[KaeJS]

I am very new for investment, In order to tell bear market, how can we tell market "overbought"? are there any indicators? Maca, MA lines? I was totally loser, Many years ago, bank adviser told me to buy bond mutual fund and money market fund for safer investment, many years has passed, I am able to access my RRSP on line this year, It was horrible, My bond mutual fund lose 50%, Money market fund lose 20%. I am thinking to buy bank stocks.

What?

Money market funds don't lose money.
Definitely not 20%.

 

[KaeJS]

I still think this could be an awful year in stocks.

In a few hours, the US will report their latest inflation numbers. Economists think they will be the worst numbers in 41 years. And when inflation numbers are that high, it forces the Federal Reserve to raise rates and start QT. So basically, the high inflation readings force the Fed to drain liquidity out of global markets.

And draining liquidity makes the price of everything drop. This is a good effect, but it probably takes stocks with it.

I think American and European stocks are going to drop a lot more. I'm not selling any of my US stocks though, because I could be wrong.

I don't say this often -

But I think you're right. 😅

 

[KaeJS]

There has been good buying opportunities already IMO. They will sort this short term inflation out w a few more rate hikes if needed. Bond yields are already getting over 3% - above their recent avgs of ~ 2.5%

Much of this is due to oil and there should be more supply soon. OPEC is increasing supply and there is more drilling going on everywhere. We are supposed to be moving to EVs further reducing our demand for oil , another reason this oil shock should be short lived.

So get ready to load up on cheap stocks in the next few months or even nibbling now. Maybe wait until prices cross their 200MDA going up. Once inflation starts dropping they will stop the rate hikes and markets will roar back to life.

I agree with all this.

I have also started nibbling on interest rate sensitive stocks.

 

[KaeJS]

Some of you are making assumptions.

You say "stocks" as if they have all performed the same. They haven't. And what's the timeline?

I'm still up 22%. So you can't say "cash is beating stocks". Certain stocks, sure. But lots are still holding ground. Look at Fortis, for example.

 

[KaeJS]

Futures are plummeting again, though I'm not sure how often the overnight futures carry through to regular hour markets.

They definitely carried over, and they got even worse =)

Last I saw from last night was -0.92%
Now I'm seeing -1.55%