile fall period. You also can't rule out that we are not repeating the great feel good period in the great rally after 1929.

CuriousReader said:

I know that market just keep going up and down - my question was basically wondering if this is just an illusion before another crash (like 50% drop in values), I wasnt pointing to the market ups and downs, fluctuation is expected, but a crash is not.

So are we still expecting another big drop, or would this be just another market going up and down that averages into a consistent growth?

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Correction. It's all expected, crashes too. The only thing you don't know is when... no one can predict that accurately.

As noted the retest of the lows as well as the depression scenario are less likely, but not off the table at this point.

I'm still 30% cash - and I want this market to fall so I can scoop up some more Canadian dividend players just like in February.