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Discussion Starter · #1 · (Edited)
I work(ed) in high-tech, near Silicon Valley in the US, and saw the industry become extremely over-heated. It ramped up around 2017, people getting insanely high salaries, huge stock compensation, companies getting VC funding and selling out, seemingly everyone (in tech) getting rich beyond their wildest dreams. There was so much money flowing around and making everyone rich. It got even more insane in 2019 and then we know what happened in 2020-2021 when it went ballistic.

People in the media talk about covid and the pandemic stimulus driving tech higher, but it all started long before then. The tech market was already insane by 2019. The whole thing was pumped up for many years by the Fed's zero rates and QE, going back to at least 2014.

I think there was a tech bubble and I think it's bursting now (with credit tightening). I'm curious if any of you trader type of people are shorting tech? I have no position, but I'm watching this chart... PSQ = short QQQ

Rectangle Slope Plot Line Font


Could this be the start of a long uptrend, perhaps? (meaning a prolonged NASDAQ crash)

I think it might play out like that. I think we could be in a phase of the game like 2001, where everyone is in denial and doesn't yet acknowledge that the bubble is crashing. Many signs are there, including the giant leaders finally cracking and crashing ... AMZN, TSLA, AAPL.

In the first phase of the crash, the tiny sketchy companies (all the SPAC / micro cap junk) crashed. The crypto garbage got wiped out. When the giant/mainstream ones start to fall, you're in the next phase of a crash. The same kind of pattern played out during previous crashes such as 2007-2008 banks and lenders.

This is very speculative of course, but I think there's a chance that we could be in the early phase of a prolonged crash and bear market in American tech.
 

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Discussion Starter · #4 ·
I removed all exposure to cashflow negative tech over a year ago. Shorting is something I considered but chose not to. It’s been in a bear market for these companies for some time and while it can always going lower I think the easy money has already been made.
Interesting, thanks. I also have been careful to control my exposure to these kinds of things but I just haven't gone as far as short selling.

Going short is a dangerous game, as equities tend to go up over time.
 

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Discussion Starter · #7 ·
I am actually considering putting next tax-free account investment into TQQQ if next earnings don't show massive deterioration
TQQQ performance since inception is 33% annualized. If $10,000 was invested when this fund was created 12 years ago, the investment would now be worth $306,000.

However I think the extreme popularity of leveraged QQQ investments like TQQQ is a symptom of this tech bubble. You're definitely playing with fire if you hold this long term.
 
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