[stretchermonkey]

Whilst reading another tepid forecast from Robert Peston, the BBC's business correspondent, (markets might continue their slow recovery, on the other hand the recovery is built on sand and it might all go wrong) etc. in the comments section was a link to this

http://kunstler.com/blog/2009/12/forecast-2010.html

At least he isnt picking out splinters from fence sitting like the other so called experts who feel the need to write horoscopes but dont want to be caught out at the end of the year having got it completely wrong.

I havent come across this fella before so I wondered if he had popped up on anyone else's radar, and what you all think?


(no I don't know the author or have any connection to him)

 

[dogcom]

I don't know if the US and so on will face all these problems in 2010, but the fact is the potential is there for the worst to happen. I think the number 1 problem will be the ability to finance all the debt the US needs and still keep rates low on the long side. I think people are to confident that the stock market will continue to recover and will be the best place to be.

 

[mogul777]

I didn't read the whole blog "article", but enough to get a good idea. While, I agree with some of his points like the whole spend your way out of debt delusion, other points are overblown or oversimplified. As any bear or bull he is simply reporting what supports his prediction. Make a case, writing 101. Peak oil, Dow 4000, yada yada yada... all hogwash. The market is a leading indicator. Three of the most important indicatators say the recovery continues. Be a chicken little at your own peril.

 

[dogcom]

I agree with mogul the hockey stick points up but you need to have your hand on the door handle before the car goes over the cliff.

 

[HaroldCrump]

Peak oil, Dow 4000, yada yada yada... all hogwash. The market is a leading indicator. Three of the most important indicatators say the recovery continues. Be a chicken little at your own peril.

I agree. The inexorable march of Western capitalism continues.
Unless there is an epoch-making revolution or war like the Russian revolution or WW-III, not much's gonna change.

 

[mogul777]

Perhaps, Dog, but then when do you climb back in? After the best days have waved goodbye.

I don't need to, China and the rest have there hands in position. Not much you or I can do about the greater scheme of things.

Harold, true enough. The impressive thing is that they might just pull off the spend your way out of debt (worry about your grandkids future later) scheme. When you have an interconnected world working in tandem with conflicted but mutual goals. We (China et al. make crap) you (US et al.) buy crap round and round the world goes. Once China and company becomes the next US the US becomes disposable, like Europe of today... or perhaps the old USofA.