Canadian Money Forum banner
1 - 13 of 13 Posts

·
Registered
Joined
·
511 Posts
Suncor has been really hit - apparently many funds, who typically would have both SU and CNQ, have been shedding SU and in some cases shorting and going long CNQ. CNQ seems to be more popular because they are not exposed to refining margins, not suffering under a low price differential anymore, and are proving to be the low cost leader and also now the largest oil and nat gas producer in Canada.

But Suncor will be around too and I've been adding to my previous positions at $15 and $16 in the last few weeks, in addition to the shares I bought back in March/April. Suncor may take a bite at something in the next few months too like CNQ did with Pony.
I have been buying of late too. Started at $18 now with ACB low $16s. Booked some losses on OVV which is up 4x from March lows to buy SU at March lows.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
511 Posts
Currently sitting on a 1,121,632 CAD$ profit on my original XEG position :oops:

Rational behavior would be to sell the position or at least trim it by 50%. However, i think there is still more upside potential in the OIL sector and with commodities as a whole !

Still holding :)
Very likely. I have trimmed back OVV and PEY in favour of more conservative SU and less conservative but underweight BTE, so have perhaps left some money on the table. Doing fine though as portfolio is up 56% since YE 2019.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
511 Posts
Congrats @larry81 and everyone else who was brave enough to go long energy! The thought crossed my mind, but it just kept going lower and lower and lower.
Investors seem to want to optimize a curious variable, the transaction win loss ratio. Learn to let that one go and optimize CAGR. My ACB in most of my energy (ie everything but Suncor) is hundreds of percent higher than last years lows, so I have many losing transactions, perhaps even majority still. But 20 year CAGR and dollars gained is quite sweet.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
511 Posts
A few months back one of my energy became my first 7 figure holding. Another one just became my first 7 figure accrued capital gain. There is every chance this year that a daily portfolio gain will be larger than my portfolio value circa March 2020. I violated all the rules of diversified investing, but sometimes an opportunity is so obvious you just have to go for it.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
511 Posts
There is every chance this year that a daily portfolio gain will be larger than my portfolio value circa March 2020.
Yesterday was the day. BTE almost got me there all by itself.

I call fossil fuels energy the hypocrisy trade. Most everyone agrees that we have a problem with rising temperatures due to GHGs, but talk is cheap: almost nobody actually wants to personally do much about it. Tag the energy companies with the responsibility and carry on with life at 130kmh on 400 series highways, continue to lust after 4000SF houses, and fly out twice annually on vacations.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
511 Posts
Guys please help me, i am making so much money on this insane trade i dont know what to do. About +2.3M as i am writing this.

Maybe i should buy myself a second wife ! 🤣🤣🤣
I recommend a third sailboat over a second wife. Worked for me.

For Eder and the one or two others that know sailboats, if I had waited another year, might have a 10 year old Sabre 406 or 426 instead of a 40 year old Corbin 39 LOL.

The returns in oil and gas have been truly stunning of late.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
511 Posts
What James called "aggressive speculation" in oil stocks I call most obvious investment in my 4 decades as an investor.

I would suggest that a lesson here might be that sometimes the market gets stunningly irrational and next time, instead of watching it go by, be brave and participate.

Another lesson might be to not fear a "falling knife" if it is clear value. You have no control over the irrationality of other investors, but you can just keep buying more shares. I bought energy shares maybe 2 or 3 dozen times between mid 2019 and late 2020 and was deep under water for about 2 years. The truth eventually emerges and am now up substantially.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
511 Posts
If the direction of oil is so predictable and obvious, why are you guys wasting time with non-leveraged things like XEG? When you know with such certainty where a price is going, you should use leverage.

In the last 6 months, XEG is up 73%. But UCO (leveraged oil ETF) is up 168%, more than double! And HOU (Horizons BetaPro oil) is up 185%

Those of you with the in-depth knowledge that lets you predict oil, have left a lot of money on the table. When it was so obvious and such a sure thing, why didn't you use UCO or HOU?

HNU -- leveraged natural gas -- is up 461% in the last year. Is that also an obvious and predictable commodity?
Well the term I used was "obvious investment" and the time frame was circa 2020. It does not imply a certainty of outcome but rather very high expected value - there is still x probability of $0 in the summation of the expected value. It also doesn't imply certainty of timeline or price path. My portfolio dropped 85% from year end 2019 to minima circa March 2020, and now stands up about 270% from year end 2019. So no, not interested in leveraged products.

After greater than 10 bagger results in many names, I am not calling oil a "most obvious investment" now, though chances still look awfully good.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
511 Posts
Wait what?! What kind of portfolio do you have, I'm interested and curious. Those are big swings up and down!
80% oil and gas: BTE, PEY, OVV, SU. I was buying OVV starting mid to late 2019 between around IIRC $13-$20. At current ~ $74, doesn't look so bad, but it troughed out around $3. That is how one gets a -85%. I also loaded up more OVV in TFSAs and RRSPs at $3s while down ~85%. I bought BTE circa 2020 over 9 occasions at an average of $0.43 over 6 accounts (TFSA RRSP, margin) x2 to drop my ACB to $1.42. That and a few other moves is how one gets a +270%.
There has been some criticism elsewhere in the thread that "we" did not announce our moves circa 2020. I used to years ago explain why I do what I do, but there was no real interest, so I stopped. There are not many investors who step outside the conventional investing wisdom, so I am irrelevant.
 
1 - 13 of 13 Posts
Top