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That guy is always predicting doom and gloom He finally got it right 1 year.

As far as inflation , forecasts are in the 2% range. The CBs will do what they always do w the debt. just print $ and inflate it away.
 

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Discussion Starter · #142 ·
With the poor track record of all these clowns who make forecasts, I can't believe anyone listens to them.

Nobody has any clue what's going to happen in markets. Stocks, bonds, interest rates, or inflation... nobody has any idea.

That's why I hold a passive stock & bond portfolio and tune out all the predictions and forecasts. And it makes no difference if once in a while, some clown in the media gets a prediction right. Anyone can get that success rate by accident.
 

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Roubini speaks English, Persian, Italian, Hebrew, and conversational French.

How many languages do you speak?

attended the local Jewish school and then the Bocconi University, earning a B.A., summa cum laude, in economics. He received his Ph.D. in international economics from Harvard University in 1988.

Did you go Harvard?

Roubini combined academic research with policy making by teaching at Yale and then in New York, while also being employed at the International Monetary Fund, the Federal Reserve, World Bank, and Bank of Israel. Currently, he is a professor at the Stern School of Business at New York University.



2020
On Feb. 17 he warned of financial vulnerabilities that "could trigger severe economic, financial, political, and geopolitical disturbances unlike anything since the 2008 crisis."[36][37] Two days later, the market peaked prior to what would become the 2020 stock market crash. Following a relatively minor decrease, on the 24th Roubini warned that the markets were still too complacent about coronavirus, predicting a government response to the followed by positive market reaction, which would then fizzle.

He doesn’t strike me as a clown.
 

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Discussion Starter · #144 ·
He doesn’t strike me as a clown.
He's a clown because he pretends he can forecast and predict markets, when he clearly cannot. He has a poor track record in forecasting and fortune telling.

He can have observations and musings, fine. But he is not capable of forecasting market directions.
 

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When you are making claims, it’s best to support them with facts.
"After the crisis, Mr. Roubini stuck with his bearish views, failing to foresee the economic rebound and powerful stock market rally that followed. In August 2011, he told The Wall Street Journal that the risk of a global recession was at least 50%. By 2014, he had turned more bullish. "

"
Eric Tyson, a former financial adviser and author of several financial books in the Dummies series, has made a hobby out of critiquing Mr. Roubini’s financial predictions.
On Mr. Roubini’s January 2009 warning that oil would stay below $40 a barrel for the entire year, Mr. Tyson pointed out that it climbed to $80 a barrel 10 months later.
He cited a March 2009 call by Mr. Roubini that the S&P 500 would fall below 600. The index gained 65% over the next nine months.
According to Mr. Tyson, after predicting recessions every year from 2004 through 2008, Mr. Roubini “was finally right in 2008.”



Not sure why you are fluffing for him but he is a notorious bear . Every year he predicts a downturn. Bound to be right once in awhile
 

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When you are making claims, it’s best to support them with facts.
This is game people play, a lot of people make claims, then after the event happens, they go back and pick those who were right, as if they have special knowledge.

Also I warned that massive government handouts and money printing would result in inflation. Paying people to not work, will also kill economic growth.

As far as other predictions,
"He laid out a bleak sequence of events: homeowners defaulting on mortgages, trillions of dollars of mortgage-backed securities unraveling worldwide and the global financial system shuddering to a halt."
Everyone with a clue predicted that. The US set up a system, where the government encouraged people to buy houses they couldn't afford, and banks to lend to them. The systematic effect was a bit more, but we all know that when you take a bad idea, and push it along letting it get bigger and bigger, the eventual reckoning will get larger.

We're doing this in Canada now with our Real estate bubble.
 

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Federal Reserve starts US$500bn overnight liquidity window as Powell Bubble rages
The Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday announced the establishment of two standing repurchase agreement (repo) facilities—a domestic standing repo facility (SRF) and a repo facility for foreign and international monetary authorities (FIMA repo facility),” the Federal Reserve said in a statement.

“These facilities will serve as backstops in money markets to support the effective implementation of monetary policy and smooth market functioning.

“Under the SRF, the Federal Reserve will conduct daily overnight repo operations against Treasury securities, agency debt securities, and agency mortgage-backed securities, with a maximum operation size of $500 billion.
Global commodity prices have risen sharply under Fed Chairman Jerome Powell as liquidity was injected in stimulus despite a sharp recovery in domestic credit.

He has suggested there is no link between money supply and inflation, an opinion put forward by others after the collapse of the housing and commodity bubble fired by the Fed up to 2008. Classical economists have suggested that Powell was ‘delusional’.

 

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The central bank currently is buying at least $120 billion a month in bonds, with at least $80 billion going to Treasurys and another $40 billion floor on mortgage-backed securities. Critics say the Fed’s mortgage purchases are helping stoke another housing bubble, with prices at record levels even though sales have tailed off amid tightening supply.
 

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Other than the valuation issue and the potential bubble, aren't we just scared due to recency bias?

Many experienced investors have seen two of the worst crashes ever. The Dot Com and the Financial Crisis. Then otherwise there's only the Oil Embargo which was comparable. And then obviously there's the Great Depression which happened during World Wars.

Over the past century, two of the three worst crashes ever (other than the Great Depression) occurred during the same decade. Starting to invest in 2000 was definitely not a fun game.

Look at this graph. What stands out? The Great Depression and the 2000+2008 crashes.

21968
 

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Discussion Starter · #155 ·
Look at this graph. What stands out? The Great Depression and the 2000+2008 crashes.
That's just the US. Historically speaking there have been severe bear markets in many countries.

Japan for example. But also many bad years in France, Italy and several other European countries.
 

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That's just the US. Historically speaking there have been severe bear markets in many countries.

Japan for example. But also many bad years in France, Italy and several other European countries.
We're talking about the ATH of the US and Canadian market in this thread, not?

Where do most Canadians put their money? In US and Canadian stocks.

Canada is correlated with US.


And anyways what were the worst crashes of the Global ex-US aggregate? 2000 & 2008
 

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Bets are open. Will BTC & ETH reach new ATH?
 

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No bets? Make a bet before the new ATH is reached, haha.

Have a nice FOMO.
 

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Bets are open. Will BTC & ETH reach new ATH?
Given insane monetary policies and humans being humans I'm watching for the blow off top

Maybe late 2021 for BTC then early 2022 for ETH similar to the 2017-2018 blow off. ADA should settle down with much more of the market share imo. Assuming smart contracts launch smoothly.

All the dog coins go to heaven
 

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Seems like the Yield Curve Model has always been a good recession predictor.

And it's saying we're now in the safe zone after this flash recession. Doesn't mean we won't have a correction though. I believe a correction would be healthy.

One thing to note though is that there was a recession after each peak in the recession probability curve and we've just had that peak in 2019 and maybe the flash recession in 2020 wasn't enough. Look at 2008, the recession came a bit late after the peak.

22007


You can also calculate a recession probability, which has worked out pretty well so far.
22008



There are other valuation models on this website, but you'll note that only the Yield Curve Model has been the best predictor of recessions.

 
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