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Yes...I wish the pimpled ones would check out "clean" sources such as Venezuela & Mexico...fat chance. They'd end up as garbage dump scarecrows.
 

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I wonder whether the matter of ESG, climate change lobby etc weighs on the price. Same with coal. All these "dirty" sources are becoming pariahs on the market.
No, Suncor is lagging other oil companies. ESG investors aren't deciding between which oil company is "dirtier" - they flee all of them. Suncor seems particularly unattractive - yet it was $28 in June with oil at $30 and now 18% lower with oil at $60. CNQ is up 20% since that time - a 38% difference. Although CNQ is also solid value.

And while the integrated model has some downsides, gasoline prices are moving steadily in just one direction - upwards. Not going to help that most Texas refineries just shut down. Gasoline stocks are down year over year, which is hard to believe and shows you how tight gasoline will be by May when everyone is driving.

It is certainly possible that more investors are getting out of Suncor; perception rather than fundamentals drives stocks short term. That is why I believe the share buybacks will fix the problem. Suncor is the first Canadian large oil company to start buybacks. Only a few worldwide are doing it at all now.
 

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+700k as of today.

Surprise that XEG is rising while the rest of the market is tanking !

Ive heard the chatter about the new "oil supercycle"
 

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So now that Suncor is back at $26 is it now a sure thing? :)

SU up 76% since Nov. Still a long way from $40. I think people are buying back into the SU story.

Also, SU is starting their $1B buyback program, although I heard it may already have started. At current prices, given their guidance for 33% of further cash flow going into buybacks, I would think they are going to buy back closer to $1.5B of shares this year, maybe 5% of the company, plus drop below $15B of debt. When people realize 102% of oil consumption is returning, and SU is simultaneously buying back shares, it will drive prices up a lot.
 

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So now that Suncor is back at $26 is it now a sure thing? :)

SU up 76% since Nov. Still a long way from $40. I think people are buying back into the SU story.

Also, SU is starting their $1B buyback program, although I heard it may already have started. At current prices, given their guidance for 33% of further cash flow going into buybacks, I would think they are going to buy back closer to $1.5B of shares this year, maybe 5% of the company, plus drop below $15B of debt. When people realize 102% of oil consumption is returning, and SU is simultaneously buying back shares, it will drive prices up a lot.
What’s your target? I bought it for a quick buck. Sold my TFSA position yesterday. Down about 3% in my non-reg.
 

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What’s your target? I bought it for a quick buck. Sold my TFSA position yesterday. Down about 3% in my non-reg.
$40 is my target by May/June. If the stock was >$45 now, it would be more fully valued. But it's not even close. I think we see $35-40 by early summer as demand really starts to pick up.

My targets can change though - the longer we go with high oil prices, the higher I believe SU can go. I don't think oil is going lower unless there is another black swan.
 

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Surprise that XEG is rising while the rest of the market is tanking !

Ive heard the chatter about the new "oil supercycle"
XEG is a beast lately. Congrats on your massive profit.

I forget, is this part of a diversified portfolio? If it is, I presume you'd want to take profits at some point and spread the money into more diversified investments: more stock sectors, and also bonds.

Or is the plan to continue with a highly concentrated energy/Suncor position? Are you not concerned about the downside of such a sector gamble?
 

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Given current market conditions and outlook, which are far better than anytime in the last 5 years, Suncor could be at or near it's 5 year high which is $50. So at $29.32, it could be 70% more and still arguably be undervalued. Suncor also makes money on the refining margin side and those are exploding higher with the massive outages in US refineries and gasoline stocks plummeting rapidly. I have a pretty big Suncor position myself and I don't think I would consider selling for a while given the upside. The general market definitely does not have 70% upside potential where it could remain undervalued at that price - that would be S&P 500 pushing 7000.
 

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I have a pretty big Suncor position myself and I don't think I would consider selling for a while given the upside.
XEG has been steadily outperforming SU on this rebound. Wouldn't you make more money in XEG?

Over the last year, SU is up 48% and XEG is up 126%
In the last 6 months, SU is up 65% and XEG is up 81%

It seems to me that ever since covid, Suncor is underperforming the sector.

21451
 

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Yeah you're right James. My prediction that SU would turn around harder than XEG isn't panning out. Glad I didn't sell my small holdings of XEG and CPG all along.. But I only added to SU, ENB, RDS and XOM in the past 1 year in the Energy sector instead of the index or smaller companies.
 

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XEG has been steadily outperforming SU on this rebound. Wouldn't you make more money in XEG?

Over the last year, SU is up 48% and XEG is up 126%
In the last 6 months, SU is up 65% and XEG is up 81%

It seems to me that ever since covid, Suncor is underperforming the sector.
Yes, but I believe SU is unusually lagging and will catch up. Really, if oil goes up $80 this year, then XEG or anything in it will do well. But the refining margins and total gasoline demand that SU is more exposed to, and were particularly crushed last year, look very favourable now. They are also one of the few oil companies engaged in meaningful share buybacks which could rocket the share price up. So basically while there may have been a fundamental reason for SU to lag which reflected in the stock price, that looks like its reversing quite rapidly and should theoretically also reverse.
 

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Someday when I have absolutely nothing to do I will thumb through ~10 years of posts.

It is interesting that today's price is about where it was a few times back in 2011. A buy and hold investor would have gotten dividends. I do think this will move as soon as investors are confident these higher crude prices are here to stay...notwithstanding I see the downstream refining business likely to be in a long term funk (lower demand and lower refinery utilization factors perhaps forever).
 

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There have been probably a dozen days or more in the last year where Suncor had a move down of 5% or more. And even more intra-day moves. Such is life. The fundamentals are quite intact. Gasoline and oil markets are going to tighten significantly especially over the next 3-6 months. Supplies are drawing down by at least 3 million boe/d and maybe more like 4 million given recent demand surges in gasoline and jet fuel. Americans in particular are driving and flying more in the last two weeks than anytime since pre-COVID. And it's only March. Get ready.
 
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