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I am officially "Margin Free!" :biggrin:
Congrats Kaejs! That is a huge accomplishment. I think things will be much easier for you with the margin monkey off your back. Things become so much clearer without the need to worry about a margin call. On the flip side the potential payouts are lower but from my understanding the less worry the clearer the mind.

Cheers!
 

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I don't want to sound like a cheerleader for SU, or for any other stock for that matter. My job as an investor is to look objectively and soberly at the facts. All the facts seem to tell me that this is one of my best investment options right now. The Nuttuall endorsement really cemented it for me. I plan to buy alot more this week. Hopefully the dividend increase doesn't happen this week lol.

How about you guys? Where does it rank among your potential and present investments?
I took Nuttall's recommendations when I first started. That didn't work too well for me. Since then I stopped listening to many of the talking heads on BNN. SU might do well in this space but I wouldn't have a TV recommendation (or Forum board for that matter) cement the decision. Perhaps fundamentals, technicals or a coin flip.
 

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Well done @hboy. IMO you are the king of deep value. I have read and watched other threads where you have done similar especially in the commodities sector. Your conviction and patience is remarkable. Back to energy stocks. I was eyeballing oil and gas late 2018 early 2019, even though I pledged an oath to only play this sector through the likes of pipelines having learned by riding the likes of eagle energy, longview, renegade, surge energy and crescent point a decade ago. In the spring of 2020 I was looking at SU, CVX, XOM, CVE and CNQ as they may offer a little more protection than the juniors. At that time I was leaning heavily towards CVX to increase US allocation and a possible transition to converting their fuel stations to recharge stations. When the pandemic hit in 2020 I turned my attention to other opportunities and increased my positions in financials. I feel that CVX has lagged the rest of the oil and gas stocks but haven't looked closely at it in about a year. There is definitely bullishness on oil and commodities in general. I was late to the party last time but came out relatively unscathed (aside from CPG and SGY). It's rarely a good idea to stay late at the party. :p O&G may be a major player in 2022 as more money and attention come to the sector. Will the current pullback be limited to tech or will we see a market wide correction?
 

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In the short term markets are very irrational based on the reasons above (too much info, too quickly, interpreted by too many people). Longer term fundamentals will determine a companies value but in the interim the market is in a proverbial tug of war. One has to remember that although analysts and hedge funds have better and quicker access to information, they also have different, constraints, agendas and time lines.

As a long time member of the community @james4beach you know there are plenty of members that have outperformed fund managers. My own performance has matched the markets over the long run (sometimes slighty outperforming sometimes slightly underperforming) but I do not achieve as good as results as some here. I have followed some of @doctrine 's observations(and many others) to do my own analysis over the years. He has a good track record going back a number of years. A few examples that come to mind are Automodular (TSE: AM) | Canadian Money Forum, TransForce Inc (TFI) | Canadian Money Forum, and Western Forest Products (WEF) | Page 4 | Canadian Money Forum There are many others here(yourself included) that have great insight into certain sectors, markets and analysis.
 

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Both @doctrine and @james4beach make great points above.

I agree with you Doc that not much has changed other than sentiment. It was sentiment that saw it spike and it was sentiment that saw it fall. I agree that we will see more demand in the upcoming months. Energy companies should have great results next quarter. This may or may not already be priced in based on if results exceed the higher expectations. With oil at $80-90 these companies are very profitable.

My fear surrounding oil and commodities in general is how quickly we can solve supply issues by announcing a ramp up in production. The oil market is so easily manipulated. OPEC and the Saudi's can easily announce an increase in production. Even the discussion about it has caused a quick drop. We have seen this before Looking back at 2019 many thought we had seen peak demand but that was not the case. From an investor standpoint I hope current prices hover around $100 but see $80-90 as more realistic. This will remove some of the manipulation by OPEC and lower fuel prices. Late last week and again this week the term peak demand is being tossed around. At some point we will see demand destruction but I don't believe we're there yet.

Current prices should help boost revenue but I don't foresee a big investment in capital expansion unless high prices are sustained longer term. Many of these companies have done a good job in cutting production costs. Will they be able to continue to do so while ramping up production? There may be labour and supply chain issues which should sort themselves out at a certain price point. At what point does it have too big an impact on profit. In previous cycles, the higher the price oil rose the quicker these companies were to waste money. I also heard about similar circumstances during the high oil prices in the 70s and 80s. Has the industry learned from the past or will the same mistakes be made again? Lessons are hard to learn.

Many of the smaller energy companies are indicating they are having problems getting financing. Those that are highly indebted will likely go by the wayside or be taken out. Is there a likelihood that some of the larger and better capitalized companies will be able to leverage opportunities by supplying capital to those that are having difficulties due to "ESG"?

Here is an article I read last week to provide some historical perspective on 50 years of volatility.

Crude Oil Price History: A Chart of Events Since 1970 (thebalance.com)

To elaborate on James point, I wonder how many funds have used the recent spike in commodities to capture some gains to off set their losses in tech/Nasdaq stocks this year? It would be a quick way to mitigate a 20% loss. As always, being tied to your thesis can cause a lot of damage. I welcome others to play devils advocate or point out flaws in my thinking. Another threat is indecision. I had planned to jump into energy last fall but held off as I was still stinging from the last run up. We can certainly get in the way of our results sometimes.
 

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Anyone got thoughts on the drillers and oil service stocks? Would think there are untapped areas which could be exploited . People say the industry isn't interested in capex for a host of reasons. $100 oil and $8 gas must be awful tempting . Tamarack and Baytex have been drilling in the Clearwater basin with great results. If one does move in this direction which is the best prospect? Halliburton ,Ensign , Precision, Calfrac?
I am not sure how long it will be before the drillers start to see some attention. The last time oil was at record prices the industry was punching holes everywhere. I think there is still some uncertainty over supply constraints for frac materials. Also a lot of the labour left during the down turn. For now, energy companies are happy to make the easy money before seeking higher cost supply. I think you are correct that the next opportunity is with this part of the sector. If I were to make this play I would look to the companies that supply these operations and than the companies themselves.
 

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I am considering picking up Chevron on the next dip to play both the upstream and downstream play. I think they will be able to adapt to EV by converting their service stations. I meant to pick them up in early 2020 but got excited by many other buying opportunities during the pandemic crash. I haven't taken a close look at the valuation but will do so before the next earnings in July. I am not sure if an opportunity will present itself until the war in Ukraine has ended. I think demand destruction for oil is a ways out. Adding to energy would tilt my commodity exposure to the oily side as I haven't purchased a lumber stock after selling WEF last fall.
 

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It's almost a given that oil was oversold and that at some point a catalyst would come along. what was unknown was when it would happen, what the catalyst would be, how high and how fast it would rise on the upswing. Commodities are cyclical. Anybody who has seen a couple cycles can recognize a general pattern. One cannot time the top and bottom exactly but can still manage to make some profits as it ebbs and flows.
 

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As I stated earlier in this thread a catalyst is always needed to shift sentiment from extreme pessimism to extreme optimism. Currently one can look back to several circumstances that triggered the current valuation. (Inflation, Ukraine invasion, China lockdown, decreased capex, etc.) It may take the removal of several of these items to shift sentiment the opposite direction. Or it could take one. I tend to pay attention to seasonality with commodities more than other stocks and will continue to monitor and evaluate. I would also note that many investors of 2020 didn't advertise their purchases until the oil bull was charging ahead. I am sure we will also hear after the crash of many that sold before "X" happened. I am not saying that people are required to share this information in real time nor do I disbelieve them. However, I attribute the hesitation to simple fear aversion. Many are afraid to be wrong, criticized or questioned and that is natural. However, if you go through the various posts you can see who was buying in 2020 and who was not. I for one, was not. I sat on my hands and missed a lot of the ride. I also deployed a bundle into banks, telcos, pipes and utilities during the pandemic selloff. As @peterk notes when to get out will be fraught with issues as well. Some will get out too soon, some too late and a few may identify when the time is right. We have to remember every seller needs a buyer and every buyer needs a seller.

edit: typo
 

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It was not criticism, or at least it wasn't intended to be. As a long time member Hboy I am familiar with your contrarian history of buying stocks when they are not bruised but when they are beaten down. You have done amazingly well, but it does require a strong stomach and a lot of conviction. I even recall a few stocks that I bought that I thought were great value plays where you questioned (rightfully) my rationale. GSK comes to mind which has been dead money for me for many years. Many may not follow your style. As I recall you are willing to accumulate the unloved stocks and hold for years waiting for the pop. If memory serves me well WFG(or another lumber play) was one that you bought near the lows before the start of the last lumber bull. (not the recent covid run).
 
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