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Anyone know why Mnuchin met with some Russian ministers in secret 4 days ago. Wasn't on his calendar
No...but I will try to find out. Wonder if it has anything to do with the Saudi's and the oil price war going on. I bet the US frackers are not happy. I know we in Alberta are tightening our belts.....will be touching stomach to spine pretty soon.
 

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Maybe we could talk Canada into using Canadian oil...nah...never happen.
I suppose having ... or should I say, giving Irving money to convert their refinery to be able to use Alberta crude might help a bit. Quebec and Ontario already use Canadian oil.

It probably doesn't help that Canada refines more than it uses ... and has for years.


Cheers
 

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Although Quebec & Ontario use some Canadian oil Ontario imports from the USA & Quebec imports over half its oil from outside Canada. Norway imports no oil & mandates only Norwegian oil can be used in the country...but what ever.
 

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^ I ditched about half my XEG and bought more SU and XOM a week or two ago. Good decision, but I wish I had just sold the whole lot of them!
 

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How does this all end? Keep hearing noone is making $ yet they all keep drilling lol
Existing rig contracts for the most part, e.g. a company may contract for 20 wells with one rig. And in most cases, companies would have contracted through the winter drilling season until spring break up which will be happening soon. Rig count will fall off the map at that point.

Remember the business was looking up until the double whammy of the Saudi-Russian feud AND the COVID-19 crisis.

Added: No numbers available without a subscription, but the daily mood is characterized here https://www.dailyoilbulletin.com/category/rig-counts/

And if you want to know what rig is drilling for whom and where....... https://riggertalk.com/drilling_rigs_list.php?pageno=1&mapsearch=List+view
 

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How does this all end?
don't know, not sure anyone knows

I nibbled on SU today - but still not convinced this train wreck is done. I read this today on the qtrade newsfeed:

"The plunge in oil prices are largely the result of a one-two punch in which coronavirus is shrinking demand while production stays robust amid a Russia-Saudi battle over market share, and something's gotta give, says UniCredit's Edoardo Campanella. "The conflict increasingly resembles the traditional hawk-and-dove game," he says. "Saudi Arabia wants to punish Russia for its lack of commitment to the OPEC+ alliance, while Moscow wants to exert as much pressure on American producers in retaliation for Washington's boycotting of the North Stream 2 pipeline ... Sooner or later, one of the two or both will have to blink." WTI falls 19% to $21.80 a barrel and is now down 51% this month.
([email protected])

So...my guess is that "until one or both blink", we're in the poop....
but, ...but after they blink, then maybe things will improve a little for the price of crude.
 

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Although Quebec & Ontario use some Canadian oil Ontario imports from the USA & Quebec imports over half its oil from outside Canada ...
Is that focusing on the details and losing sight of the big picture?

Using the 2018 production numbers, Canadian production was 4.6 MMb/d where 1.7 went to Canadian refineries. Foreign Imports were 0.6 MMb/d. Unless Canadian refineries were running at nowhere near full production capacity, getting the foreign imports to zero seems like a minor change at shift of about 13%. There's the same amount as the entire amount going to Canadian refineries at the whims of world prices.

That's without considering the upgrades costing millions needed to shift the 0.6 MMb/d to Canadian refineries. Some likely would take years to come on stream.

It seems more of an expensive band-aid than a solution.


... Norway imports no oil & mandates only Norwegian oil can be used in the country ...
Sure ... but do you really think a gov't mandate away from decades of pushing the integrated NA private system is going to go over well? What would make it different than the uproar about the NEP?


... but what ever.
If you see something I haven't heard or missed, feel free to enlighten me.

Otherwise you seem to prefer to believe a 13% shift is going to out weight the financial effects of the other 50% of production.


Cheers
 

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SU at $15 today. CNQ at $11. CNQ released an update that they are reducing capital expenditures 33% but are pumping at full capacity and can sustain production and the dividend (at 15%) at current prices. Waiting to hear on SU. I believe SU is also pumping at maximum capacity and is unlikely to stop.

There is strategy here. SU and CNQ do not want to lose market share and benefit by higher cost or more indebted producers going under. As well, if Alberta curtails production, it will be based on current production levels, and so they want to be as high as possible.

A production curtailment is already happening though, crude by rail is evaporating and the pipelines may start running at less than full capacity shortly.
 

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Just reminding myself again that @ $55 oil Suncor was comfortable paying out $5B to shareholders through the dividend and the buyback. At current levels that is a 20% annual return to the shareholder from FCF that they're willing to part with.

I hope for now that they outright suspend the dividend and keep the buyback going, if they can afford that at the moment, to ensure they have the cash for continuing capital expenses for the next 10 years.

Also remember the mine extension plans in the works with the regulatory process just started, adding 25 years of production starting 10 years from now, of 2B barrels total; and don't forget the possibility of upcoming lease swaps/buyouts of Syncrude reserves, adding some 1-2B barrels of easily mined ore that will need minimal Capex. There's also the possible sale of some Syncrude assets to CNRShell for a big cash infusion. Plus the likely reduction in OPEX as automation of truck fleets is figured out, and the likely lowering/stagnation of staff salaries on a medium-term time frame.

I'd still be buying if I had the money to spare, but I'm biased.
 
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