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Grats on the milestones. I also think diversification is over rated and comes at a high cost. I don't hold any oil companies.
 

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I just come to this thread whenever I get nervous that I have too much oil. Then Larry makes me feel better.

I wish I had a crystal ball to know if AltaRed is being perpetually pessimistic or realistic! :) Agree that USA production surprises could be a big wildcard. Hard to know what to believe... I've heard everything from US production being the clearly most robust and capable of growth, or the opposite that they are running on fumes and it is a financing house of cards to keep existing wells producing just a little bit longer before they go bust (and not to be replaced with new drilling in significant numbers).
 

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I just come to this thread whenever I get nervous that I have too much oil. Then Larry makes me feel better.
I come to this thread when I want to feel small.
But I am super happy for (and jealous) of the huge returns for some of the members here.

I do own quite a bit of oil, but not to the tune of some people on here. I think oil is here to stay. Not too concerned about green energy and all that. There simply is too much demand. Too many things require oil. I think the death of oil is something far, far into the future.

And as someone mentioned upthread... There have been talks of green energy before... Oil running out... Climate change... Etc.

The more things change, the more things stay the same.

With all that said - I added to my SU position today. There is no reason it shouldn't hit $40 at some point in the future. Probably in the next 6 months, I imagine.
 

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Anyone have a short explaination regarding why SU didnt recover like the others majors ? What an underdog !
 

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Anyone have a short explaination regarding why SU didnt recover like the others majors ? What an underdog !
1. SU had operational issues with Fort Hills - it should have been up and running years ago. These are being overcome and it will help the stock.
2. Some of SU's oil sands assets are running relatively shorter on lifespan, like apparently some parts of Syncrude. No expert but general consensus is they may be more exposed to capital expenditures and/or acquisitions and/or regulatory risk for mine expansions.
3. CNQ has no similar issues, giving institutions a solid alternative to have exposure to the space and they are taking it.
4. SU cut their dividend and still have not restored it to 2019 levels despite a recent doubling (current 42 cents, was 46.5 cents pre-COVID). CNQ's dividend is up 38% from pre-COVID levels and was never cut with a ~20 year unbroken history of dividend increases.

I still see $50 for SU as a fair price today. And more like $60+ if oil hits $100 US. CNQ has stolen a lot of SU's investors. They are really hitting it out of the park. New ATHs almost every day this week, and well deserved. $700M to expand oil production by 60,000 boe/d - that is at a 65-70% discount to where the public mid/small caps are trading today.
 
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