Agree. Once we are past Omnicron I see a big surge in demand especially in the travel industry. People want to break the covid chain and get back to travelling and reconnecting.While I agree a number of OPEC countries are already faltering in their ability to fill their shares of the monthly 400kpd production increases, others have more ability to do so such as SA, Russia, Iraq, Libya et al. Never mind that US production is increasing again (almost 1 million barrels per day over the past year) and Exxon is making great strides to get to 1 million barrels per day or more in Guyana (albeit a 5 year program to get there). I see US production adding potentially another 500-1000 kpd of production by the end of 2022 if prices remain in the $60-80 range. Supply is not as constrained as you make it out to be but I agree there will be limitations depending on how demand increases play out.
With some short term aberrations, I see the supply/demand balance remaining reasonably close, close enough to likely keep prices in the $60-80 range over the course of 2022 and beyond. We will see some continued growth in XEG prices and for select O&G companies, but I don't see XEG ever returning to its ~$20 peak back in 2014. XEG in the $15 range may be the best it can do over the next few years.