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You're simply arguing a deterministic universe with no free will and calling it "luck"
Ya, could have just led off with "Do we live in a deterministic universe?" :)

Of course, from the point of the view of the observer (us), we do have free will. There is also the possibility that there is a built in amount of uncertainly in our material universe that doesn't allow a deterministic one.
 

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Discussion Starter · #183 ·
You're simply arguing a deterministic universe with no free will and calling it "luck"
No, I'm debating about free will, not determinism. It's not because we have no free will that the world is deterministic. The debate is much bigger if you add determinism. I'm only focusing on free will. I don't want to debate about determinism, I won't say where I stand about whether the world is deterministic or not.

There's also people who say that we do have free will, but the world is deterministic. There's people debating for every combination of beliefs.

Read a bit before replying.

In the free will debate, Strawson holds that there is a fundamental sense in which free will is impossible, whether determinism is true or not.
  1. You do what you do, in any given situation, because of the way you are. (therefore not deterministic)
  2. To be ultimately responsible for what you do, you have to be ultimately responsible for the way you are—at least in certain crucial mental respects.
  3. But you cannot be ultimately responsible for the way you are in any respect at all.
  4. So you cannot be ultimately responsible for what you do. (therefore no free will)
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Discussion Starter · #184 ·
Take this for example.

Let's say you take decisions based on the flip of a coin. Since you can't decide whether the coin will fall on heads or tails, you have no free will. But is it deterministic? No, it depends on the flip of the coin, which is random. Unless we start the debate whether the flip of the coin is truly random or not. That's the other debate I don't want to start.
 

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Take this for example.

Let's say you take decisions based on the flip of a coin. Since you can't decide whether the coin will fall on heads or tails, you have no free will. But is it deterministic? No, it depends on the flip of the coin, which is random. Unless we start the debate whether the flip of the coin is truly random or not. That's the other debate I don't want to start.
You're arguing the external forces that are so complete an so compelling that you have absolutely no free will, and there isn't even a chance that you could ever control any part of your mind or physical body.
If that's the case, the coin would have also experienced similar factors and is simply at the whims of the environment. Similarly the "decision" to follow the coin flip wasn't random either.

Quite simply without some free will, by something, somewhere, it must be a deterministic universe. Because there is nothing that will direct it, other than the natural settling of entropy.

Now if there is some small, miniscule level of free will or freedom, somewhere in the universe, your argument falls apart.
 

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No, I'm debating about free will, not determinism. It's not because we have no free will that the world is deterministic.
Without a deterministic world free will definitely exists due to uncertainty unless one brings in "higher power" based implications.
 

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Discussion Starter · #187 · (Edited)
You're arguing the external forces that are so complete an so compelling that you have absolutely no free will, and there isn't even a chance that you could ever control any part of your mind or physical body.
If that's the case, the coin would have also experienced similar factors and is simply at the whims of the environment. Similarly the "decision" to follow the coin flip wasn't random either.
You're just arguing where you stand on two different subjects based on your beliefs. You say the world is not deterministic and you also say that there is free will. That's your opinion and it's ok.

I'm not sure you understood my coin flip example though.

Let's say the world is not deterministic and that we assume that there is free will.

50 years from now, we discover that when we make a decision between "yes" or "no", it's just the result of a purely random connection in our brain. So we don't control that connection, the same way that we don't control the result of the coin flip. Therefore we would discover that free will doesn't exist. Let's say that we also discover that the connection in our brain is purely random. That there is in fact such thing as pure randomness. That there is a quantum randomness. Therefore we would discover that the world is not deterministic. In this hypothetical world, there's no free will, but the world is not deterministic.

As of today, if the result of a coin flip is purely random or not, we don't know. In fact, at the moment, humans cannot purposely generate pure randomness. The solution is to observe what we believe to be pure randomness.

Random.org is a website that produces random numbers based on atmospheric noise
Does a computer have free will? No. Does a computer reading the atmospheric noise is displaying a deterministic number? No. (Unless we find out that the atmospheric noise is deterministic)
 

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MrB, you're really going off in multiple directions in that last post ... not sure what most of that has to do with people making a choice on their own.
 

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That's simply not true.
I wouldn't be where I am without hard work.

I don't know any successful people who didn't work hard.
I know very few "failures" who did work hard.

Sure luck is a factor, but in my mind it's clearly a mixture of good luck and hard work that leads to success.
I'm with you Mr. Matt.

Sure, there is pure luck in life but if you want to put the odds of success in your favour, work hard.

Hope and luck is not a strategy.
 

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Discussion Starter · #190 ·
Hope and luck is not a strategy.
Relying on luck is not a strategy, I agree. No one should rely on luck, that's a premise I fully agree that we should all work hard.

Lots of people work very hard. Yet they have very, very different outcomes.

Every people I know work very hard. Some work hard to stay above the water, while some work hard to get a bigger yacht. And it's actually the former who's working the hardest.
 

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I saw these stories and thought that they were worth looking at and fall in this thread. They are both about people getting their finances under control or starting out in life. They certainly strike me as "lucky" in a sense, but they haven't the foggiest idea that their situations aren't exactly common.

1. Young people have no excuse for not buying a house, says landlord, 22
He's 22 years old, lived at home and worked for family business. Enough to save $11k pounds for a downpayment on a $115k pound house. Not sure how a bank would lend the balance based on a $14k pound annual salary, but there it is. Oh, and he was gifted a Ford Fiesta instead of buying a Mercedes like his friends. He points to his lack of drinking and not buying clothes as the secret to his success... all the while ignoring the fact that his parents were independent business owners and probably had something to do with the mortgage. Of course, once he got one house settled, he started leveraging.

2. How one 31-year-old paid off $220,000 in student loans in 3 years
An older article, with similar story. 31 year old woman had a $220k student loan debt and a $38k job in D.C. Moved back home in Illinois with her parents and worked for her mom at a non-profit at the same salary. She got married and her mother gifted them a condo, which they proceeded to rent out and moved in with her grandparents. They leveraged again and bought some other properties. When her grandparents moved south, they moved back in with her parents. All the while paying down the student loan with all their combined income. She wrote a book on her experience and wants to pass herself as some sort of financial guru.
 

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They certainly strike me as "lucky" in a sense, but they haven't the foggiest idea that their situations aren't exactly common.
Of course

If you're 22, and you spent 3-4 years working part time, living at home, it should be possible to save $11k.

How one 31 year old had others pay off their student loans.

How about "I saved and worked my way through my university education, by living in a $#[email protected] appt, and eating ramen".
That's possible for many.
 

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She wrote a book on her experience and wants to pass herself as some sort of financial guru.
Maybe I should write a book since I moved out the day I graduated high school and was already paying my own car/phone/sports/clothes for years before that.

Most of these financial guru books seem to be written by people milking some passive income. My energy is better spent elsewhere because people don't want to hear financial advice - I've tested it on young colleagues.

It's better to be adaptable than lucky. There are all kinds of opportunities that people don't take because they committed themselves to something that turned out "unlucky"
 

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Maybe I should write a book since I moved out the day I graduated high school and was already paying my own car/phone/sports/clothes for years before that.

Most of these financial guru books seem to be written by people milking some passive income and forget to mention selling financial advice. My energy is better spent elsewhere because people don't want to hear financial advice - I've tested it on young colleagues.

It's better to be adaptable than lucky. There are all kinds of opportunities that people don't take because they committed themselves to something that turned out "unlucky"
Doesn't need a book.

I had a handful of young staff that wanted advice, the other half didn't.
The older guys thought I was trying to scam them.
 

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If you're 22, and you spent 3-4 years working part time, living at home, it should be possible to save $11k.
The way it's written is that he saved it in one year. I don't have an issue with the savings. I have the issue that he overlooks that not everyone is going to be gifted a car, low rent and a job working for the parents, in addition to being able to get a $100k mortgage based on $14k income.

How about "I saved and worked my way through my university education, by living in a $#[email protected] appt, and eating ramen".
That's possible for many.
Not surprisingly, those stories are so common that they don't make news.

Maybe I should write a book since I moved out the day I graduated high school and was already paying my own car/phone/sports/clothes for years before that.
It seems to be a common theme when you hear these stories, like the Toronto FIRE couple who credit not buying a house for their great lifestyle. They get into the news and then try to leverage that into some book or financial guru type side hustle.
 

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It is better that we pretend. But it is what it is, we pretend.

"Ignorance is the greatest source of happiness." -Giacomo Leopardi
"Every moment of happiness requires a great amount of ignorance." -Honoré de Balzac
"A person is never happy except at the price of some ignorance." -Anatole France
"In ignorance, we find our bliss; in illusions, our happiness." -Anatole France
"Happiness is the fusion of ignorance and illusion." -Ritu Madaan
In mental institution people are always happy 😁
 
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