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Discussion Starter #2
What I derive from this one person's analysis is that the following ETF's, for the Canadian market, look the most attractive at the present time:

iShares CDN Financials ETF (XFN)
iShares CDN Reit ETF (XRE)
iShares CDN Dividend ETF (XDV)
iShares CDN Value ETF (XCV)

Claymore S&P/TSX Cdn. Dividend Aristocrats Index (CDZ)

On a related matter, the Dow currently sits at just above the 10,000 level. By this autumn, many are predicting that it will fall to around 9000 reflecting the general weakness in stocks generally. At the same time, bonds may produce slight gains for investors.

However, at some point later in the year, these rolls will likely reverse with bonds producing decreasing returns and stocks recovering some of their earlier losses and then doing somewhat better in 2011 but hardly charging ahead with any get vigor.

How do you see things?
 

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Discussion Starter #3
I'm having a very interesting conversation with myself here!!:p

The link to the summary of global and international ETF's in the original posting, seems to indicate that virtually all of them "appear unattractive".

This suggests that it is not a particularily attractive time to invest internationally or, putting it another way, you might just as well stay within North America and, primarily, within Canada.

Also, in the past, whenever equities didn't look particularily attractive, an investor could always turn to bonds but these summaries would indicate that very little in the bond world looks very attractive currently either.

GIC's anyone??
 

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It is not clear why some ETFs are called "attractive" but not others. Just looking at the trailing P/E is an extremely simplistic way of looking at some of these ETFs.

I also find it bizzare that bond ETFs are all marked unattractive because the author seems to suggest that higher inflation (and higher interest rates) are the only possible future path. That's not true. If inflation stays low or if deflation becomes a threat, bonds won't be a bad place to be at all.
 

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I disagree. We are in fact headed for a period of higher interest rates and thus inflation. And in fact, for many things such as gas, insurance, housing, heating and groceries, prices over the past 5 years have gone up dramatically. I think the inflation numbers are a lie that won't stay repressed for much longer. The only reason the BOC hasn't dramatically increased interest rates thus far is they are afraid to scare consumers to stop spending, which causes further economic issues.
 

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I disagree. We are in fact headed for a period of higher interest rates and thus inflation. And in fact, for many things such as gas, insurance, housing, heating and groceries, prices over the past 5 years have gone up dramatically. I think the inflation numbers are a lie that won't stay repressed for much longer. The only reason the BOC hasn't dramatically increased interest rates thus far is they are afraid to scare consumers to stop spending, which causes further economic issues.
Perhaps you are right. But the bond market disagrees with you. The BoC does not set interest rates on bonds. The market does. And the market believes that inflation will be subdued in the future (over the next 5 to 10 years). The bond market could be wrong but I wouldn't personally bet against that.

http://www.canadianbondindices.com/data/MidTerm_AllGov_TR.jpg
 

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Both RTM and CC are right in their own regards.
I've said several times on this forum and over at MS forums that the govt. inflation numbers are not reflective of what ordinary families and households are experiencing since mid 2008.
Maybe it is a case of CPI vs. RPI
There is true and real inflation creeping up in essential goods and services, and it is getting worse.

The yield curve of federal benchmarks is rising in the short and mid term and flattens long-term, which supports CC's position that the bond market is factoring in stagnation or mild deflation in the long term.

As a consumer, I am in full agreement with RTM on inflation, current and future expected.

Going back to the attractiveness of bond ETFs, I'm not sure why they are being evaluated at today's yields.
Bond yields will adjust to the direction of inflation (or the expectation of).
Any bond ETF will be rolling over its bonds.
Therefore, as yields rise with inflation, the nominal returns will rise.
If yields fall with deflation or stagnation, the nominal returns will be flat.
Nothing wrong with that.

If uncertainity continues, the spread of corporate bonds will be higher.

I don't see how bonds are unattractive in this scenario.
 

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If you believe that U.S. long-term interest rates will rise, what are your thoughts on the hedged Horizons Beta Pro U.S. 30 Year Bond Bear Plus ETF
If that question was for me - I don't play inverse ETFs.
I'll admit perhaps I don't understand their inner workings fully but whatever I've read indicates these are not to be used as long-term buy and hold investments.
My exposure to bonds is buying bonds directly and holding them to maturity.
If you believe in inflation moving forward, stay with short term bonds.
If you believe in stagnation or deflation moving forward, buy long term bonds now.
 

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Discussion Starter #10
Another difficult day for the markets. Unless something miraculous happens it looks like the markets are going to finish the first half of the year in the red.:(:mad:

And so, we will have to hope for better things in the second half of the year but there doesn't seem to be much good news out there and many, many concerns and so it is hard to be optimistic for investors in such a climate.

Oh well, if you are thirty years old, what's to worry about??

As for we older geezers, :eek:!!!
 

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We cashed in our dividend stock portfolios; we are now 100% fixed income.:(


What a day!!!!!!! Minus 4.1% YTD as of June29/10;AFTER DISTRIBUTIONS (MINIMUM mandated)-- A thumbs down on the G20 policies, it might be said.
 

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Discussion Starter #12 (Edited)
Stocks and commodities tumbled today over concerns about China's economy. Investors have been looking towards emerging markets' economies as a bright spot in an otherwise dismal global outlook. Now, China's economy is showing signs of sputtering and so that ray of hope seems to be turning into a concern. In other words, there seems to be nowhere to turn these days when it comes to equity investing. If China's demand for commodities declines, there goes many Canadian equities as well.

Wasn't it only a few short months ago that pundits were starting to express optimism but where are we now at the end of the first half of the year!!:(

The indexes are lower than where we started. That's where.

Here's another book recommended by Patricia Lovett Reid. It is 'The Drunkard's Walk--How Randomness Rules Our Lives' by Leonard Mlodinow.

In the book, the author explains how a lot of what happens to us--in our careers or in managing our investments--is as much the result of luck and chance as it is skill and hard work.

A sobering thought for those trying to actively manage their own portfolios.
 

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Discussion Starter #14 (Edited)
I don't sell on the bad news. I just 'buy and hold' and keep to my target asset allocation.

Therefore, I will probably die broke!!!:(

Some say to always buy on pessimism and sell on optimism. The way that things are going, we may be facing one heck of a buying opportunity.

There is a lot of fear out there and investors are selling on each bit of new bad news.

Double dip anyone??
 

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In the book, the author explains how a lot of what happens to us--in our careers or in managing our investments--is as much the result of luck and chance as it is skill and hard work.
I used to only play chess where there is no luck at all and you have to rely on your skill. Now I recently learned to play Backgammon. I think investing is similar to Backgammon in that it's 50% strategy, 50% luck. Life may imitate chess as Kasparov said, but investing imitates Backgammon.

François
 

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If you believe that U.S. long-term interest rates will rise, what are your thoughts on the hedged Horizons Beta Pro U.S. 30 Year Bond Bear Plus ETF:

http://www.stockhouse.com/tools/?page=/financialtools/sn_overview.asp?symbol=T.HTD&table=LIST
I believe US long-term interest rates will rise... just not anytime soon.

Those funds are crap in general and their only saving grace is for people who know what they're doing to make a quick buck, but it's still a gamble.
 

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Sold the last of my XIU today, as per my timing system. We'll see if this is just some choppiness or whether we'll have a more significant leg down. Nevertheless, I'm out.
 

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Discussion Starter #19
I see that the Canadian dollar is back down to around the 94 cent range against the U.S. dollar.

When it was recently above par, didn't the majority of the 'experts' predict that it was going to stay above par for a long time this time around?

Wrong AGAIN!!!

Why do we even waste our collective time listening to these people?

Our guess is about as good as theirs!!!:mad:
 

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I see that the Canadian dollar is back down to around the 94 cent range against the U.S. dollar.

When it was recently above par, didn't the majority of the 'experts' predict that it was going to stay above par for a long time this time around?

Wrong AGAIN!!!

Why do we even waste our collective time listening to these people?

Our guess is about as good as theirs!!!:mad:
Or the brouhaha over how interest rates were going to be sky high pretty soon. How many people rushed to lock-in their variable-rate mortgages? Just two months later, we are worried about deflation, not inflation. So much for economic forecasting!
 
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