Posts by sags
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21,831 Posts
It is if they have the money to invest.
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A bear market will be a wistful dream in a few weeks.
The “all things bubble” has a lot of air to let out yet.
My prediction Is up to 40% dump in housing and solid stocks and 80% to 90% in meme stocks, crypto, and collectibles.
When the big daily dumps start piling up investors will go completely risk off.
It always goes like that with inexperienced DYI investors leading the rush out the exit doors.
Both the strength of the downturn and the subsequent recovery are always under estimated.
The “all things bubble” has a lot of air to let out yet.
My prediction Is up to 40% dump in housing and solid stocks and 80% to 90% in meme stocks, crypto, and collectibles.
When the big daily dumps start piling up investors will go completely risk off.
It always goes like that with inexperienced DYI investors leading the rush out the exit doors.
Both the strength of the downturn and the subsequent recovery are always under estimated.
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21,831 Posts
Lately some of the discussions on CNBC are about investors piling into fixed income.
Warren Buffet is sitting on $106 Billion in free cash in T-Bills and fixed income. He has been buying here and there but is still looking.
He is raking in the cash while patiently waiting and watching like a hawk on a telephone pole.
Maybe he is waiting for a juicy company loan bailout.....like he has done in the past.
Your business need some cash ?.....come see Uncle Warren.
Warren Buffet is sitting on $106 Billion in free cash in T-Bills and fixed income. He has been buying here and there but is still looking.
He is raking in the cash while patiently waiting and watching like a hawk on a telephone pole.
Maybe he is waiting for a juicy company loan bailout.....like he has done in the past.
Your business need some cash ?.....come see Uncle Warren.
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21,831 Posts
Many investors aren't feeling sufficient pay yet, but many other people are.
I know a young lady with a full time job in the field of mental health and she can't afford to pay her rent, car payments, insurance, gas, phone bill, and still buy food from her wages. Her rent alone takes 60% of her monthly income.
She needs the car to commute to work and missed several monthly insurance premium payments, so they cancelled her policy and she is driving around with no insurance.
She didn't tell us about it or ask for help, but I sent her some money anyways and told her to talk to her insurance agent about paying insurance upfront for the year and we will pay it.
I wonder how many people are cutting out things like car insurance, proper maintenance, dental appointments, medicines, food.... just to survive.
People may not approve of government support spending.......but I see no other way out of this mess for some people.
No government can stand idly by and say......sorry, it is your problem so deal with it.
I know a young lady with a full time job in the field of mental health and she can't afford to pay her rent, car payments, insurance, gas, phone bill, and still buy food from her wages. Her rent alone takes 60% of her monthly income.
She needs the car to commute to work and missed several monthly insurance premium payments, so they cancelled her policy and she is driving around with no insurance.
She didn't tell us about it or ask for help, but I sent her some money anyways and told her to talk to her insurance agent about paying insurance upfront for the year and we will pay it.
I wonder how many people are cutting out things like car insurance, proper maintenance, dental appointments, medicines, food.... just to survive.
People may not approve of government support spending.......but I see no other way out of this mess for some people.
No government can stand idly by and say......sorry, it is your problem so deal with it.
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21,831 Posts
Some families need financai support.
Other families don't need any financial support, but can't afford to support others who do need support.
Still other families don't need any financial support, have more money than they will ever need, and should pay taxes at the stipulated rate....not the one their high priced accountants create for them.
Other families don't need any financial support, but can't afford to support others who do need support.
Still other families don't need any financial support, have more money than they will ever need, and should pay taxes at the stipulated rate....not the one their high priced accountants create for them.
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21,831 Posts
We don't need higher tax rates. We need to collect the taxes people would be paying except for all the tax breaks people with money have at their disposal.
There were the Panama Papers and other research on offshoring revealed...........big deal on the news for a couple days and then it just faded away.
Look at the Bahamas claiming they have tight regulation, while FTX burned to the ground and they never even audited it once.
Rich people have never had it so good.
There were the Panama Papers and other research on offshoring revealed...........big deal on the news for a couple days and then it just faded away.
Look at the Bahamas claiming they have tight regulation, while FTX burned to the ground and they never even audited it once.
Rich people have never had it so good.
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21,831 Posts
I think the US economy is weaker than the employment numbers would indicate, and it will roll over in 2023.
A deep recession will hit in the US......spread to Canada, and all hard assets will experience steep drops in value.
This current scenario reminds me a lot of the widespread denial in pre-2007 housing crash and financial crisis.
A deep recession will hit in the US......spread to Canada, and all hard assets will experience steep drops in value.
This current scenario reminds me a lot of the widespread denial in pre-2007 housing crash and financial crisis.
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21,831 Posts
Interesting that 5 big names in insurance companies are hitting all time record highs.
This isn't good news, as the insurance companies are profiting from higher premiums, which is inflationary for their customers.
Stocks for companies that can jack prices because of government mandates or consumer need.......insurance, prescription drugs, food, are not indicative of the main street economy. (The BRK fund has significant holdings in such businesses and is performing pretty well considering the environment).
But they do affect the value of the S&P index and other markets.
This isn't good news, as the insurance companies are profiting from higher premiums, which is inflationary for their customers.
Stocks for companies that can jack prices because of government mandates or consumer need.......insurance, prescription drugs, food, are not indicative of the main street economy. (The BRK fund has significant holdings in such businesses and is performing pretty well considering the environment).
But they do affect the value of the S&P index and other markets.
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21,831 Posts
About 25% of the layoffs are in the tech industry. The next highest sector is real estate. Wells Fargo announced another layoff in their mortgage division.
The highest job vacancies are in healthcare, which are government funded. It appears there is a shift from private employment to public employment.
In the shift from one tech company to another........55% reported the same earnings, which means 45% received a pay increase at the new company.
There are too many cross currents in the employment numbers for the level of reliance the central banks and investors have placed on them.
The highest job vacancies are in healthcare, which are government funded. It appears there is a shift from private employment to public employment.
In the shift from one tech company to another........55% reported the same earnings, which means 45% received a pay increase at the new company.
There are too many cross currents in the employment numbers for the level of reliance the central banks and investors have placed on them.
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21,831 Posts
The US markets seem to be in a downtrend and the banks are getting hit pretty hard.
Jamie Dimon says that a recession is pretty much baked in for 2023. It appears the markets are back to "risk off" again.
Overall......it looks like investors have no idea what to do and are bouncing all over day to day. A couple days up........and a couple of days down.
Jamie Dimon says that a recession is pretty much baked in for 2023. It appears the markets are back to "risk off" again.
Overall......it looks like investors have no idea what to do and are bouncing all over day to day. A couple days up........and a couple of days down.
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21,831 Posts
A growing undercurrent of escalation towards global war may be happening in Ukraine, but is pretty much off the news headlines lately.
The Ukrainians hit Russian air bases located deep into Russian territory. There is an unprecedented cyber attack on a major Russian bank.
This is all fine and dandy......and people will applaud right up until the time that Putin strikes back with a tactical nuclear weapon dropped in Ukraine.
At that moment.......everything is going to change.
Stay tuned.
www.cnbc.com
The Ukrainians hit Russian air bases located deep into Russian territory. There is an unprecedented cyber attack on a major Russian bank.
This is all fine and dandy......and people will applaud right up until the time that Putin strikes back with a tactical nuclear weapon dropped in Ukraine.
At that moment.......everything is going to change.
Stay tuned.
Major Russian bank faces 'unprecedented' cyber attack; Russian airfield hit in suspected drone strike
Parts of southern Ukraine faced continuing missile attacks. Elsewhere, Russia's Kursk region governor said there was a drone attack near an airfield there.
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21,831 Posts
I hope you are right as the situation in Ukraine seems to be deteriorating quickly.
Another missile attack today hundreds of kilometers into Russian territory.
Russia could consider it a pre-emptive strike on their nuclear capabilities. It is a very dangerous game that someone is playing.
It came a day after Russia confirmed it had been hit by what it said were Soviet-era drones — at Engels air base, home to Russia's strategic bomber fleet, and in Ryazan, a few hours' drive from Moscow.
The attacks on Russian bases — more than 500 kilometres from the border with Ukraine — raised questions about the effectiveness of their air defences. They also threatened a major escalation of the nine-month war. One of the airfields houses bombers capable of carrying nuclear weapons.
Another missile attack today hundreds of kilometers into Russian territory.
Russia could consider it a pre-emptive strike on their nuclear capabilities. It is a very dangerous game that someone is playing.
It came a day after Russia confirmed it had been hit by what it said were Soviet-era drones — at Engels air base, home to Russia's strategic bomber fleet, and in Ryazan, a few hours' drive from Moscow.
The attacks on Russian bases — more than 500 kilometres from the border with Ukraine — raised questions about the effectiveness of their air defences. They also threatened a major escalation of the nine-month war. One of the airfields houses bombers capable of carrying nuclear weapons.
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www.cbc.ca
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