Canadian Money Forum banner

Will the S&P 500 peak this year, and then be lower for next couple years?

101 - 112 of 112 Posts

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,630 Posts
NASDAQ is down 5-7% from peak. Is this the 5-7% retracement and then upwards that most were expecting? Or a sign of a bubble starting to deflate.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,146 Posts
NASDAQ is down 5-7% from peak. Is this the 5-7% retracement and then upwards that most were expecting? Or a sign of a bubble starting to deflate.
I expect more because I believe that NASDAQ should not end the year above 14,000. This recent move is simply healthy.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,146 Posts
What a crazy intraday for NASDAQ... Drops from 13,500 to 13,000 and now back to 13,500.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,146 Posts
Yawn, so what the market is volitile.
Amazon is flat YTD, but up 50 over the last year.
I'm happy
I also don't care about volatility, I find it funny. Saw my portfolio go down below -4% and end up at -0.82%.

But it was a fun day because a friend of mine texted me at 9:30 saying she's about to through her phone because she was at -13% and her boyfriend was at -20%. And we're talking about the intraday here.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
19,634 Posts
Discussion Starter #107
I also don't care about volatility, I find it funny. Saw my portfolio go down below -4% and end up at -0.82%.
You might find it bothers you more when you have larger amounts invested.

Imagine you had 500K invested all in stocks, and saw it plummet 12% one morning ... a loss of $60,000.

I think that would hurt. Once people invest enough money, they will start to see their portfolio fluctuate more in a week than their entire annual salary.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,146 Posts
Imagine you had 500K invested all in stocks, and saw it plummet 12% one morning ... a loss of $60,000.
I'm a numbers guy, I never look at the numbers in $, only in %. Everything has to be relative when playing with the market.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
5,718 Posts
You might find it bothers you more when you have larger amounts invested.

Imagine you had 500K invested all in stocks, and saw it plummet 12% one morning ... a loss of $60,000.

I think that would hurt. Once people invest enough money, they will start to see their portfolio fluctuate more in a week than their entire annual salary.
Not quite that much (unfortunately) but I've seen some pretty big drops.
I really enjoy the days where I earn more than a weeks salary in a single day. But I know it well enough to see it as nothing more than a silly numbers trick.


Remember 2 of the 10 worst days for the S&P 500 were within the last year.


Not surprisingly 2 of the 10 best days were also last year.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
5,718 Posts
I also don't care about volatility, I find it funny. Saw my portfolio go down below -4% and end up at -0.82%.

But it was a fun day because a friend of mine texted me at 9:30 saying she's about to through her phone because she was at -13% and her boyfriend was at -20%. And we're talking about the intraday here.
Perhaps they should look at their risk tolerance, and not take it out on their phone.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,984 Posts
You might find it bothers you more when you have larger amounts invested.

Imagine you had 500K invested all in stocks, and saw it plummet 12% one morning ... a loss of $60,000.

I think that would hurt. Once people invest enough money, they will start to see their portfolio fluctuate more in a week than their entire annual salary.
This was me in March. It's unnerving. I have a lot more money than 2008. But there was some good bears in 2014 and 2018 as well that caused nearly similar moves, certainly on a % basis, so I believe that prepared me. As well, as soon as I started modelling out what my returns were going to be moving forward, buying stocks like CNQ at $11 and Teck at $10 and GSY at $35, WEF at $0.60, BMO at $63, I became a lot more comfortable.

I think here we are in a strange market. Many stocks are cheap or fair valued, and others are absolute nosebleeds. I'm thinking of reducing exposure over the next few months to get ahead of 'sell in may' and likely higher interest rates and taper tantrums. Maybe I can find a few more good stocks to hedge those risks too.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
19,634 Posts
Discussion Starter #112
Interestingly, the S&P 500 now competes for yield with the (guaranteed safe) 10 year treasury bond.

SPY yield = 1.54%
10 year treasury = 1.46%

Not a huge deal, but there are some investors who chase yield and compare stocks vs the 10 year.
 
101 - 112 of 112 Posts
Top