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Does anyone remember 1999- early 2000's when holdings slumped for a quite a while? That is the other side of all time highs. So learn to live and invest within your means in either scenario. And stay in balance.
 

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Discussion Starter · #104 ·
Well that's a sharper drop than I was expecting.

Stocks really ran up pretty fast, so any correction at this point could be painful. Even if they fell down to the 200 day moving average (very plausible), the bull market could still be intact.

The TSX could fall another 7% and S&P 500 could fall another 8%, while still remaining in an uptrend.
 

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Well that's a sharper drop than I was expecting.

Stocks really ran up pretty fast, so any correction at this point could be painful. Even if they fell down to the 200 day moving average (very plausible), the bull market could still be intact.

The TSX could fall another 7% and S&P 500 could fall another 8%, while still remaining in an uptrend.
Yeah, bit surprising, but a good time to buy!
 

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Discussion Starter · #107 ·
Escalator up, elevator down. One shouldn't be too surprised, this is really typical. People/institutions/bots are sometimes just looking for excuses to sell. Everyone needs their day in the sun.
It could also be the start of a major reversal. The UK is struggling to keep their economy open, and is probably going to be forced to shut down again with rising COVID hospitalizations. The same could happen to the US within the next few months, so maybe stocks are reacting to this.

This could even be the market reacting to less liquidity, since the Federal Reserve is now shrinking its corporate debt market support. This is one way in which the Fed is tightening... and stocks are mainly driven by Fed liquidity.

So who knows. But it could be happening for many logical reasons, or not. That's what makes stocks so fun :)
 

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The UK example is very interesting and could be Canada and the US in a few months. But there is a major difference and that is wide availability of vaccines. And somewhere between 97-99% of people in hospitals are unvaccinated. Canada has several million doses in surplus now, and that was before 7.7 million show up this week. It's a different show, in the developed world especially, with the US exporting vaccines and Europe hitting that point in a matter of weeks as well. This is rapidly becoming a pandemic of the unvaccinated, as Fauci described it.
 

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So now 2-3% moves are a trend? Seriously?
I agree. All the indices are up compared to a month ago and now we're panicking on a 2% downward move in 2 days?

I'm not seeing a trend, but I am certainly expecting a correction at some point. I'm actually relieved to see the markets going slightly down. I've been expecting S&P 500 below 4,000 and I keep believing NASDAQ over 14,000 is totally unsustainable. It should be in the low 13,000.

I'm actually hoping the market to go down because I should have some decent money to buy stocks in early fall.

First time my 16-month-old newbie playground portfolio is below the 50% XIRR. (EDIT: And it's already back above 50% XIRR)
 

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Discussion Starter · #111 ·
I agree. All the indices are up compared to a month ago and now we're panicking on a 2% downward move in 2 days?
There is always the possibility that one trend is ending and another is starting. These things are impossible to know in real time. You only know it well after the fact.

I'm actually hoping the market to go down because I should have some decent money to buy stocks in early fall.
What if it enters a bear market, and keeps going down for years? Always a possibility. One never knows.
 

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The UK example is very interesting and could be Canada and the US in a few months. But there is a major difference and that is wide availability of vaccines. And somewhere between 97-99% of people in hospitals are unvaccinated. Canada has several million doses in surplus now, and that was before 7.7 million show up this week. It's a different show, in the developed world especially, with the US exporting vaccines and Europe hitting that point in a matter of weeks as well. This is rapidly becoming a pandemic of the unvaccinated, as Fauci described it.
Israel got their vaccine in January February. Canada and the USA few months after.
We do not know exactly to what degree the vaccine helps, but it is significantly less,” Bennett said.

At the moment, around 60% of the patients in serious conditions have been vaccinated. Moreover, according to Hebrew University researchers who advise the government, around 90% of newly infected people over the age of 50 are fully vaccinated.

The “percent of cases that turn critically ill is now 1.6%, compared to 4% at a similar stage in the third wave when there were no vaccines,” Prof. Eran Segal, a computational biologist at the Weizmann Institute of Science who advises the coronavirus cabinet, tweeted on Friday.
 

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Israel got their vaccine in January February. Canada and the USA few months after.
We do not know exactly to what degree the vaccine helps, but it is significantly less,” Bennett said.

At the moment, around 60% of the patients in serious conditions have been vaccinated. Moreover, according to Hebrew University researchers who advise the government, around 90% of newly infected people over the age of 50 are fully vaccinated.

The “percent of cases that turn critically ill is now 1.6%, compared to 4% at a similar stage in the third wave when there were no vaccines,” Prof. Eran Segal, a computational biologist at the Weizmann Institute of Science who advises the coronavirus cabinet, tweeted on Friday.
Israel has a huge unvaccinated population of young people unique to developed countries, most of whom are ineligible for the vaccine, some of whom are catching COVID delta and then are spreading it to both unvaccinated and vaccinated people, who sometimes have other pre-existing conditions and may end up in the hospital (in all likelihood would be at high risk of death if they weren't vaccinated). In the US, Canada, and Europe, with larger numbers of unvaccinated adults who are spreading COVID amongs themselves, numbers of hospitalized people with COVID who are vaccinated are 3% or less - the evidence of vaccine effectiveness is overwhelming. But the unvaccinated spreaders are inevitably spreading it to vaccinated people, unfortunately. A pandemic of the unvaccinated still because the vaccines are so effective. Israel is seeing practically no deaths because of their high rates of Pfizer vaccinations, a trend in the UK as well that deaths are a fraction of what they were just months ago.

The new waves are not going to be like any of the previous ones and without hospitals being overwhelmed, there is not going to be political will to shutdown anything.
 

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It could also be the start of a major reversal.
You can say that about any time the price changes by a fraction of a cent.
Realistically I think 10-30% swings are a normal part of the stock market and nothing to get worked up about.

I think a 2-3% swing is less interesting than the latest clearance sale.
 

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New high ? It is on paper only if you do not sell.

Well, sold a few to replenish my cash reserve for next couple of years. Now all set to watch the roller coaster market on the side line until 2024.

In the mean time, I am still playing a bit of short term 'hit and run' fun with my dividend when I am bored.

D***, miss my favourite BB today this time !
 

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Historically corrections more often happened in fall, never during summer time. Wait for it.
Yeah, single day changes are in March/October.

But those are "changes", both positive and negative.

Make your plan, stick to your plan.
Known that an equity portfolio will likely have 20-30% swings and significant periods of no or low growth, over any non-trivial period.
 
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