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new market highs today. I am not saying it isn't expensive, to sell, to buy, or whatever
Will the sp 500 bubble burst at 5000,6000 or 7000 and how long will it take to get back there? This is the question. It might go to 7000 then burst to 4000 and take another 15 years to reach 7000 again.
Will be current investors thrilled about that, would they stick to the plan and keep buying? I doubt that, people‘s psychology tells me otherwise. Everyone wants to throw money in when it’s growing, but hardly anyone will buy depreciating assets.
 

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We're in a situation of market timing because this is a bubble. Sure, the bubble can continue inflating, but how many bag holders back in 2000?
 
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I honestly am shocked that the S&P 500 is hitting new all time highs near the end of the year. Shows how bad I would be at market timing.
I never thought the drops we've had during December would rebound.
 

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From vanguard‘s point of view.

Specifically, we are projecting the lowest 10-year annualized returns for global equities since the early 2000s. We expect the lowest ones in the U.S. (2.3%–4.3% per year), with more attractive expected returns for non-U.S. developed markets (5.3%–7.3%) and, to a lesser degree, emerging markets (4.2%–6.2%). The outlook for the global equity risk premium is still positive but lower than we expected last year, with total returns expected in the range of 2 to 4 percentage points over bond returns.
 

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From vanguard‘s point of view.

Specifically, we are projecting the lowest 10-year annualized returns for global equities since the early 2000s. We expect the lowest ones in the U.S. (2.3%–4.3% per year), with more attractive expected returns for non-U.S. developed markets (5.3%–7.3%) and, to a lesser degree, emerging markets (4.2%–6.2%). The outlook for the global equity risk premium is still positive but lower than we expected last year, with total returns expected in the range of 2 to 4 percentage points over bond returns.
Before you accept Vanguard's, or anyone else's, ability to predict the future (it's hard), have you checked the track record?

How did their 2021 projection pan out against what actually happened?

Better still since you are referencing Vanguard's 10-year projection, how did their 2011 10-year projection track against the reality of what has happened? Does that give you confidence in their 2022 projection?
 

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Most talking heads are predicting pullbacks...Rosenberg is sure -30% is the ticket....most investors I talk to are expecting a down year. Surely this is the year for financial Armageddon as this bull market is closing in on 2 years old already!

Personally I don't much care but anyone under 50 should rejoice.
 

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Surely this is the year for financial Armageddon as this bull market is closing in on 2 years old already!
Nancy Pelosi is loading up with millions in GOOG, DIS, RBLX, MU options

What does she know? Lockdown 2.0? More easy money?

The proverbial sky is falling and she's betting on youtube, cartoons and video games
 

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Nancy Pelosi is loading up with millions in GOOG, DIS, RBLX, MU options

What does she know? Lockdown 2.0? More easy money?

The proverbial sky is falling and she's betting on youtube, cartoons and video games
Be better if she was buying companies that will benefit from infrastructure spending as at least the US tax payers would get a road, a school or a hospital. Like most gifts people would prefer cash. :p
 

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When I hear“efficient market”, I say BS. Market is a one big scam.

IN FEBRUARY , Michigan-based entrepreneur Robert Simpson decided to see what would happen if he bought the entire stock of one company. Using a single broker, within a couple of days Simpson had paid a little over $5,000 for 1,285,050 shares in OTC bulletin board property-development company Global Links. According to Simpson, these shares were delivered into his account shortly afterwards. Yet the following day 37,044,500 Global Links shares were traded on the bulletin board. The next day, 22,471,000 shares were traded. On neither day had Simpson traded a single Global Link share, he insists.

And events surrounding Simpson's investments became yet more confusing. Global Links had only ever issued 1,158,064 shares. Simpson had managed to acquire 126,986 shares that did not exist. How he had managed to be sold more shares than were in issuance is exactly the question Simpson hoped his foray would raise.

Simpson is CEO of OTC bulletin board company Zann Corp, a provider of advanced technology products for niche markets, and has experienced an inexplicable excess shares situation over the past two-and-a-half years. Since November 2003, Zann's stock price has plummeted over 98%. This, Simpson claims, makes no sense since his company has performed relatively well. The reason for this extreme underperformance, Simpson believes, is that his company has been subject to severe naked short selling – where stocks are short sold without having been borrowed before the time of settlement, if at all.

Law suits pending


I would like to hear some explanations of the situation.
 

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Nancy Pelosi is loading up with millions in GOOG, DIS, RBLX, MU options

What does she know? Lockdown 2.0? More easy money?

The proverbial sky is falling and she's betting on youtube, cartoons and video games
Public officials running side hustles as prop traders slinging millions in stocks and YOLO calls while making policy that impacts markets -- and noone really caring (although we did have a couple of fed officials quietly resign over the summer) -- is one of my low key crazy stories of 2021.
 

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In Turkey when you borrow Turkish Lira you have to sign and promise you won't use it to buy crypto.

Turkish Lira is collapsing and crypto adoption is booming in Turkey. Erdogan is telling the Turks that everything is under control and volatility is just temporary and transitory. He is urging the citizens to keep their savings in Turkish Lira. I wonder if their GICs rates are increasing thanks to this inflation like beav says will happen

These Turks should learn from sags how to manage inflation by shopping on black friday and goodwill so that it becomes deflation.
 

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Before you accept Vanguard's, or anyone else's, ability to predict the future (it's hard), have you checked the track record?

How did their 2021 projection pan out against what actually happened?

Better still since you are referencing Vanguard's 10-year projection, how did their 2011 10-year projection track against the reality of what has happened? Does that give you confidence in their 2022 projection?
In 2011 timeframe, Vanguard was predicting 6-9% real return on stocks over the next 10 years, including US equities.

Adjusted for inflation, the actual 10 year real return on the S&P 500 was about 11.8% - significantly above their estimate.

2010-2012 was a special time to be investing - no one wanted to do it, especially in the US. Big debt crisis in Europe, Greece bankrupt, US government default risk and credit rating drop, etc etc. US equities had gone nowhere in 10 years. Vanguard was probably more optimistic than average with a 6-9% call.
 
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