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I know it's impossible to tell until well after the fact, but I'm wondering if we might be in an actual bear market now.
My position is simple.
Don't care, not selling.

My detailed position is that my individual stock picks are mostly nicely valued profitable companies. I'll likely continue to get my $xk/yr in dividends. so I don't care.
Much of the rest of my portfolio is tech stocks, and I've made so much there I don't really care. For several I've already pared down my position, so even if they drop to zero, I'm at break even. (Apple and Amazon are notable exceptions)

Lots of fear== buying opportunity.
 

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Further...

So, we have decided to keep 3 years of spending money in near cash. This is insurance against sequence of return risk. So far, I'm happy with this approach.

But, if the government continues to de-risk the equity markets, I will be carrying a lot of opportunity cost for little reason. It could very easily be that one year of near-cash is more than sufficient. I believe this is likely. Unfortunately, it's a bet I cannot afford to lose so I will continue carrying a big cash buffer.
I think planning to sell equities in 1 year to live is risky.

I think 3 years of near cash is aggressive in retirement.
 

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Sure, no question there's at least one or two increases coming. But what's a 0.50% or 0.75% rate, when inflation is running at close to 10% per year?

I also hope they end QE. This stimulus has been happening since 2008, so that's 14 years now. I'll believe they end QE when I actually see them shrink their balance sheet.
Apparently food prices and futures are going nuts. I think we got a bit complacent, and stopped monitoring monetary policy. Even Trudeau said it wasn't a priority.

Now that we're seeing the consequences, I think monetary policy will get a bit more attention from some of the masses.

I am hoping that we'll have a refocus on basics, you know strong economy, national security, stable and secure food and energy supplies etc. Elon is saying drill for more oil, because we're not ready to go full electric.

I think sometimes the dreamers loose sight of the basics.

As for the markets, I think the companies providing the essentials may be able to show their importance, but I'm concerned that some overeager governments may try to interfere with them.
 

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I still think this could be an awful year in stocks.

In a few hours, the US will report their latest inflation numbers. Economists think they will be the worst numbers in 41 years. And when inflation numbers are that high, it forces the Federal Reserve to raise rates and start QT. So basically, the high inflation readings force the Fed to drain liquidity out of global markets.

And draining liquidity makes the price of everything drop. This is a good effect, but it probably takes stocks with it.

I think American and European stocks are going to drop a lot more. I'm not selling any of my US stocks though, because I could be wrong.
I was thinking the same thing, and was thinking my investment priority this year might be... gasp... mortgage prepayments.

I'm on variable, and if it hits 4%, that's quite a compelling 'fixed income' investment
 

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I've been thinking about this a lot.
Who cares if it's a bear market, if anything that's the time to invest and grow.

If you can succeed in tough times, you can excel in good times.

I'm not changing my plan.
 

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I would just be cautious to not get overly aggressive. One problem with bear markets is that they wear down people, emotionally.

I was recently reflecting on the Gen-X experience with the 2000 bear market. It was really rough on the Gen-X workforce. They had high expectations coming through the late 1990s, then entered a stretch of NO market returns for 12-13 years. If you look at the historical data, you'll see that stocks underperformed the risk-free rate (t-bills) for 13 years! And with tons of volatility.
The tech boom was awesome, I know a lot of paper millionaires that lost it.
FYI during that time (late 90's until 2010's) I invested in the BMO dividend fund.

 

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Futures are plummeting again, though I'm not sure how often the overnight futures carry through to regular hour markets.
I don't pay attention to that crap.
Don't care what is happening to stocks day by day.

My lumber mills are still cutting. People are still buying off Amazon, people still give Google all their ad money.

The fascination of watching all these short term fluctuations isn't my style at all.
 
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