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I am curious if anyone has considered sports betting as investment option and started a portfolio. In late december a handicapper <LINK REMOVED BY MODERATOR> posted 6 college football bowl game picks based on some players sitting out of for NFL draft and it seemed like a great info. I put $50 on each of the 6 games and on all of them. I went through the <LINK REMOVED BY MODERATOR> If i place 1k in on each game, it would have been nice profit. But is sports betting success sustainable long term? If i decide to bet much bigger instead of $50 per game and gain big profit at the end of the year, do i pay tax just like any other capital gain. Please share whatever you know about this field.
thanks.
 

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I'm a moderator on this forum. I removed the links you provided as I suspect this could be an effort to promote a service, and you're a new user who just appeared.

It's OK to discuss sports betting but please don't post any links.
 

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Its called Gambling not investing and it destroys individuals financials, no I would not sports bet under any circumstances.
It is not really anything different then playing the stock market. It takes a lot of money to keep the stock market well oiled. No more money can be won then is put on the table in fact less as the house wins through fees to play.
 

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There's to much juice removed from a winning bet to overcome the odds...but if you could start a online boutique bookie front...that would be a great investment.
 

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It is not really anything different then playing the stock market.
This can be true in one sense that some people I know will speculate on high risk stocks (or cryptos etc), 'playing stocks like a big gamble at a casino. They might lose 50% overnight on a penny stock and dream of doubling their money overnight. Usually they blow up their account in a short period of time trading the markets. They way these people speculate is like a high stakes gamble. But in general they haven't learned how to properly invest and are managing their life savings poorly.

When 'playing the stock market' if you don't even know the odds of losing your whole investment, why not just blow your money at a casino playing roulette where you at least know the odds of betting on black is close to 50/50? (I do not recommend gambling, I'm just making a logical comparison).


And it might seem like stocks are similar to gambling to those who are used to gambling but haven't learned the fundamentals of investing. But there's some major differences between gambling bets and investing.


With gambling you will typically lay out a bet which you lose 100% of if you're wrong. You can't be patient with your bet for the next 10 years and collect 5% every year in dividends as a part owner in a top quality company. With a good investment you are paid to wait while taking on a reasonable level of risk. Professional money managers and many serious investors have done the education and research to know how to manage the risk they are taking for the return they expect to earn on the investment portfolio. The odds are favorable they will see a return on their investment over the long term, without risking losing 100% of the capital invested.

With a gamble, you are in a best case scenario typically playing a risk to reward of 1:1 on a 'coin toss' of 50/50% odds. Over the long run the average person would breakeven at best.
And usually the casino will put the odds lightly in their favor for a 'house edge' so on average players will lose all their money to the casino in the long run.

Other games of chance are usually some variation of this... ie your odds are 2/3 or 60% chance of winning but you collect $66 for each $100 you stand to lose. Essentially for the average player over the long run your expected value is break-even at best, the same as a 1:1 bet on a 'coin toss'.
 

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I'm a moderator on this forum. I removed the links you provided as I suspect this could be an effort to promote a service, and you're a new user who just appeared.

It's OK to discuss sports betting but please don't post any links.
Sorry, I wasn't aware of the rules. It wasn't my intention promote. I have been doing some research into sports betting and wanted to know if anyone is doing it. I posted about MaxDalury because he was the only capper i know who posted his picks publicly on the google group well ahead of time and people were able to capitalize on it.

But my actual intention is to find out if any active stock traders also do sports betting in the side and how it does.
 

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I used to be in an NFL pool for a small fee ( $50) and follow and post on the RX Forums (gambling forums). First the vig is 10% so you need to win 55% in fact just to break even. I have Excel models to predict the scores and allow for injuries and other factors. Basically the linesmakers are usually pretty accurate w their lines based on the available data. The industry rakes in $65+ B so you can imagine the $ they have to to invest in sophisticated computer simulation modelling and data analysis to allow them to post the most statistically accurate #s possible.

They also strive for parity so there is no advantage to just betting home vs away or dog vs fav, over the long term they are all ~ 50%.

The lines are also adjusted immediately in real time for any events occurring after the opening line is posted ( ie a QB out will drop the line 6 or 7 pts typically ). I was finding week to week there might be only 1 or 2 games out of 16 where there was some value in the line. Usually too, they are quick to adjust if they set a bad opening line which the 'sharp' gamblers usually pounce on right away.

Problem is too even when you are right, you can never predict an injury in game either like losing the starting QB or RB, or an unusual big special teams play or turnover etc. I read somewhere that the amount of $ actually won is so small it is almost negligible.

I would stay away from these multi game bets as well like parlays and teasers. If you have 2 games where you are say 70% certain of the result, the probability of winning both is the product of the probabilities so .7 x .7 or only .49 ( 49%) .
 

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I don't consider sports betting as a form of investment because to me, investments need reasonable expectation of positive returns over time. There is solid reason to believe that stocks and bonds will produce a positive return over long periods. So buying an index fund or a balanced fund containing stocks and bonds will likely give positive returns.

Gambling doesn't come with the same expectation. In these games of chance you can get lucky once in a while but I don't see why you'd expect to make money over the long term.

Same criticism applies to day trading and short term stock speculation. Those day traders can make money sometimes but most of them won't show a profit in the long term.
 

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I don't consider sports betting as a form of investment because to me, investments need reasonable expectation of positive returns over time. There is solid reason to believe that stocks and bonds will produce a positive return over long periods. So buying an index fund or a balanced fund containing stocks and bonds will likely give positive returns.

Gambling doesn't come with the same expectation. In these games of chance you can get lucky once in a while but I don't see why you'd expect to make money over the long term.

Same criticism applies to day trading and short term stock speculation. Those day traders can make money sometimes but most of them won't show a profit in the long term.
I agree, Investing and Gambling are different. ROI (Return of Investment) is important for investing so you will know that you gain profit.
 

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I agree, Investing and Gambling are different. ROI (Return of Investment) is important for investing so you will know that you gain profit.
In gambling of various kinds ROI is actually termed EV or "expected value". Placing numerous bets with sufficient bankroll and positive EV will result in profits. MIT card counting team showed this...poker players make a living using the concept of +EV to ensure profits. Sport betting has too much vig to make any bets +EV as does craps, roulette, slots,lotto 649 etc.
 

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Gambling: You place money on your favorite sports team, and you hope they win.

Investing: You own part of your favorite sports team, and you receive regular dividends and long term growth.

Over time, who will do better financially? The guy watching the game, placing bets, and crossing his fingers? Or the guy who owns the team?
 

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No, for sure, gambling and investing are at opposite sides. Betting is more like having fun, but sometimes it brings really good money. For example, I found a promo code on a website with promo codes for betting https://bet-country.com/dk/bonus/mrgreen and made a free bet on one football game. When I woke up in the morning I was surprised, because I won more than 1000 dollars. That was awesome.
 

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But is sports betting success sustainable long term?
Do not expected to make a profit in the long term. You are expected to lose the cumulative amount of the vig in the long run.

You could keep your bets at $50 for the fun. As for the serious money, maybe invest in stocks, bond, real estate, education, etc.
 

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Investing is not a one shot deal, you can’t buy a gambling unit as an investment. Unless you automatically set up a bet that the patriots will win every game of the season all at one time. Then it’s almost an investment, probably a bad one mind you. Investing is not about one time returns, it’s a long term commitment. puttIng all your winnings into an account would be Investing, the part that makes those deposits is gambling. Gambling, by design, makes you poorer. Investing, done properly, will make you rich.

if you want to gamble, why not try day trading.
 

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Gambling is simply a money shuffle, no new wealth or value is ever created. It's a zero sum game.

Investing is growing wealth by creating value.
I think that's something people in their critique of capitalism miss, the concept that investing to make more.
It isn't investing to make more money, that's the side effect of creating more wealth. When you fund a company to invent a new product, or service, people get access to something they didn't have access to before.
 

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Investors who do sports betting are probably those that buy penny stocks (nothing wrong with that!)

You will always lose sports betting in the long term.
 
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