Here's what I still don't understand about this kind of analysis. Surely, you aren't the only person who figured out the future.I'm not having second thoughts. $65 was obviously an aggressive price, but the fundamentals are pointing only one way. It's March and oil demand is already surging whereas oil and gasoline supplies are continuing to decline worldwide. Recent lockdowns in Europe suggest some demand may stagnate, and many refineries in Texas are still down, but this is just delaying the inevitable.
Well, maybe efficient market isn't the right term, but I would be concerned that people with more expert / inside knowledge than me have already traded and moved the price, to the point I'm at a disadvantage.There's no such thing as an efficient market.
I suspect that could be true for the USA come the summer, provided there is not a 4th wave from the variants in the making (which it increasingly appears to be the case). I doubt the rest of the world is as impulsive as the USA is though. I don't disagree though that SU could be a $40 stock by late summer. Does not matter for me since I haven't directly owned a commodity stock for some years. Regardless, that really will not change the AB landscape much in terms of contractor activity and jobs. The prudent players in the industry will retire damaged balance sheets first.I think oil usage in the US is about to erupt in the next few months...not sure if this is already baked into $60/barrel but this place should be back to pre Covid environment by July.
Shhh...! Gas prices here are already over $1.40 per litre, which is above pre-pandemic levels, despite the lessened demand. I've seen predictions of $1.70 by this summer in Vancouver, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it go even higher.The USA is expecting spot gasoline shortages this summer....not because of crude supply or refining capacity, but a shortage of tank truck drivers after many of them left the industry in 2020. Could be a similar problem here. It is hard to get people back once they have left en masse for other pastures. It is the same kind of problem in any supply chain.
Let's not forget the carbon taxes that have been added....Shhh...! Gas prices here are already over $1.40 per litre, which is above pre-pandemic levels, despite the lessened demand. I've seen predictions of $1.70 by this summer in Vancouver, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it go even higher.
That's great news for all of Canada...impressed that they had their upgrader cooking along at 97%...must be a record.Suncor just posted Q1 earnings, total blowout: 0.49 EPS (0.32 expected)