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What's not to like?

-Huge buybacks - 12 million shares in Q1, almost 400k a day.
-Still paid down $1B of debt in the quarter
-This in a quarter where WTI was substantially lower than current quarter;
-Capital expenditures are less than half pre-COVID. Pre-COVID, SU was regularly spending $1B+ a quarter on growth initiatives, now less than $300M.
-Extra profits continue to funnel into 2/3 debt reduction, 1/3 extra buybacks

This quarter is in line with virtually every other oil company - far less capital expenditures confirmed. I think buybacks are the way to go and SU is on a slow march back to $40+. I also think oil prices are heading to the moon because of sustained lack of capital investment. India is the only major country in the world with an uncontrolled COVID outbreak, and that may even be peaking now. USA has commenced export of vaccines - the beginning of the end.
Only one thing controls the price of oil OPEC!!!!!
 

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Only one thing controls the price of oil OPEC!!!!!
That is actually not true for the last 6-8 years - US shale oil has been in control of the price of oil since at least 2014 when production surged. OPEC tried twice to break shale but the US is still the #1 oil producer in the world despite going from 13 mboe/day to 11 mboe/day. Now shale has been a spectacular money losing initiative to the tune of $300-400 billion, but there you go. Some private shale companies are in a last surge of production now, likely attempting to juice their numbers to sell to public companies.

CNQ has broken solidly above the early March highs and I think Suncor will too on its way back to >$40.
 

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That is actually not true for the last 6-8 years - US shale oil has been in control of the price of oil since at least 2014 when production surged. OPEC tried twice to break shale but the US is still the #1 oil producer in the world despite going from 13 mboe/day to 11 mboe/day. Now shale has been a spectacular money losing initiative to the tune of $300-400 billion, but there you go. Some private shale companies are in a last surge of production now, likely attempting to juice their numbers to sell to public companies.

CNQ has broken solidly above the early March highs and I think Suncor will too on its way back to >$40.
I hold cnq and suncor but am very wary of OPEC and their proposed production quotas and weather they honor these .I believe the price of oil is extremely fragile and we are at OPEC's mercy.I realize they have to limit production to maintain their price but they can loose control of themselves.
 

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OPEC+ still controls (or at least has the primary influence on) price. Regardless of how much oil the USA pumps, OPEC is the decision maker whether they want to flood the market to push price down to penalize western producers or to let prices rise which then will temper demand growth and for a time, shore up their own Treasuries. The problem, as has been stated many times, is that petro-countries like SA, Russia, Iraq et al fundamentally count on oil revenues to fund national budgets. They can only ride out reduced revenues for so long before cheating becomes the norm. It is going to be that way for decades I think with western producers having a smaller share of global supply (demand) as the years roll by. Which is why it is most important that western producers work on improving margins on existing production rather than trying to increase production. It won't end well if they continue to pursue increased volume.
 

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Currently sitting on a 1,121,632 CAD$ profit on my original XEG position :oops:

Rational behavior would be to sell the position or at least trim it by 50%. However, i think there is still more upside potential in the OIL sector and with commodities as a whole !

Still holding :)
 

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Currently sitting on a 1,121,632 CAD$ profit on my original XEG position :oops:

Rational behavior would be to sell the position or at least trim it by 50%. However, i think there is still more upside potential in the OIL sector and with commodities as a whole !

Still holding :)
Very likely. I have trimmed back OVV and PEY in favour of more conservative SU and less conservative but underweight BTE, so have perhaps left some money on the table. Doing fine though as portfolio is up 56% since YE 2019.
 

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All O&G is doing pretty good. Suncor has the most upside in my opinion of any large cap and maybe even mid-caps. It was a $55 stock in March 2018 when WTI was $60. And it is starting to pop now.

So despite being up 43% year to date, Suncor still has 80% upside to get where it was when oil was $10 a barrel cheaper. The stock buybacks are unrelenting and going to look like a steal when Suncor is back above $40.
 

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All O&G is doing pretty good. Suncor has the most upside in my opinion of any large cap and maybe even mid-caps. It was a $55 stock in March 2018 when WTI was $60. And it is starting to pop now.

So despite being up 43% year to date, Suncor still has 80% upside to get where it was when oil was $10 a barrel cheaper. The stock buybacks are unrelenting and going to look like a steal when Suncor is back above $40.
I bought full position in SU at 18$ then added more at 27$.I feel 36$ is a can't miss,and 44$ is not a stretch.They are making serious money with WCS at or above 50$
 

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+1,203,882 CAD$ from my initial 235,000 shares position :oops:

Still holding !
So I understand that you are at about +120% ?

What's your plan to sell? I would hold it through the summer and sell during August. But that's just a gut-feeling, I'm absolutely no expert of the energy sector.

I've sold OVV.TO too early last month after a +270%. If I had held it one more month, I'd be at +380%.

Still holding SCL.TO though.
 

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If my back of the envelope arithmetic is correct you have a ACB of about 26.00 and looking back in this thread you were buying at $26 .... 10 years ago. While the actual dollars are a very nice amount for sure, the % over that time appears to be less than optimal. SU hasn't split since 2008 so that can't be it. If 235000 shs was your "initial" position something seems odd here. Must be a lot more to the story.
 

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I will hold the XEG position through the summer, still not sure when i want/plan to sell.
Congrats larry on this XEG position. I've traded it a bit over the years, but never caught as good a rally as you've caught here.

Assuming you're for real and not just having fun with fake numbers online...

It's good to have an exit strategy. Mainly this is about emotions, so that you don't let your emotions or beliefs (or attachment) get in the way of making money. The goal here is to make money, not to prove a point to anyone. Exit strategies help take emotion out of the game.

One idea, as you mentioned already, is to liquidate half the position and stay invested with the rest.

Another idea are the "moving averages", which I find are useful indicators of when a trend is alive or dead. It's all pretty arbitrary but as an example, you could use the 200 day exponential moving average, and sell the moment XEG drops below that level.

If you want a more sensitive trigger finger, then you can shorten that to the 100 day exponential moving average. The nice thing about this technique is that as long as the nice uptrend continues, you stay in.

The mechanics of an exit strategy are simple. You just have to decide on one. The hard part is executing on your strategy and following through with it, and fighting your emotions and attachments.

This chart shows XEG with the 100 day exponential moving average. I think this is likely a good way to identify the end of the current rally.

21806
 

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Zooming into the same technical indicator described above. Another tip is to simultaneously monitor XLE (American / multinationals) since they are all closely related. The advantage of watching XLE is that you might see that one drop below the trend line before XEG does.

That would give you an early warning sign and get you ready for imminent selling. If XLE drops below its exponential moving average, it's likely that XEG will as well.

21807
 
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