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I was annoyed that I missed the last Irish boom having seen it coming for a while. Now that it is in a bust I am wondering what would be a good investment for this economy - an Irish ETF?
 

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Talk about a fall...

IRE: from $97 to $2 in four years
AIB: from $62 to $1 in four years
IPM: from $22 to $0.9 in four years

EU and IMF have been asked to step in. Google has the unemployment rate at 14%.
 

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I'm curious why you folks are looking to invest in Ireland.
What do you see growing there?
It's a good location for small businesses and because of the lax tax laws, a lot of large corporations move their HQ there.
But other than that, what's there - there is no significant manufacturing, argriculture, resources, etc.

Or is this mostly a short term play, hoping for a dead cat bounce on these stocks once the bailouts are through?
 

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I'm curious why you folks are looking to invest in Ireland.
What do you see growing there?
It's a good location for small businesses and because of the lax tax laws, a lot of large corporations move their HQ there.
But other than that, what's there - there is no significant manufacturing, argriculture, resources, etc.

Or is this mostly a short term play, hoping for a dead cat bounce on these stocks once the bailouts are through?
The only positive points I see about Ireleand would be that:
- Except for those that hoard money under their beds, people need banks for everyday stuff
- I think it's in a better place than Greece was/is

If I were to invest, it would be in the Bank of Ireland as the government hasn't had to step in yet (maybe like a Ford/GM scenario). Either way, they all have too much bad debt.
 

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I was annoyed that I missed the last Irish boom having seen it coming for a while. Now that it is in a bust I am wondering what would be a good investment for this economy?
Leprechauns!!! , those little buggers are loaded , hard to catch tho.

 

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I would not recommend the Irish banks. They may we be "recapitalized" which is code for "your shares become worthless". Just because they are cheap doesn't mean they can't go to zero, and if you buy at $2.00 a share and it goes to nothing it's still a 100% loss!

On top of that you have currency risk, and with the EUR being beaten up any gains you get face currency headwinds especially vs. the very strong CAN$.
 

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It's a good location for small businesses and because of the lax tax laws, a lot of large corporations move their HQ there.
But other than that, what's there - there is no significant manufacturing, argriculture, resources, etc.
I am from Ireland. Just to clarify a few things:
1. Low corporate taxes induced many companies to establish business in Ireland but those tax rates are set to increase as a condition of the bailout.
2. "No significant manufacturing"...really? For its size, Ireland has historically had a significant share of big pharma and medical device manufacturing in particular. As for agriculture, that is one of the backbones of the Irish economy. Resources: true, not a strength, but there is offshore oil & gas.

I have no intention of investing in Irish financial instruments at the present time. Accountability is insufficient and the risk of default is too high. On the other hand, property values have fallen by 50-60% since the peak in 2006. If I had a big chunk of spare cash (which I don't) I might consider investing in a rural cottage to use as a vacation home.
 

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The debt crisis surfacing in various countries started with the banks giving out bad loans, which suppresses the real estate market creating an economic decline. This cuts into tax revenue forcing higher taxes, lowering economic growth and will eventually force a smaller government (hurray!). There are much better risk/reward investments out there then the banks and real estate of these countries. Imo, it will be at least a couple of decades before these sectors in these countries have another boom.
 

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For fun (as in gambling) I bought Bank of Ireland at $2.24, and AIB at 1.14. I stress this is not investing, I realize it's gambling but I have a bit of cash to play with. Of course I'm hoping the stocks go up, but if they don't I know I took my chances.
 

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Imo, it will be at least a couple of decades before these sectors in these countries have another boom.
I was talking with an Irish economist about this last night and he said much the same thing. He figures it'll take a full generation for Ireland to get back on its feet after this one. But he did agree that this might be a good time to buy real estate in Ireland if you're willing to hold it for 15 years or more before selling.
 

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I'm just dreading when the US realizes it has to actually start paying down it's debt - this PIGS stuff is peanuts compared to what happens when the US starts to seriously cut.

It's funny - they use the IMF to push Greece and Ireland to slash spending and raise taxes to get things under control... but the US just spends like there is no tomorrow, keeps taxes artificially (unsustainably) low, and prints trillions and trillions of dollars. How do they not see the writing on the wall?

With this in mind - you better know how to profit in markets that go down or sideways as well as up. I can't see how the markets will be up 10% a year for the next 20... I just don't see it.
 

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With this in mind - you better know how to profit in markets that go down or sideways as well as up. I can't see how the markets will be up 10% a year for the next 20... I just don't see it.
I don't see 20 consecutive years of 10% returns but the next few years are looking good. There is a huge amount of capital in public investments today vs. private. As world capital flows from public to private investments, world stock and commodity prices will increase while currencies and government will not... in general.
 
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