[Mike59]

The guy is a loon, and refuses to admit any errors in his opinions or his forecasting. He's been bearish on gold since at least $1200, and he proudly bleats on about how people should have listened to him when gold drops a few percent on the day, and because it has corrected from $1900. Would have been impressive if he called the top at $1900 without also calling it at $1800, $1700, $1600, $1500, all the way down to $1200 and below. He also lumps Apple in the overvalued category with NFLX and AMZN. His lack of accountability and understanding of valuation means he will never manage a cent of my money.
.

Sounds like he's all over the map. I read through one of his books from my local library awhile ago and if I recall correctly, the take home message was to bunker down, hold precious metals, buy guns and wait for the end game :eek2:

 

[Belguy]

Heh, it sounds like Garth and I are on the same wave length after all!!:eek2:

 

[londoncalling]

heh, it sounds like garth and i are on the same wave length after all!!:eek2:

lmao!!!!!

 

[Jon_Snow]

I have alot of time for Garth Turner. Do I follow his advice to the letter? No. Does he author one of the most entertaining blogs in Canada? Yes. Garth is a great writer.

 

[Four Pillars]

Garth is a great writer.

Absolutely - I don't agree with a single thing he says, but I really enjoy reading his blog.

 

[Rusty O'Toole]

I've never had any faith in him since I read one of his books, years ago. It was obvious he did not even understand how a mortgage works, yet he was giving advice about real estate!

You would be better off flipping a coin than listening to that guy.

 

[sharbit]

He's a good writer that sells lots of books but his financial knowledge is clearly lacking. Also, though I would never use a broker personally, one attribute I would argue is most important in a broker is experience, which he lacks.

 

[Causalien]

I fact checked some of his statements. Some are wrong some are right. He fudge numbers like those RE pumpers that he blasts.

On his investment advice. He uses one of those techniques where he consistently call for one direction on everything until it is right. But if you followed when he called it. It is usually 2~3 years early. The one time you can make money was on the bank preferred call. His REIT call was at the top so those who followed made no money and lost none so far.

Also I doubt he writes his own blog. Who spend that much time writing a novel everyday?

 

[HaroldCrump]

The one time you can make money was on the bank preferred call. His REIT call was at the top so those who followed made no money and lost none so far.

In other words, his "record" as a forecaster is just as good (and bad) as anyone else.
I recall his "advice" to liquidate all stocks in early 2009 - just when the market was on the cusp of turning around.

And isn't he also the dude who was peddling holding your home mortgage inside your RRSP?

 

[Causalien]

In other words, his "record" as a forecaster is just as good (and bad) as anyone else.
I recall his "advice" to liquidate all stocks in early 2009 - just when the market was on the cusp of turning around.

And isn't he also the dude who was peddling holding your home mortgage inside your RRSP?

Can't comment on that since I have never done the mortgage in RRSP myself

 

[Cal]

He is an entertaining read. Like any other investment guru, take his advise with a grain of salt and formulate your own investment strategy.

 

[none]

I'm going to give this thread a bump.

I've been reading Garth's blog for the last couple months and I fully agree with his RE assessment (although even though I've only been reading it for 2 months I feel like the horse has been beaten to death, buried, re-animated, shot in the chest, the horse has gotten up, double-tap to the head and on and on). Anyway, his writing can be OK (sometimes a bit sloppy but he's is quite prolific and good writing takes time) and I've learned some good stuff.

I do, however, think his investment stuff is a little off. A couple examples:
1) He continually berates people who pay off their mortgage quickly. Although this may not be a financially optimal solution (at least retrospectively) it's hard to say that it's a BAD decision. It's responsible low yield investing as far as I'm concerned. Those doing that should be commended and some suggestions made, not belittled like they're idiots. Maybe I'm an idiot for thinking this.
2) He's made some errors about canadian equities being less tax efficient in RRSP compared to cash accounts (error with confusing pre-tax and after tax values)
3) He's anti-index investing. Again, I think it's hard to say that index investing is a BAD idea - by definition it's not a bad investment and as everyone knows here index investing will beat the vast majority of managed funds and individual investors over the long term.

So now i'm a little torn about this guy. He makes an entertaining broken record but I'm not really convinced I would suggest him as a money manager.

Thoughts?

 

[Jon_Snow]

I don't think he's anti-index.... I'm pretty sure I've seen him mention that owning individual stocks is a bad idea for most folks... he's all about balance - ETF's, REITS, sprinkling of preferreds etc...

Don't take everything he says as gospel, but I have alot time for Garth Turner...

 

[none]

I was surprised too but he makes it pretty clear in this comment section. Excuse the bum.

I don't think Garth demands respect (actually I'm sure he's quite insecure) but when someone starts to so assertively say something I know is incorrect I start to doubt the things that I assume he is correct about (although I think he's correct about housing but to me that's a no-brainer anyway)



http://www.greaterfool.ca/2012/01/26/bad-idea-2/
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Garth, I agree with most of your views, but I would like to know what you think of the couch potato investing theory of holding Index Funds and ETF’s and reorganizing them once a year to save on MER fees?

Indexers will not be happy. Leave the potato on the couch. — Garth
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Indexers will be unhappy. You will learn this. — Garth
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My conservative portfolio beat the market by 11% last year. Indexers were not happy. — Garth
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Do you also fix hard drives and do dental surgery? There is no simple way DIY investors can avoid being cannon fodder. Unless you’re happy with 2%. — Garth
-------------

 

[Robillard]

He has been going on about how interest rates will be going up later this year. Of course, he's entitled to his own predictions. I just don't think it is going to pan out the way he expects, given the weak inflation picture in Canada. I used to think that interest rates needed to go up for the bottom to fall out of the housing market. Now I'm not so sure.

 

[sags]

I do recall times in the past when banks raised mortgage interest rates quite regularly, and the BOC rate hadn't changed.

The general consensus seems to be that as US equity markets rise.........money will flow out of bonds into equities and there will be less money available for mortgage lending.

Supply and demand.

On the other hand, if people stop buying homes.........the demand for mortgages would fall.

Who really knows?

The only thing certain is that today's rates are at historic lows and far below the long term average.

Maybe that is the new normal.............maybe not.

I enjoy Turner's blog..........but I do think he overstates the downside to paying down a mortgage.

Who knows what the interest rates will be in the future and the less owed is better.

Also, how many regular folks are the least interested in stocks or portfolios?

The simple way for them is to pay down the mortgage. No paperwork, no taxes, no fuss or muss.

 

[andrewf]

Garth is a story teller and is light on facts and sober analysis.

Garth also is in the financial advisory business. He makes more money by convincing rubes they need his advice and that they can't do it on their own.

 

[none]

I understand that but I think he'd get the business for better or worse anyway.

Then again, the canadiancouchpotato is in a similar boat. $3000 plus 0.5% a year is ridiculous.

 

[RBull]

Like some others on here I enjoy reading Garth for his entertaining style. Much of the content on his blog is extremely redundant as he bleats incessantly about RE declines etc. I've also read one of his books- Money Road. Some reasonable info and some off base- take if for what it's worth given the context that he is selling something and he's a self proclaimed expert.

Like most Soothsayers he's quick to point out any inkling of being accurate and conveniently ignores when he isn't or is long overdue from his adamant predictions.

 

[Ihatetaxes]

Garth has been spinning the same RE doom and gloom story for years and its sort of finally happening (especially in his own personally version of hell, Vancouver). I dont know how he doesn't kill himself from the boredom of writing the same three or four blog entries over and over and over again. The cute pictures help and the morons in the comments section dying to be firrrrrrrrrrrrst!!!!!! every day need to jump off a bridge