I come to this thread when I want to feel small.I just come to this thread whenever I get nervous that I have too much oil. Then Larry makes me feel better.
1. SU had operational issues with Fort Hills - it should have been up and running years ago. These are being overcome and it will help the stock.Anyone have a short explaination regarding why SU didnt recover like the others majors ? What an underdog !
Commodities are exaggerations and extremes in both directions. I spent 25+ years in the business to know that when we think we know the answers, we are severely humbled in short order. The wild card this year (and into the next 2 years) is mostly around what demand does. Supply is considerably more well known on what it will do than demand, the wild cards of Libya and Iran notwithstanding. Even Iraq to some degree but less so. There should be enough supply growth in various basins to meet increasing demand simply because the industry cannot help itself. We see that in MD&A on 4Q21 results being released currently from various companies. That will put a lid on prices but where is the question.I just come to this thread whenever I get nervous that I have too much oil. Then Larry makes me feel better.
I wish I had a crystal ball to know if AltaRed is being perpetually pessimistic or realistic! Agree that USA production surprises could be a big wildcard. Hard to know what to believe... I've heard everything from US production being the clearly most robust and capable of growth, or the opposite that they are running on fumes and it is a financing house of cards to keep existing wells producing just a little bit longer before they go bust (and not to be replaced with new drilling in significant numbers).
If oil goes back to all time highs of 15 years ago, which many analysts believe is fundamentally inevitable, those 15 year returns are going to look a lot better. Gasoline prices are already at record highs in many places, including Canada, and petroleum demand isn't even blinking.Yeah, it's nuts! Here are annualized returns for XEG
1 year: 110%
3 year: 14%
5 year: 2%
10 year: -1%
15 year: -1%
Huge difference between the short term and long term returns!
Incredible. I've always been skeptical of your millions of dollars in XEG profits Larry but I am convinced now. I believe your screenshot is from a TD account, correct? If we didn't have our accounts with TD, I still would have been skeptical. This is the internet after all lol.
CNQ is a much more of a upstream oil business and it has strong position in other non-oilsand production.. Suncor has a much bigger footprint with downstream operations. Same with CVE. CNQ I believe has done better in stock performance. I figure the real laggard in the three is CVE and if there is a catch up phase CVE will do very well.I personally like CNQ over XEG.
I like it over its peers as well: SU CVE IMO.
Bigger dividend, better management, better performance.
I'm surprised there isn't more interest in CNQ here.
What do you think, time to cash out $1 million? Don't worry about the taxes. You'd still have a $2 million position remaining, and will still make plenty if it doubles again.2M Unrealized Cap Gain as of today
Is this still the case? Is a $3 million position still not a major holding for you? Maybe you're dealing with a $30 or $60 million total portfolio, I have no idea.This is a large amount for everyone including me but i am fortunate enough that, while significant, its not a major holding in my overall portfolio. I used the rationale that XEG "is part of my canadian equities allocation".
And a diversified portfolio has a higher probability of giving a good total return under the widest range of circumstances. A concentrated position of XEG is really just a speculation.James, I don't get your laser focus on fees. It should be on total return.