Posts by MrMatt
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Can it drop 30% or so? maybe on Fortis?
I don't think anything is "cheap".
But I'm actually moving into commodities as an inflation hedge.
I don't buy commodities directly, just the companies that produce them.
KL gold, WFG (West Fraser Timber),
The Lumber market FYI is very volitile and cyclic
I'd like to get more copper, but not sure
I bought DGC... watching the stream of good news out of KL makes me angry how ripped off I got.
The pension deficit is a HUGE problem. We've got incredibly low rates and huge inflation, they're going to be in big trouble.
Well it depends how they calculate the benefit, but many pensions do at least some indexing.
One I'm thinking of bases the pension off your last X years worked.
People criticize others because that's what people do.
Look at all the people criticizing gun ownership and shooting sports.
They don't own guns, they don't use guns, they don't even know about them, but they still criticize from their position of ignorance.
People seem to have an inherent desire to control others, even when it doesn't really affect them.
Actually that has a lot to do with the DB pension liability.
If you have 5% inflation, they'll likely push for a 5% raise, which will increase the DB pension liability by 5%.
I'm not sure what the "complaint" was in that unreferenced post I allegedly made.
But yes there is a lot wrong with overly generous public sector benefits.
Low rates mean there is less growth in the portfolio to pay the benefits, increasing the likelihood of a pension shortfall.
Which will mean government bailouts that I have to pay for.
Really, why should I, the taxpayer be responsible for the fact that your employer promised you something that they didn't deliver?
No
And the current principle needs to grow to catch up, that's the problem.
I never made that claim.You'll have to explain how having more assets increases the likelihood of a pension shortfall.
If rates go down, and liabilities increase, the required assets increases significantly.
If the required assets increases too much, you'll have a shortfall.
Remember, if you have 30 years of contributions that's a lot of money, and if rates drop you can find that you have massive shortages, it's simple math.
For some plans, not enough. Look at the Sears pensions.
And I don't think someone like myself, who has no pension, should be left holding the bag.
You proved my point, you claim that I'm not on the hook, then showed that I am. Thanks.
Sorry typo, low rates means there is less growth to pay the benefits.
Paying the benefits is the liability.
I think consistently poor corportate management is why Sears and the Sears pension failed.
The reality that I have to bail out failing businesses with my tax dollars is a problem.
I don't support it.
You have a contract with someone, it's your responsibility to hold them to it, not mine to give you money when they back out of the contract.
Yeah, bit surprising, but a good time to buy!
You can say that about any time the price changes by a fraction of a cent.
Realistically I think 10-30% swings are a normal part of the stock market and nothing to get worked up about.
I think a 2-3% swing is less interesting than the latest clearance sale.
Yeah, single day changes are in March/October.
But those are "changes", both positive and negative.
Make your plan, stick to your plan.
Known that an equity portfolio will likely have 20-30% swings and significant periods of no or low growth, over any non-trivial period.
Divide out interest rates and it's even less extreme.
Myself I think Shopify offers a great product at a very reasonable price.
If you look at the value these companies actually provide I think there is something there.
I have Netflix & Disney, much better than cable TV for a far lower price.
Myself I think Shopify offers a great product at a very reasonable price.
If you look at the value these companies actually provide I think there is something there.
I have Netflix & Disney, much better than cable TV for a far lower price.
This is game people play, a lot of people make claims, then after the event happens, they go back and pick those who were right, as if they have special knowledge.
Also I warned that massive government handouts and money printing would result in inflation. Paying people to not work, will also kill economic growth.
As far as other predictions,
"He laid out a bleak sequence of events: homeowners defaulting on mortgages, trillions of dollars of mortgage-backed securities unraveling worldwide and the global financial system shuddering to a halt."
Everyone with a clue predicted that. The US set up a system, where the government encouraged people to buy houses they couldn't afford, and banks to lend to them. The systematic effect was a bit more, but we all know that when you take a bad idea, and push it along letting it get bigger and bigger, the eventual reckoning will get larger.
We're doing this in Canada now with our Real estate bubble.
I think people underestimate how much work it is to build a liberal western state.
Particularly those who think destroying our system here will easily be replaced with something better.
Yes
Not really, like I said at the time, they were normal and to be expected.
I still don't understand what the big deal is. Honestly it was just typical market volatility.
It was just as "shocking" as COVID19, which we were pretty much expecting since something we get a pandemic capable virus situation every 10 years, and conveniently COVID19 is even a nice round 100 years from the last major pandemic.
These are normal and expected things.
It will happen again. It happened many times before.
People make bad decisions. Particularly if they ignore expected repeatable events.
I know a guy who kind of gets money management, and he got an emergency fund.
But then he had his emergency and depleted it, but he wasn't in a rush to replenish it, because "it was a one time thing that won't happen again ". I pointed out that he had 6 "one time things" in the last year, and maybe he should consider that he'll likely have an "emergency" every 2 months or so.
History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes.
They didn't "save" the market.
Yeah, we have lots of pent up inflation from all the market manipulation.
When the government goes in and messes with stuff, ie "saving" the market, there will be a price to pay, and it will likely be higher. Printing money and all these games doesn't save the market or solve the problem, just adds more cost that we eventually end up paying for anyway.
The sad thing is most people don't realize how all this hurts them.
I think you have to look very carefully at what the definition of inflation is, and is not.
Statscan is pretty legitimate, and for most stats they do publish a full method.
The Dalhousie Report doesn't appear to show any methodology or be a peer reported study. Just a headline number.
It actually looks like they are publishing a report on peoples opinions and behaviors, which is very different from inflation, but in some ways actually more important.
Honestly you likely could come up with whatever inflation number you want.
Oat prices haven't changed much, if anything it's been on sale more. (I Buy the exact same box of Oats from Costco regularly)
Green onions and apples, oranges and a lot of in season produce are on sale for the same price as they've ben for the last year. Some other items seem more expensive.
Meat does seem more expensive.
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