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I've postulated in the past (pre-pandemic) that oil demand would never exceed 105-110 million barrels per day before rolling over due to EVs taking on more momentum. I now believe it will barely exceed its previous record high of 100 million barrels per day before rolling over due to ICE efficiencies and EVs. There is almost no oil used for electrical generation now (isolated grids using coal or diesel excepted) so oil is not a factor in electrical generation anyway. Coal will be replaced by renewables and nat gas, mostly in the form of LNG. Many of the largest development projects in the world today are gas related along with XOM's Guyana oil developments.
 

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Still holding XEG ! 325k profit so far (y)

Sold SU at 21 in september for a 39k profit, the bet underperformed the SP 500 (n)

The canadian economy will be in the drain for a decade or more ! o_O
Congrats on still being long XEG. Wow +325K is... huge!

Are you "trading" this or do you plan to hold XEG for many years?

Buy When There's Blood in the Streets
Yeah but don't do it with: BBD.B , NT , GE , C , FNM , FRE , GM

Also wouldn't have worked with Canadian energy companies: AAV, BTE, ERF, GTE ... or maybe it will! I'll let people braver than me try buying those.
 

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Nice larry! I bought Suncor at ~$15 in March but then amazingly it went back to $15 in October for a full round trip - up 100%, down 50%. So I doubled down and now I have a pretty big position and THAT has definitely beat the S&P 500 in the last 3 weeks. I'm not likely going to hit your XEG profit numbers though!

I plan on holding SU until at least next summer. We'll see what oil prices do. I see little point in selling before oil gets solidly above $50, maybe $55 and perhaps as much as $60. I am quite certain (>80%) that SU will get back to the $40s within 1-2 years. I would probably be selling or trimming by then as I would be very overweight.
 

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Congrats on still being long XEG. Wow +325K is... huge!

Are you "trading" this or do you plan to hold XEG for many years?
Not sure, Trudeau gov is openly anti-oil. I am not convinced that things are looking good for canadian producers.

That being said, almost +400k as of this morning. This is the part when an investor need to balance greed vs. realism :)

I like my plain boring VUN/VCN/VIU/VEE better than XEG.
 

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Not sure, Trudeau gov is openly anti-oil. I am not convinced that things are looking good for canadian producers.
Trudeau has nothing to do with the performance of your energy stocks. If you doubt that, just look at XEG (Canada) versus XLE (global energy) ... they correlate perfectly and have performed the same.
 

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FWIW, some of you may have missed the news yesterday that the owners of Syncrude have decided to change operatorship to Suncor by the end of 2021. That will make a significant difference (reduction) in operating costs since Suncor can get more economies of scale. Syncrude will essentially become a 'normal' JV, likely a 'unit' in O&G parlance. That will cause all Syncrude employees to become employees of Suncor and redundant operations can be eliminated/reduced... as in maintenance, office A&G, etc. The goal, apparently, is to get operating costs of the joint complex down to $30/Bbl or perhaps even lower with new technology fully applied, e.g. driverless trucks.
 

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Trudeau has nothing to do with the performance of your energy stocks. If you doubt that, just look at XEG (Canada) versus XLE (global energy) ... they correlate perfectly and have performed the same.
my god you are 100% right, thanks for the insight !

I should probably not invest in things that i dont properly understand.

I am no better than degerate gambler !

I blame COVID !
 

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FWIW, some of you may have missed the news yesterday that the owners of Syncrude have decided to change operatorship to Suncor by the end of 2021. That will make a significant difference (reduction) in operating costs since Suncor can get more economies of scale. Syncrude will essentially become a 'normal' JV, likely a 'unit' in O&G parlance. That will cause all Syncrude employees to become employees of Suncor and redundant operations can be eliminated/reduced... as in maintenance, office A&G, etc. The goal, apparently, is to get operating costs of the joint complex down to $30/Bbl or perhaps even lower with new technology fully applied, e.g. driverless trucks.
This is pretty big news. Basically they can achieve $300M in cost efficiencies without having to acquire anything. 1/4 of the Husky/Cenovus synergies with zero dilution. $40-45 historic cash operating costs of Syncrude are just not cutting it and it is better to lose some jobs than all jobs.
 

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my god you are 100% right, thanks for the insight !
You're welcome. I'm so happy that you were able to learn something new.

(Not that you have)

That's the danger, larry, of stepping outside of one's ideological echo chamber. One starts encountering reality as indicated by data.
 

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It is quite shocking that Suncor is at $22-23 when WTI is at $60 (nearly $61) and WCS is pushing $50. SU is the most compelling value on the TSX composite, in my opinion, especially given the size of the company, the assets, and the relatively low debt. Should probably be $35-40 at this point for more fair value. That's okay though, they will be buying back 50-70% more shares at this price and I believe the price will correct relatively quickly once those share buybacks pick up steam.
 

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It is quite shocking that Suncor is at $22-23 when WTI is at $60 (nearly $61) and WCS is pushing $50. SU is the most compelling value on the TSX composite, in my opinion, especially given the size of the company, the assets, and the relatively low debt. Should probably be $35-40 at this point for more fair value. That's okay though, they will be buying back 50-70% more shares at this price and I believe the price will correct relatively quickly once those share buybacks pick up steam.
I am not sure why didnt raise with the others oilco and is lagging so much
 

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As an integrated, it is not going to see the same trend as pure upstream producers do with crude price changes .Its refining and marketing business margins will be squeezed with crude price increases. Additionally, condensate blending and nat gas fuel costs go up as well. The reason folks own SU versus other producers is for the more 'balanced' nature of its operations.
 

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I am not sure why didnt raise with the others oilco and is lagging so much
Consider the price change of a few companies from ~Dec 2019 to present.

Chevron: -23% (Integrate - Top Notch)
Exxon: -28% (Integrated - Almost top notch)
Suncor: - 43% (Integrated - Small - Low diversity of crude production and 2nd rate (high cost) Canadian refineries)
Shell: - 34% (Integrated - Green spending, Europe focused)
CNRL: -19% (Not Integrated - Upstream price fluctuations)

Suncor being at the bottom of the pack, but not too much worse-off, seems about right to me.
 

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It is quite shocking that Suncor is at $22-23 when WTI is at $60 (nearly $61) and WCS is pushing $50. SU is the most compelling value on the TSX composite,
I wonder whether the matter of ESG, climate change lobby etc weighs on the price. Same with coal. All these "dirty" sources are becoming pariahs on the market.
 
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