[Ukrainiandude]

Unless you sell, these are all unrealized gains.
It feels like summer 2007 to me, all over again. People are bragging about how much they made, and everyone feels like a financial genius.

 

[Ukrainiandude]

When's the pullback/correction?

If not for fed it should have happened in fall of 2020. Now that the fed decided to participate, who knows. Could be fall 2021. Or not.

 

[Ukrainiandude]

Good for 2-5 years yet.

There is growing consensus in financial circles I think that we may be mid-cycle of a bull market.

Yeah, and the more investors join the party the higher prices will go.
My two pennies, no one knows the future. But some might pretend that they do.

 

[Ukrainiandude]

no one goes full margin, or max's out their HELOC for investment purposes

Keep believing that.

 

[Ukrainiandude]

2 years from now

just hoping the next guy pays more

 

[Ukrainiandude]

COVID cases

Old news, already priced it. Markets will go down but on something else unrelated to covid. And it will be unexpected and it will trigger the chain reaction and those people who invest with margin etc will be in for the reckoning.

 

[Ukrainiandude]

Fascinating reading, recommended. Free PDF copy.
Manias, Panics, and Crashes
A History of Financial Crises by
Charles P. Kindleberger and
Robert Z. Aliber

http://www.untag-smd.ac.id/files/Perpustakaan_Digital_1/FINANCE%20Manias,%20panics,%20and%20crashes%20a%20history%20of%20financial%20crises.pdf

 

[Ukrainiandude]

People that remember 70th and inflation, what was the best hedge against inflation in seventies?
It’s coming.

 

[Ukrainiandude]

“Unfortunately, earnings reported in corporate financial statements are no longer the dominant variable that determines whether there are any real earnings for you, the owner. For only gains in purchasing power represent real earnings on investment. If you (a) forego 10 hamburgers to purchase an investment; (b) receive dividends which, after tax, buy two hamburgers; and (c) receive, upon sale of your holdings, after-tax proceeds that will buy eight hamburgers, then (d) you have had no real income from your investment, no matter how much it appreciated in dollars. You may feel richer, but you won’t eat richer.

 

[Ukrainiandude]

Why would stocks ever drop? Interest rates will be low forever

What was the interest rate in 2006 ?

 

[Ukrainiandude]

The UK example is very interesting and could be Canada and the US in a few months. But there is a major difference and that is wide availability of vaccines. And somewhere between 97-99% of people in hospitals are unvaccinated. Canada has several million doses in surplus now, and that was before 7.7 million show up this week. It's a different show, in the developed world especially, with the US exporting vaccines and Europe hitting that point in a matter of weeks as well. This is rapidly becoming a pandemic of the unvaccinated, as Fauci described it.

Israel got their vaccine in January February. Canada and the USA few months after.
We do not know exactly to what degree the vaccine helps, but it is significantly less,” Bennett said.

At the moment, around 60% of the patients in serious conditions have been vaccinated. Moreover, according to Hebrew University researchers who advise the government, around 90% of newly infected people over the age of 50 are fully vaccinated.

The “percent of cases that turn critically ill is now 1.6%, compared to 4% at a similar stage in the third wave when there were no vaccines,” Prof. Eran Segal, a computational biologist at the Weizmann Institute of Science who advises the coronavirus cabinet, tweeted on Friday.

 

[Ukrainiandude]

Damn I was hoping for a nice correction...

Historically corrections more often happened in fall, never during summer time. Wait for it.

 

[Ukrainiandude]

 

[Ukrainiandude]

What can possibly go wrong, right guys?

 

[Ukrainiandude]

You should watch it

So you reckon it’s completely normal and sustainable? Because it scares me, vertical growth.

 

[Ukrainiandude]

Look at the bigger picture.

If I look at the bigger picture the 2008 crush and maybe even 2000 were completely unjustified. They happened never the less.

 

[Ukrainiandude]

They were justified by bubbles.

Not if you look at log scale. Maybe for 2000 dot com. But definitely not for 2008 crush.

 

[Ukrainiandude]

WASHINGTON, July 23 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen urged lawmakers on Friday to increase or suspend the nation's debt limit as soon as possible and warned that if Congress does not act by Aug. 2 the Treasury Department would need to take "extraordinary measures" to prevent a U.S. default.

How many times have they increased the debt limit? On May 19, the debt ceiling was raised to approximately $16.699 trillion to accommodate the borrowing done during the suspension period.
Perhaps they could make it like 100 trillion this time and forget about it for few years.

 

[Ukrainiandude]

Interesting reading from American economist and a professor who teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business. He predicted the previous 2008 crush.
The Looming Stagflationary Debt Crisis
Jun 30, 2021NOURIEL ROUBINI
Years of ultra-loose fiscal and monetary policies have put the global economy on track for a slow-motion train wreck in the coming years. When the crash comes, the stagflation of the 1970s will be combined with the spiraling debt crises of the post-2008 era, leaving major central banks in an impossible position.
As matters stand, this slow-motion train wreck looks unavoidable. The Fed’s recent pivot from an ultra-dovish to a mostly dovish stance changes nothing. The Fed has been in a debt trap at least since December 2018, when a stock- and credit-market crash forced it to reverse its policy tightening a full year before COVID-19 struck. With inflation rising and stagflationary shocks looming, it is now even more ensnared.

So, too, are the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England. The stagflation of the 1970s will soon meet the debt crises of the post-2008 period. The question is not if but when.
Link to whole story.

The Looming Stagflationary Debt Crisis | by Nouriel Roubini - Project Syndicate

Nouriel Roubini warns that conditions are ripe for a simultaneous repeat of the 1970s inflation shock and the 2008 debt crisis.

www.project-syndicate.org