[larry81]

Initial position is 235,000 shares at 4.35ish, value of ~1M.

Rest of the profits are distributions.

It felt really insane at the time but it really was a "buy when there's blood in the streets" moment.
I remember pundits saying it was the end of oil while in fact it was a "generational opportunity" in commodities !

 

[scorpion_ca]

I am now at a 1,402,179 $ profit on my XEG position.

Anyone can ring a bell when we reach the peak ? I have the feeling there is much more upside left...

If I am not mistaken, you have SU too. What is the profit amount on SU?

 

[KaeJS]

Initial position is 235,000 shares at 4.35ish, value of ~1M.

Thank you for sharing.

 

[larry81]

If I am not mistaken, you have SU too. What is the profit amount on SU?

I sold my SU position in june of last year, it held it about 5 months and sold when i saw that Suncor was not recovering like the others majors,

I made about 40k profit on a 650k position, the bet underperformed the SP 500 !

 

[doctrine]

The last time oil was this high, Suncor was at $40 a share. XEG was above $20.

Of course, Suncor's production is 80%+ higher than 2014, and their capital expenditures are 40% lower. $40 is a no-brainer.

 

[newfoundlander61]

I am down on my Suncor holdings but am keeping the shares for now and to collect the dividend and wait for more appreciation in the stock price.

 

[larry81]

wow XEG @ 10.22

 

[newfoundlander61]

SU has been moving up but pretty slowly.

 

[james4beach]

wow XEG @ 10.22

Here's trailing 1 year return of a few things, for comparison

XIC +30%
SU +89%
XEG +139%

Wow. And even the TSX (XIC) is very strong, actually a bigger 1 year return than the S&P 500 when converted to CAD

 

[larry81]

 

[nobleea]

Now we're getting some momentum. Doubling dividend to match 2019 levels. More debt buyback, more share buybacks.

 

[doctrine]

Well, here we go. Money doesn't lie. New 52 week high. Should be closer to $50 though than $30.

 

[peterk]

Paging Mr. Larry

 

[larry81]

Finally, Suncor is alive !

Next weeek should also see real action as CNQ and Cenovus reports earnings !

Could reach XEG 12-13 by year end?

 

[doctrine]

New 52 week high, a day after setting a new 52 week high. Very nice. Refining margins are at close to decade highs. On our way to $40. I don't know if it happens by year end, but next year's traditional energy season (Dec-May) is going to be blockbuster. Gasoline prices are at record levels in October - this alone is such a huge sign that the energy shortage crisis is coming very, very soon.

The thesis that oil assets would be stranded and worthless is becoming, ironically, worthless. They may actually become more and more valuable as companies invest less and less. And Biden continues to beg OPEC to pump more. Only small whining because of COP26; just wait until that dog and pony show is over.

 

[Eder]

With Marathon reversing the flow of the Capline more oil from Alberta can make it to the Gulf. Good news for our producers & our province.

 

[AltaRed]

More options to Gulf refineries, particularly in times of bottlenecks south of Steele City.. Not more oil which is limited by takeaway capacity out of Canada.

 

[Eder]

Yes but Line 3 will add that capacity and will be able to feed the Capline the way I read it.

 

[AltaRed]

Yes but Line 3 will add that capacity and will be able to feed the Capline the way I read it.

Fair enough. I answered in the context that Line 3 capacity additions are already a past event (as of early Oct) and running flat out.

 

[james4beach]

Congrats @larry81 and everyone else who was brave enough to go long energy! The thought crossed my mind, but it just kept going lower and lower and lower.

How many years was XEG extremely disappointing? Even today the 15 year return is -2% annualized, negative! I guess it's one of those sectors you have to actively trade, but not suitable for buy & hold.

I'm getting enough energy exposure through the TSX index. Take a look at XIU, energy is now the second largest sector at 14% and climbing. So I am perfectly happy getting my energy equities through the index. This has already been an incredible year for the Canadian index, and if things continue like this, we could be a global outperformer for years.