Canadian Money Forum banner

81 - 95 of 95 Posts

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,232 Posts
People trying to push or endorse industries will always have forecasts like that
They were just citing industry projections. Market research groups have similar estimates.

 

·
Registered
Joined
·
449 Posts
Why are all you folks gambling when you could have been investing in a near certainty known as oil and gas circa Q2 to Q4 last year? So many are adamant to avoid O&G because it is volatile, but do you really not see how buying BTE at $50 circa 2014 is not the same as buying $0.27 to $0.60 last year. Or PEY $$35 vs $1-$2 last year. Or OVV $100 vs $3 to $5, or even SU $60 vs $15. People who will "invest" in Bitcoin at tens of thousands of dollars won't invest in the base of the economic pyramid at 75 to 98% discount from 2014 prices? Human nature is fascinating.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,146 Posts
Why are all you folks gambling when you could have been investing in a near certainty known as oil and gas circa Q2 to Q4 last year? So many are adamant to avoid O&G because it is volatile, but do you really not see how buying BTE at $50 circa 2014 is not the same as buying $0.27 to $0.60 last year. Or PEY $$35 vs $1-$2 last year. Or OVV $100 vs $3 to $5, or even SU $60 vs $15. People who will "invest" in Bitcoin at tens of thousands of dollars won't invest in the base of the economic pyramid at 75 to 98% discount from 2014 prices? Human nature is fascinating.
I did exactly this. I'm no fan of O&G related stocks, but I bought OVV and SCL. More than tripled my money on those. Now 20% of my portfolio.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,146 Posts
Hive has done very well in my TFSA. I chose it over some of the more popular US miners because electricity is cheaper in Canada. I don't like crypto mining or BTC I think more efficient and advanced blockchains should make it irrelevant but it seems to be all that most people can handle for now.

Voyager and Galaxy have also done well. Unfortunate that Galaxy is only 3rd to get an ETF approved instead of first and Voyager has been a victim of its own success by getting bombarded with new signups. The blockchain stocks in the US seem more hyped up so I'm unclear why these 2 are traded on TSX
I recall looking at HUT and HIVE back in April 2020. I wanted to take a position in one of them or even both of them, but I wasn't confident enough because I'm a beginner. Certainly my biggest opportunity losses. They've 10x to 20x. These kinds of gains are game-changers and potentially life-changers.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,348 Posts
Why are all you folks gambling when you could have been investing in a near certainty known as oil and gas circa Q2 to Q4 last year? So many are adamant to avoid O&G because it is volatile, but do you really not see how buying BTE at $50 circa 2014 is not the same as buying $0.27 to $0.60 last year. Or PEY $$35 vs $1-$2 last year. Or OVV $100 vs $3 to $5, or even SU $60 vs $15. People who will "invest" in Bitcoin at tens of thousands of dollars won't invest in the base of the economic pyramid at 75 to 98% discount from 2014 prices? Human nature is fascinating.
Did this as well. I have positions in SU, ERF, ENB, MEG, and TVE. I don't consider these gambling, though. But they are doing well.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
5,716 Posts
I recall looking at HUT and HIVE back in April 2020. I wanted to take a position in one of them or even both of them, but I wasn't confident enough because I'm a beginner. Certainly my biggest opportunity losses. They've 10x to 20x. These kinds of gains are game-changers and potentially life-changers.
Don't sweat it, I've missed out on a LOT of huge gains, I considered the Google IPO, and it took me years to understand Amazon, or realize the MSFT reorientation.
Better to miss out on some gains, than lose it all in a bad investment.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
19,634 Posts
Discussion Starter #87
Why are all you folks gambling when you could have been investing in a near certainty known as oil and gas circa Q2 to Q4 last year?
That's very speculative trading as well. Trying to catch a falling knife, etc.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,630 Posts
That's very speculative trading as well. Trying to catch a falling knife, etc.
I wouldn't call it speculative like buying in to bitcoin dealers that make $5mil revenue a year, lose twice that much, but somehow have a market cap of 3.5Bil.
Anyone with an understanding of the energy market and the capital required to maintain production, the lead time it takes said capital to have an effect, etc, could predict what has happened with the O&G stock prices.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
151 Posts
Why are all you folks gambling when you could have been investing in a near certainty known as oil and gas circa Q2 to Q4 last year? So many are adamant to avoid O&G because it is volatile, but do you really not see how buying BTE at $50 circa 2014 is not the same as buying $0.27 to $0.60 last year. Or PEY $$35 vs $1-$2 last year. Or OVV $100 vs $3 to $5, or even SU $60 vs $15. People who will "invest" in Bitcoin at tens of thousands of dollars won't invest in the base of the economic pyramid at 75 to 98% discount from 2014 prices? Human nature is fascinating.
This is an interesting point you bring up. Now I am no investing pro but I did want to ask something regarding this. There is a huge move to go toward green energy. Oil and gas are not considered that. I do know that the demand of oil and gas will not go away any time soon but would it be a bad idea to hold oil and gas companies for the long term? I ask because eventually the oil and gas companies will get pinched by this. I am not sure if any (O&G) energy companies have started getting into renewable energy but wont these companies eventually see a further stock decline in the future?
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
19,634 Posts
Discussion Starter #90
Anyone with an understanding of the energy market and the capital required to maintain production, the lead time it takes said capital to have an effect, etc, could predict what has happened with the O&G stock prices.
Are you saying it was obvious, back in March/April, that March was the low in energy stocks? And it was obvious that they would go up?
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,630 Posts
Are you saying it was obvious, back in March/April, that March was the low in energy stocks? And it was obvious that they would go up?
Pretty much, and I invested as such. And everyone who's worked in the industry on here also did the same. It's a pretty predictable pattern.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
19,634 Posts
Discussion Starter #92
Pretty much, and I invested as such. And everyone who's worked in the industry on here also did the same. It's a pretty predictable pattern.
If it's obvious, kind of makes you wonder why investors would be willing to sell off so broadly. Most days in March had over 60 million shares of XLE traded, that's about $2 billion traded per day. Maybe around $30 billion in trades made through March on XLE.

That's not small money. That's big stuff, traded by institutions and hedge funds, and I'm sure there were many who have expertise in the field.

Many people placing those trades work in O&G too. There are also hedge funds with industry insiders working at them.

I do not think it was as "obvious" as you seem to think. And if you do think it was obvious/assured, then it's even more dangerous because you may have been oblivious to other downside risks.
 

·
Super Moderator
Joined
·
3,713 Posts
Are you saying it was obvious, back in March/April, that March was the low in energy stocks? And it was obvious that they would go up?
Wasn't just energy stocks, many sectors dropped. The only questions at the time were, where is the bottom and how long for the recovery. Also, in order to make significant gains one doesn't need the exact bottom.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
449 Posts
That's very speculative trading as well. Trying to catch a falling knife, etc.
I see it as the highest expected value situation of my 40 years in investing. I get the falling knife though. I'll likely have more losing transactions than winners until I am up over 100% or 200%. If I get there of course. Broke through break even 2 or 3 weeks ago. Even BTE is moving up, my last position in a loss on ACB.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,232 Posts
The oil stocks can be decent investments at times due to recessions when demand and prices are at low pts and you can make some $ on the cyclical rally. Not great return investments for the long run IMO but ok if you just want them for income. I just bought some Altagas which was a good value and Methanex last year that has done really well. Hopefully good for a 1 or maybe 2 yr hold.
 
81 - 95 of 95 Posts
Top