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If these numbers were listed in a newspaper article, my eyes would glaze over and I would skip the story. But show me a picture, and the numbers jump out at me - one in particular. I won't mention any names.

This is from @PremierBradWall which is why SK is shown in green.


 

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The situation is quite obscene given the state of affairs in the resource provinces but that is the fault of the equalization formula which is based on a lagging 3 year rolling average
A province’s Equalization payment in any given year is based on a weighted three year moving average, lagged by two years. For example, the actual payment for a province in 2013–2014 is the sum of 50% of its payment for 2011–2012, 25% of its payment for 2010–2011 and 25% of its payment for 2009–2010.

This weighted moving average was introduced in 2007 to stabilize year-to-year fluctuations in provincial Equalization payments, and thus to address the volatility and uncertainty that was a feature of the pre-2004 formula. Using data that are at least two years old in the weighted average eliminates the need to recalculate payments each time those data are revised. Under the pre-2004 formula, the frequent revision of Equalization payments made it difficult for provincial governments to plan their budget.
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Three of the 4 provinces paying $18 Billion to everyone else this next fiscal year are hurting badly. I agree with a comment made somewhere that suggests the paying provinces ship the dollars through proposed pipelines. Wonder how QC will get its dollars from Energy East. Current recipients better get their fiscal houses in order fast because over the 2018-2020 period, there could be next to nothing coming from the previously productive udders of AB, SK and NF during that time frame.

Source: http://www.lop.parl.gc.ca/Content/LOP/ResearchPublications/2008-20-e.htm
 

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What ticks me off is in BC we have to pay annual premiums for health care for the family and Quebec does not have to. I believe Quebec also give some dental coverage to children under 10 which BC does not get. My problem is we should receive this first before giving money to them and they get it.
 

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What ticks me off is in BC we have to pay annual premiums for health care for the family and Quebec does not have to. I believe Quebec also give some dental coverage to children under 10 which BC does not get. My problem is we should receive this first before giving money to them and they get it.
Except I think it is choice how a province delivers health and education. Quebec could reduce its income tax rates and then apply a health premium to all its residents... or BC could choose to increase its income tax rates and eliminate health premiums. It is a question of how a province wants to distribute its pain. It is not necessarily a question of providing more services at the expense of AB paying for them necessarily.

The various modifiers in the formula (see my link) is what could be worrisome. What happens in 2-3 years when the amount AB, SK and NF pay into the system diminishes because of loss of fiscal capacity in 2015-2017? Who picks up the slack? Or do total payments go down? Who continues to fund the cheques of perennial long time 'losers' in at least 4 provinces (NS, NB, PEI, QC)? How much does the bumbling gov't of ON cost those paying into the system?

Rumour has it that QC's hydro generating 'resource' revenues are exempt from being counted in fiscal capacity. I don't know if that is fact, but if it is, that is an obscene omission.
 

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Just read an article on Muscrat Falls. The author's view is that this NL project is so bad that at some point the Federal Government will have to step in and bail out Newfoundland. Then watch the transfer payments. This is multiple billions for a mis managed project from day 1. Not dissimilar to Ontario's nuclear plant disasters. The difference being that Ontario had the population and the tax base to absorb the mess. NL unfortunately does not.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfo...ls-will-need-bailout-says-professor-1.3925582
 

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Just read an article on Muscrat Falls. The author's view is that this NL project is so bad that at some point the Federal Government will have to step in and bail out Newfoundland. Then watch the transfer payments. This is multiple billions for a mis managed project from day 1. Not dissimilar to Ontario's nuclear plant disasters. The difference being that Ontario had the population and the tax base to absorb the mess. NL unfortunately does not.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfo...ls-will-need-bailout-says-professor-1.3925582
....as my (now-deceased) mom used to say...."There's no hope for this place!"....how right she was....
This - from CBC- during the hey-day of our "oil boom":
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfo...people-in-newfoundland-and-labrador-1.1191722
 

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The intent of equalization payments was to allow smaller provinces to have similar public services at comparable levels of taxation. Having lived in both Alberta and Quebec, the latter has far more public services (seemingly designed only to encourage French population growth and discourage any others..)

Just read an article on Muscrat Falls. The author's view is that this NL project is so bad that at some point the Federal Government will have to step in and bail out Newfoundland. Then watch the transfer payments. This is multiple billions for a mis managed project from day 1. Not dissimilar to Ontario's nuclear plant disasters. The difference being that Ontario had the population and the tax base to absorb the mess. NL unfortunately does not.
Similar to Quebec refusing Alberta to pipe oil through to the east, they also refused to let NL transmit the electricity through existing lines to the south. I doubt it's cheap to build that new power line from Goose Bay to NL to NS.. and unnecesary destruction of previously untouched land

Quebec has resources but no incentive to become a "have" province. They have received +50% of all equalization payments but represent -25% of the population. If Quebec did become a "have province", the idea of funding the west would most certainly result in another referendum
 

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Absolutely agree with you about public services in Quebec vs Alberta. Have lived in both and there is a substantial difference. Especially if you have children.
 

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Notes from ground zero

Quebecers squabble over what social programs to spend their Billions of surplus money on

Maybe Alberta could learn a thing or two from these cats
 

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I have lived in both provinces too.

Quebec squabbles about which social programs to spend on.

Alberta squabbles about which industries to subsidize

Neither gets it right.
 

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True.

I do miss Saskatchewan. Much less squabbles when the government sends each driver a cheque from their SGI profits at the end of the year.

Still waiting for that ticket to BC
 

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Kind of a meaningless chart and numbers when it isn't in context.

Saskatchewan has a population of 1.5 million people.

Ontario has a population of 13.1 million people.

Ontario gets 1 Billion in transfer payments but sends a whole lot more revenue to Ottawa than Saskatchewan.
 

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Still waiting for that ticket to BC

someone would migrate to BC because the transfer payment situation is so seductive?

now that's a first for any province

time was folks used to migrate to BC for the stunning geography. But i guess these days a stable transfer payments base will trump a rocky muntain high every time.

.
 

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Notes from ground zero
Quebecers squabble over what social programs to spend their Billions of surplus money on
Maybe Alberta could learn a thing or two from these cats
Alberta sent Quebec their billions (via transfer payments).
I hope they can adjust to their coming austerity, They'll soon be squabbling over what social programs to cut.
 

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someone would migrate to BC because the transfer payment situation is so seductive?
I'll take my $7,000 income tax refund and spend it exploring the mountains. I'll live in a van if I have to

Alberta sent Quebec their billions (via transfer payments).
Exactly. I just find it baffling to hear to the local radio talk like they're running a multi-billion surplus
 

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Lighting this fuse again: Quebec to receive $1.4-billion equalization boost while oil-producing provinces face deficits

Quebec will receive $13.1-billion in equalization payments next year – a $1.4-billion increase...
The three energy-producing provinces petitioned Ottawa last year to rework the federal transfer formula but Finance Minister Bill Morneau resisted and locked in the existing rules for five years.
Four other provinces will receive equalization payments next year, including $2.3-billion to Manitoba, $2-billion each for New Brunswick and Nova Scotia and $419-million for Prince Edward Island.
The governments of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador – where government finances are heavily influenced by the state of the energy sector – are all running budget deficits. In contrast, Quebec’s recently elected Coalition Avenir Québec government announced last month that the province’s finances for the year were sitting at a $3-billion surplus, although it later cautioned that the year-end figure could be lower.


But the part I like best: Legault wants nothing to do with oil pipelines other premiers crave

Arriving for what is shaping up to be an acrimonious meeting of Canada’s first ministers in Montreal and where some of his counterparts want oil moved up on the agenda, Legault signalled that it’s a nonstarter for Quebec.
“There are some who maybe will want to talk about petroleum. I am going to talk to them about hydro electricity,” Legault said arriving at the downtown Sheraton Hotel for meetings.
Asked more specifically if he has any interest in resurrecting the failed Energy East pipeline proposal which TransCanada abandoned last year citing regulatory hurdles — and which was staunchly opposed in Quebec — Legault slammed the door.
“There’s no social acceptability (for oil) in Quebec,” Legault told reporters.


Hmm, so those tankers of foreign oil are accepted (and used) by whom?
Rail cars full of Bakken oil still cross what provinces?

Insular and entitled is an understatement.
 

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Oh great news lol

To me the most annoying part isn't even the economic and social unfairness of it all, the producers providing so the takers can continually live in delusion... It's the fact that the productive regions are all unpleasant shitholes - while the worst offenders - Western BC and the island, urban Quebec, all of the Martimes, and more Ontario, are all the most geographically beautiful, culturally developed, architecturally and historically significant regions of the country.

The tax payers all get the privilege of living in either the desolate rural or semi-urban prairies or the soul crushing cores of Toronto and Vancouver.
 
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