[KaeJS]

I am very new for investment, In order to tell bear market, how can we tell market "overbought"? are there any indicators? Maca, MA lines? I was totally loser, Many years ago, bank adviser told me to buy bond mutual fund and money market fund for safer investment, many years has passed, I am able to access my RRSP on line this year, It was horrible, My bond mutual fund lose 50%, Money market fund lose 20%. I am thinking to buy bank stocks.

What?

Money market funds don't lose money.
Definitely not 20%.

 

[KaeJS]

I still think this could be an awful year in stocks.

In a few hours, the US will report their latest inflation numbers. Economists think they will be the worst numbers in 41 years. And when inflation numbers are that high, it forces the Federal Reserve to raise rates and start QT. So basically, the high inflation readings force the Fed to drain liquidity out of global markets.

And draining liquidity makes the price of everything drop. This is a good effect, but it probably takes stocks with it.

I think American and European stocks are going to drop a lot more. I'm not selling any of my US stocks though, because I could be wrong.

I don't say this often -

But I think you're right. 😅

 

[KaeJS]

There has been good buying opportunities already IMO. They will sort this short term inflation out w a few more rate hikes if needed. Bond yields are already getting over 3% - above their recent avgs of ~ 2.5%

Much of this is due to oil and there should be more supply soon. OPEC is increasing supply and there is more drilling going on everywhere. We are supposed to be moving to EVs further reducing our demand for oil , another reason this oil shock should be short lived.

So get ready to load up on cheap stocks in the next few months or even nibbling now. Maybe wait until prices cross their 200MDA going up. Once inflation starts dropping they will stop the rate hikes and markets will roar back to life.

I agree with all this.

I have also started nibbling on interest rate sensitive stocks.

 

[KaeJS]

Some of you are making assumptions.

You say "stocks" as if they have all performed the same. They haven't. And what's the timeline?

I'm still up 22%. So you can't say "cash is beating stocks". Certain stocks, sure. But lots are still holding ground. Look at Fortis, for example.

 

[KaeJS]

Futures are plummeting again, though I'm not sure how often the overnight futures carry through to regular hour markets.

They definitely carried over, and they got even worse =)

Last I saw from last night was -0.92%
Now I'm seeing -1.55%

 

[KaeJS]

• personally, I still feel too wealthy.

Must be nice.

 

[KaeJS]

I've got my LOC ready.
If we see 3200 sp500, I'll tap a little and take a nibble. The further down we go from there, the more I will pull from the LOC.

But I'm not pulling anything until 3200, if it ever hits.

 

[KaeJS]

I was wondering... When do we start feeling the pain of a bear market / market crash?

Since I'm still accumulating, I couldn't care less how much the market drops... I'm even happy about it. I'm happy when the market goes up because my net worth increases, I'm happy when the market goes down because I buy cheaper.

I guess the true pain comes at retirement or near retirement? I mean, if I was about to reach my retirement goal and suddenly the market drops -40% and I have no idea how long it'll take to move back up, I'd be pissed. Same if I had just retired. Same if I was in the middle of my retirement and wondering if I'll have enough money.

But otherwise... This is interestingly the 5th worst drawdown in the past 50 years. Wow, really? I guess only the top 3 drawdowns (1973, 2000, 2007) were truly painful as the market dropped by more than -40% and it took many years to recover. I'm expecting the same intensity of market crash, though I'm in my mid-30s, I'm not near my retirement (I wish, though), so I feel absolutely no pain at all, so far. And that's with 100% equities.

Likewise.

I really don't care either way. I just keep buying. Green, red, doesn't matter to me.

And if you did everything properly when you are retired, you shouldn't care much about the drops in the net worth but more so any reduction in income (dividends, for example). Although, some people do sell shares... But I'm not going to get into the whole debate about how selling shares is the same as taking dividends lol