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Sometimes I feel like a repeat recording, but every piece of data released just reinforces my thesis, and always with more bullish data than I thought. US crude oil stockpiles are at 6 year lows, and are now below the 2010-2014 average when oil was $100. Every blip is temporary noise or artificial market distortion, like China cutting crude imports that now leave them low in refined products and forced to release strategic reserves. Oil supplies are tight in what is supposed to be the weakest part of the year and before most of the world has fully re-opened. What happens next year?

Suncor has some issues at Fort Hill but that is more than baked into the price, they can generate enormous cash even with Fort Hill in the dumps. And you can free optionality if they sort it out like they say they will by early next year. Heading up now towards 2 month highs - good technicals finally even though they are such a laggard in the index.

IMO, Suncor is an easy $40 and maybe even $50 next year as they continue to buy back shares every single day at an accelerating rate - from 300-350k in Jun/July to now 500k a day. Great total return profile.
 

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Oil and Gas producers (top 70% by market cap) with a reduction in shares outstanding during the previous 6 months (Mon 1-6) or the 6 months before that (Mon 7-12). Numbers are percentages. SU shares were reduced by 2.7% during the previous 6 months. Data is from portfolio123.com.

Code:
Ticker   Name                            MktCap      Yield    Mon 1-6   Mon 7-12
PXT      Parex Resources Inc              2,516        2.5        3.5        6.5
SU       Suncor Energy Inc.              35,140        3.6        2.7        0.0
CNE      Canacol Energy Ltd                 591        6.3        1.3        0.6
FEC      Frontera Energy Corporation        677        0.0        1.2       -0.3
PSK      PrairieSky Royalty Ltd           3,014        2.7        0.0        3.8
POU      Paramount Resources Ltd          2,181        1.5       -1.5        0.9
FO       Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd               142        0.0       -7.5        7.0
LXE      Leucrotta Exploration Inc          168        0.0      -26.2        2.9
PSH      PetroShale Inc                     135        0.0     -176.6        2.2
 

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Eric Nuttall bought 1 million SU on Thurs. That explains the huge jump Thurs. He revealed this Fri.


I've been looking at this for a week now and was gonna buy in, but then Evergrande happened, making me cautious. Energy stocks can be volatile.
This stock is clearly undervalued, but Nuttall's endorsement is the confirmation I needed. He never buys big caps. He only goes for mid and small cap energy with bit potential gain. Heck he doesn't even own CNQ, so it's pretty telling that he bought big on SU.

I believe there will be a dividend increase soon.
 

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Eric Nuttall bought 1 million SU on Thurs. That explains the huge jump Thurs. He revealed this Fri.


I've been looking at this for a week now and was gonna buy in, but then Evergrande happened, making me cautious. Energy stocks can be volatile.
This stock is clearly undervalued, but Nuttall's endorsement is the confirmation I needed. He never buys big caps. He only goes for mid and small cap energy with bit potential gain. Heck he doesn't even own CNQ, so it's pretty telling that he bought big on SU.

I believe there will be a dividend increase soon.
SU could increase their dividend today, but I believe the base case is that it will be Q1 next year before they re-commence annual dividend increases - they are typically very conservative. But make no mistake, they are starting to overflow in cash like every other oil company - their corporate guidance is based on $65 WTI which hasn't been in play since May, so their cash flows are accelerating and you never know what they will do, but I am pleased they have a variable buyback program that has nearly doubled since May in daily purchases, and that debt levels are also dropping faster than planned.

SU isn't my only oil company, I also have CNQ shares I bought as low as $11 (now $44+) last year at the pandemic lows, and ERF shares at $2.60 (now $9+) in Oct 2020. Nutall's ERF target is $22 which would be approaching a 10 bagger for me. Suncor is practically the last oil company to start moving up. It's only a matter of time - they make too much money and don't have that much debt.
 

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I don't want to sound like a cheerleader for SU, or for any other stock for that matter. My job as an investor is to look objectively and soberly at the facts. All the facts seem to tell me that this is one of my best investment options right now. The Nuttuall endorsement really cemented it for me. I plan to buy alot more this week. Hopefully the dividend increase doesn't happen this week lol.

How about you guys? Where does it rank among your potential and present investments?
 

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I don't want to sound like a cheerleader for SU, or for any other stock for that matter. My job as an investor is to look objectively and soberly at the facts. All the facts seem to tell me that this is one of my best investment options right now. The Nuttuall endorsement really cemented it for me. I plan to buy alot more this week. Hopefully the dividend increase doesn't happen this week lol.

How about you guys? Where does it rank among your potential and present investments?
I took Nuttall's recommendations when I first started. That didn't work too well for me. Since then I stopped listening to many of the talking heads on BNN. SU might do well in this space but I wouldn't have a TV recommendation (or Forum board for that matter) cement the decision. Perhaps fundamentals, technicals or a coin flip.
 

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I took Nuttall's recommendations when I first started. That didn't work too well for me. Since then I stopped listening to many of the talking heads on BNN. SU might do well in this space but I wouldn't have a TV recommendation (or Forum board for that matter) cement the decision. Perhaps fundamentals, technicals or a coin flip.
Yep. I know where you're coming from. I too have gotten burned from TV recs. I'll even go so far as to say they should be banned. I'm sure thousands of inexperienced retail investors have gotten burned too.
This isn't just Eric Nuttall saying SU's his top pick. He bought 1 million shares. And he bought it just 2 trading days ago. Usually big investors don't tell what they've bought so soon.

I have to add another bullish catalyst for SU - the TMX pipeline. SU would be the biggest beneficiary.
 

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For sure Nuttall is a perma bull. But this story also started a long time ago in 2014 when the price fell off and long term oil investment died. O&G is my #1 investment idea. I am still buying shares. It is not only ridiculously cheap on an absolute level, but also relative to the rest of the crazy market with unicorn money-losing companies everywhere, at a time when energy prices could easily soar to record highs.

I have been thinking of some criteria for when I would consider O&G a poor investment:
  • If capital expenditures began to rise to 2019 levels, for example (currently at least 30% below on average).
  • If the oil rig count rose above 2019 levels (currently 30% below pre-COVID).
  • If the total fleet of gas/diesel vehicles began to fall in absolute numbers due to electric vehicle adoption.
  • If nuclear power investment began to surge in developed countries

Most of these danger signals in themselves would take 5 years to reverse course even if they started, which they haven't. So this trend is not in danger of correcting anytime soon. The most likely cause of an oil price crash is a economic crash predicated by unsustainably high oil prices. In a severe depression, governments could even start nationalizing oil and gas. But we are a long way away from this - politicians are all consumed with greening the economy and the majority of the population supports it based on decades of cheap oil and gas. I'll deal with these more extreme situations when oil prices hit record highs ($150/barrel).

Hold onto your hats. This story hasn't even started yet.
 

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I believe Eric Nuttall is worth listening to. Not very many fund managers beat their respective indices. However, he's beating XEG by a huge margin.
This guy knows what he's talking about.


XEG
1 year 108.6% 3 year -7.59%
Ninepoint Energy
1 year 259.6% 3 year +9.05
(figures are from Morningstar. Nuttall joined Ninepoint in 2017)
 

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I have been thinking of some criteria for when I would consider O&G a poor investment:
  • If capital expenditures began to rise to 2019 levels, for example (currently at least 30% below on average).
  • If the oil rig count rose above 2019 levels (currently 30% below pre-COVID).
  • If the total fleet of gas/diesel vehicles began to fall in absolute numbers due to electric vehicle adoption.
  • If nuclear power investment began to surge in developed countries
Hold onto your hats. This story hasn't even started yet.
Great analysis Doctrine.
I'm gonna consider a couple options to cover all bases.
1) Global X Lithium and Battery ETF (LIT) to cover point 3.
2) Cameco to cover point 4.
 

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For now. Eric wasn't so great when with Sprott if I recall correctly. He eventually now has to be right, at least for awhile. That said, I'll qualify my comments by saying I don't think much of any of the talking heads on BNN Market Call. The dartboard is just as effective.

P.S. I had a 25+ year career in the O&G industry and tend to be a perma bear given the shareholder destruction I've seen over those 25+ years. It may colour my attitude. Money can be made but only as a trade.
 

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For now. Eric wasn't so great when with Sprott if I recall correctly. He eventually now has to be right, at least for awhile. That said, I'll qualify my comments by saying I don't think much of any of the talking heads on BNN Market Call. The dartboard is just as effective.

P.S. I had a 25+ year career in the O&G industry and tend to be a perma bear given the shareholder destruction I've seen over those 25+ years. It may colour my attitude. Money can be made but only as a trade.
Good points. Energy stocks are certainly volatile, and the long term returns have been horrendous. But it seems that we are in an energy bull market caused by a shortage of investment right now. Energy has to come from somewhere. I firmly believe renewables are still at least 10 years away from contributing in a significant way to our energy needs, despite the media hype. Another fact: Renewables are not reliable. We have seen this in Texas, but especially in UK and Europe. When future energy crises happen, they will be great times for those who were in energy. No, I hope such things don't happen, but they are inevitable. If countries are foolish enough to depend so much on such an unreliable energy source, I will be invested in O&G.

Another reason I'm bullish O&G? It seems the European energy crisis right now has been deliberately caused by a reduction in nat gas supply from Europe's neighbour to the east. They saw the wind shortage this year and exploited it to the hilt. The Nordstream pipeline will give them even more control. This is going to make nat gas, LNG, and oil (since they are now so correlated vs the past) very valuable commodities going forward.

As for Nuttall, I'm just saying that he is definitely someone worth listening to on energy. There is a huge improvement in his performance since his early Sprott days. All of us on this board are better investors than we were 10 years ago, including Eric Nuttall. We are seeing massive and consistent outperformance vs XEG the last 3 years. I'm pretty certain neither you or I can come anywhere close to his performance by throwing darts at a board.
 

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OPEC: Oil will be world's No. 1 energy source for decades
David Mchugh, The Associated Press - Canadian Press - 4 minutes ago

Oil will satisfy 28.1% of the world's energy demand by 2045, down from 30% in 2020 — but ahead of natural gas with 24.4% and coal with 17.4%. Hydroelectric, nuclear and biomass energy sources and other renewables such as wind and solar make up the rest.

A key reason cited for declining energy use in the more-developed world was demography: shrinking and aging populations that usher in lower economic growth.
 

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I am now at a 1,402,179 $ profit on my XEG position.

Anyone can ring a bell when we reach the peak ? I have the feeling there is much more upside left...
Truly incredible.
Congratulations.

Do you mind if I ask what your return is, or how much your initial capital investment was in XEG in order to return that 1.4M profit?
 
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