Canadian Money Forum banner
161 - 180 of 211 Posts

·
Registered
Joined
·
21,547 Posts
Discussion Starter · #161 ·
Did you go Harvard?
You're putting way too much emphasis on all these things. Sadly this is something that tricks many people (including you apparently)... the reality is, nobody can predict the markets, even if they have a PhD from Harvard.

Anyone who pretends they can is a fool, and should be exposed as that.

Besides, economics (and market finance) fields are quite new, and pseudo scientific to begin with. This field is full of people who apply flaky pseudo science and pretend they know what's going on. Markets cannot be precisely modelled. They are full of uncertainty because they are based on human behaviours, emotions, and culture.

If someone confidently says they know what the market is going to do in the coming years, and says it's backed by scientific analysis, they are a fool.

Roubini is a fool and a clown. As @Jimmy pointed out, this guy has been frequently wrong. And that's the case for all of these characters who wave their PhDs around to try convincing people that they know how to outsmart markets.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
788 Posts
Will Afghanistan retreat have the similar effect to Vietnam on the stock market?
The USA dollar stands on American might and investors conference in the US ability to support and defend their allies.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
21,547 Posts
Discussion Starter · #163 ·
Will Afghanistan retreat have the similar effect to Vietnam on the stock market?
The USA dollar stands on American might and investors conference in the US ability to support and defend their allies.
An interesting question. But it was obvious that Iraq and Afghanistan were US failures a long time ago.

Iraq turned into an unstable state of chaos, and Afghanistan was always tenuous. So I don't think there is any surprise here, or anything new.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
8,758 Posts
An interesting question. But it was obvious that Iraq and Afghanistan were US failures a long time ago.

Iraq turned into an unstable state of chaos, and Afghanistan was always tenuous. So I don't think there is any surprise here, or anything new.
I think people underestimate how much work it is to build a liberal western state.

Particularly those who think destroying our system here will easily be replaced with something better.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
788 Posts
I think people underestimate how much work it is to build a liberal western state.

Particularly those who think destroying our system here will easily be replaced with something better.
Apparently 38 millions of Afghans don’t think “western liberal“ is better for them. Thus overwhelming support of Taliban.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
175 Posts
Sold almost all of my US stocks the other day, did Norbert's gambit, and got a double whammy with a nice return on my USD conversion. About half of my portfolio is still invested on the TSX, and I'm now just sitting on this cash out from my US stuff waiting for the right opportunity.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
245 Posts
Sold almost all of my US stocks the other day, did Norbert's gambit, and got a double whammy with a nice return on my USD conversion. About half of my portfolio is still invested on the TSX, and I'm now just sitting on this cash out from my US stuff waiting for the right opportunity.
And what prompted that move? Do you believe the US economy will fail or something?
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
175 Posts
And what prompted that move? Do you believe the US economy will fail or something?
I can't predict what will happen. I was happy with the gains I had on my US investments, I'm nervous about the way things are going in several parts of the US, and I'm more comfortable right now just locking in my gains, and sitting on cash for a bit.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
788 Posts
If a (multi) decade long bear market happens (and stock markets all over the world proved, that such things do happen), this requires to keep investing, even though you will have to take continuously losses over a very long time.

Do you think average retail investors have the patience and physiological strength to takes losses over such a long time, watching losing money month over month and stil keep investing or is this just a strategy which sounds good in theory but mostly doesn't work in practice?
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
169 Posts
I can't predict what will happen. I was happy with the gains I had on my US investments, I'm nervous about the way things are going in several parts of the US, and I'm more comfortable right now just locking in my gains, and sitting on cash for a bit.
Obviously do whatever makes you comfortable.

I wasn't invested during 2008 crash. When that recovered in 2012, we had 8 bull market years. I'm sure many people, many times said they're worried that markets will fall but they didn't - and even when they did, no one predicted it's because of a global pandemic. If covid never happen, we would still be in a bull market.

So even though I'm new at investing at all time highs (it does suck paying 20% more than I did before) I feel like this bull market can last for another 10+ years. I'll keep investing.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
21,547 Posts
Discussion Starter · #171 ·
Regarding selling or avoiding the US due to the insane run in stocks...

This is why I like my diversified portfolio of stocks + bonds + gold, without any large concentration in a single asset class.

If someone is a heavy equity investor, then they are often nervous about the direction of stocks, worry about them being too high, etc. That anxiety is justified.

But a more diversified portfolio is not just dependent on a single stock market. US stocks definitely look expensive, but trading in and out of stocks also tends to be a losing game. If you look at something like Mawer Balanced Fund, they are only 20% US stocks, which is a very reasonable weight in an overall portfolio. So there is no particular reason to get anxious about US stocks, because the remaining 80% is invested in other stuff.

Similarly, I have 15% in the S&P 500 and I don't feel stress about an over-extended US market because 85% of my money is invested in other stuff.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
5,316 Posts
Will Afghanistan retreat have the similar effect to Vietnam on the stock market?
The USA dollar stands on American might and investors conference in the US ability to support and defend their allies.
USA's goal to coerce the few remaining countries into submission backfired

 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,969 Posts
Look at this! NASDAQ is touching 15,000.

Almost doubled in 2 years, almost tripled in 5 years.

Slope Font Software Screenshot Electronic device
Slope Font Screenshot Terrestrial plant Electronic device
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
21,547 Posts
Discussion Starter · #175 ·
My portfolio hit a new all time high on Friday. During the covid crash of 2020, I would have never guessed that this is where we'd end up. Here is the % change (on a CAD basis) of things since April 1, 2020

+61% ... TSX Composite (XIC)
+59% ... S&P 500 (ZSP)
+53% ... MSCI all country (XAW)
+6% ... Bonds (XBB)

+34% in a 60/40 balanced fund (XBAL) and the XBAL return is now 9.9% annualized over the last 3 years. Just ludicrous.

Congrats to all those who invested in "boring old balanced funds"
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
5,316 Posts
Everything goes up when you debase your unit of measurement

It's like shrinking the length of a meter just to make it appear the football field got longer when it actually got shorter

You need to measure with a finite unit
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
21,547 Posts
Discussion Starter · #177 ·
Everything goes up when you debase your unit of measurement
You're right in general, but the increase in asset prices seen recently is not just an effect from currency depreciation.

The proof of this is in the cost of goods & services. While a basket of investments has performed at 10% CAGR over 3 years, the cost of goods and services is increasing at maybe (if we're being pessimistic) something like 4%. More realistically closer to 3%.

The reality is that diversified investors continue to beat inflation. And generally will, over the long term.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
5,316 Posts
The reality is that diversified investors continue to beat inflation. And generally will, over the long term.
Yes who knew that debasing the fiat currency would reward the wealthy. It all comes down to luck, right?

As long as the wealthy don't spend too much on peasant consumer goods & services the CPI should be an accurate measurement
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
38 Posts
i think cost of basic consumer goods and services should be decreasing on a secular basis on the strength of technological advances and productivity gains. the fact that those costs increase at all seems like a problem to me.
 
161 - 180 of 211 Posts
Top