Canadian Money Forum banner

1 - 20 of 41 Posts

·
Banned
Joined
·
50 Posts
Discussion Starter #1
For about the last six months I have been slowing my stock purchases as I see fewer and fewer deals out there. There have been a few pullbacks that didn't materialize into anything after things looked scary for a few days. I was hoping for a meaningful correction so that I could deploy my cash.

Bonds are out of the question as they will drop in value as rates rise.

Real estate is incredibly over-priced.

I keep accumulating cash and have about 5 years expenses at the moment and am getting more and more frustrated. I feel like investing heavily into the market now is not the right move but I am losing $ with my cash sitting there doing nothing.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
274 Posts
I feel like investing heavily into the market now is not the right move but I am losing $ with my cash sitting there doing nothing.
So are you planning to invest based on emotion? Does that sound like a wise move to you? And "losing $" is relatively speaking... you may lose more, less, the same. And technically all you are losing is inflation which is squat right now anyway.
 

·
Banned
Joined
·
2,508 Posts
That's why I am just going to pay the mortgage off for now. We didn't get the best rate a couple years ago but the extra payments make a huge difference.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
222 Posts
For about the last six months I have been slowing my stock purchases as I see fewer and fewer deals out there. There have been a few pullbacks that didn't materialize into anything after things looked scary for a few days. I was hoping for a meaningful correction so that I could deploy my cash.
I'm in roughly the same boat. My purchases are few and far between. In the past six months, I've made one acquisition (Uni-Select, UNS). I've had my eye on Precision Drilling Trust, which was really tempting me when it was hovering around $6 a few days ago, but it has since rebounded to over $7.50.



K.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,061 Posts
Companies that manufacture equipment to prevent offshore oil spills would probably be a good investment right now; they'll probably be really busy for the next decade. :D
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
117 Posts
Really? I think you need to look harder! I expected to stall my buying by this point of the cycle, but am still finding some great deals.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
117 Posts
Care to provide some examples?
How about PGF.UN (Penn Growth)? A solid company, not too far off it's 52 week lows.

TRP and FTS are still a steal at current prices, imo. Been loading up.

Also on my deal radar - Shaw, CML Healthcare, Yellow Pages, Manulife, Husky. To name just a few!
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
222 Posts
How about PGF.UN (Penn Growth)? A solid company, not too far off it's 52 week lows.
I recall looking at PGF.UN not too long ago, but excluded it at the time, though I don't recall why ... I will have to check up on that one again. (I suspect that I had concerns over a cut in the dividend when it converts to a corporation.) It's a good suggestion, though -- thanks.

TRP and FTS are still a steal at current prices, imo. Been loading up.
TRP has too much debt for my tastes (and is trading at multiples of its book value which are a bit higher than I like). FTS also has too much debt for my tastes.

For reference, here are the main stocks on my deal radar -- they aren't quite at my buy points yet (typically 8 to 20% higher than I want), and they include:

HLF (High Liner)
ALA.UN (AltaGas)
MRD (Melcor Developments)
AQN (Algonquin Power)
Enerplus (ERF.UN)
Marathon (MRO)


K.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
7,252 Posts
Bonds are out of the question as they will drop in value as rates rise.
I wouldn't write them off as easily, esp. if you don't mind corporate debt.
Unless you want to trade bonds actively, the rise in interest rates is less of a concern if you wanna hold till maturity.
In that case, you have to look at the YTM and the payout risk (rating, reliability of the company, etc.).
Even today, you can get corporate bonds rated BBB+ or higher yielding in the low-to-mid 5% for a 4 to 5 year TTM.
 

·
Banned
Joined
·
50 Posts
Been buying some CS - Credit Suisse
MIR Mirant in the 11s
Premium Brands in the 12s
was in Slate street too early but was 10% from where I was watching it
AG growth
Trican
Foremost

orders in for :
ALA
CLL
VLN
ARE
S had sold long time ago at 7 would buy again at 6
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
222 Posts
I'm assuming "Velan". It keeps popping up on my stock screens, and I love manufacturers (since they're generally simple to understand & evaluate), but the issue that I have with Velan is that they've done such a historically poor job of creating value for shareholders.

Their historical RoE fluctuates, but has been only a few % in each of the past 7 years. This suggests either an incompetent or not a shareholder-focused management. I've stayed away as a result.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
7 Posts
Same here, every stock looks overpriced, and Covid is still no-where close to be finished. I hate keeping cash. I don't believe the inflation number the government told us, because it is getting harder and harder for me to save a loonie . But stock market is the only place I can possibly make my savings grow to fight back inflation.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,939 Posts
Fisher- I don't disagree. but wanted to point out that post #13 was posted in 2010!

There are some who predict that the tsx will have a resurgence and catch up with the S&P. I hope so, but not buying any new equity - just hope what I already have does well
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
7 Posts
Fisher- I don't disagree. but wanted to point out that post #13 was posted in 2010!

There are some who predict that the tsx will have a resurgence and catch up with the S&P. I hope so, but not buying any new equity - just hope what I already have does well
LoL , I guess money is always an issue no matter what years we are in. 11years later, money still a problem for us, no escape.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
20,200 Posts
Same here, every stock looks overpriced, and Covid is still no-where close to be finished. I hate keeping cash.
I don't think it's a good idea to try predicting markets this way. It's pretty much impossible to predict what the future will bring. Just look at the start of this thread, as a case study. In June 2010, even though people said this looked like a bad time to buy, it was in fact a great time to buy.

So much for intuition! Here are the annualized returns starting when this thread began:
  • TSX Index, 8.0%
  • S&P 500 index, 15.4%
  • Bonds (XBB), 3.8%
These are great returns. Everything, including bonds, returned more than cash.

Here's something interesting too. The date this thread was started was such a great time to buy, that stocks didn't ever go negative if you had bought at that point. So much for waiting for lower prices (timing)... just look at this chart of the TSX Composite. Anyone who was certain that lower prices would eventually come, is still waiting 11 years later and never got a lower entry.

21533
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
20,200 Posts
Another way to say this is that, for all we know, today might be the best possible time to buy the stock index or bond index.

Wouldn't you agree, this is possible?
 
1 - 20 of 41 Posts
Top