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I'm enjoying watching this market action; pretty neat to see such big movements.
I thought it would be good to put the pullback into context, so I looked back at my 2008 archive records (I keep really good records back to 1993).

For the months of Sep/Oct/Nov 2008 I lost respectively -13.5%, -15.7%, -12.6% for a total of -41.8% in three months.

We're not even scratching the surface yet.....

ltr
 

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Discussion Starter #82
For the months of Sep/Oct/Nov 2008 I lost respectively -13.5%, -15.7%, -12.6% for a total of -41.8% in three months.

We're not even scratching the surface yet.....
Good point, and I agree. These have been two dramatic days but it really isn't that big a decline (yet)
 

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Good point, and I agree. These have been two dramatic days but it really isn't that big a decline (yet)
Yeah, for sure, not much to be concerned about yet, but it shouldn't stop people from getting their truck ready. You want to be able to back a truck up and load it if the **** hits the fan like it did in 2008. Cash is important to have around just in case. I remember backing up a truck on preferred shares in 2008. Many people made a ton of money on prefs in 2008. Anyway, nothing worse than having bargain basement prices and no cash to take advantage.

ltr
 

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Discussion Starter #84 (Edited)
Asset allocation and a routine rebalancing process also takes care of that and may actually be better than keeping cash on the sidelines. If you keep cash aside waiting for deals, how long might you keep such cash on the sidelines? That's performance loss (cash drag).

"Buying low" using rebalancing has the additional advantage of removing emotion and tendency to want to time the market. In 2008, for example, with annual or semi-annual rebalancing, an investor would have sold bonds and bought stocks at depressed prices.

In other words, it gives you "buy low, sell high" automatically while keeping you fully invested the whole time. It's the only reliable way I've found to achieve that.
 

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That is the beauty of the market. Many ways to make money and just as many if not more to lose it. There is also a school of thought that says sell your losers and let your winners run. Regardless every investor should have an IPS and an asset allocation that works for them. The past few days I have seen declines (I don't believe any of my positions were in the green today). I am ready to deploy funds and have a few orders in place at prices lower than current. Will I feel the same if markets drop in the same manner as 08? Hard to say. I am also a long way from retirment. If I was retiring in the next few years my asset allocation would be less risky to remove the volatility (and likely the upside). Money can be made in up markets, down markets and sideways markets. It's just that one person's gain is another person loss. GLTA.
 

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Discussion Starter #86
For about a year now, stocks & bonds combined have been rising very steadily. It seems that just about any day I look at my portfolio, the value is higher . . . Does this make anyone else nervous? I actually felt more comfortable seeing some volatility in 2018 since that's normal.
Just one week ago, I said that the steadily rising market (which never falls, ever) was making me nervous. It seemed unnatural and too smooth.

Amazing how fast this nervousness has been answered! The market did fall, and very sharply, which actually looks kind of healthy to me. This is normal, and investing should be difficult.

I feel better now. Wonder what I should wish for next... I think I'll wish for COVID-19 to be no big deal, so that it turns out all the current fears are over blown.
 

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It's a nasty virus, many people have died, and it's heartbreaking. It might also get worse. But it's worth remembering something. Long term, the stock market is amazingly resilient. Think about everything the stock market has faced in modern times. Two world wars. The Spanish Flu. Revolutions, coups, civil wars. Fascist and communist dictatorships. Wars, terrorist attacks, famine, genocides. Humanity has gone through very dark times. Times when all seemed lost. And throughout these events... the stock market churned on. There were ups and downs. There were crashes. Some very big crashes. There were periods of recession, even times of hunger. But the stock market kept going. Industry continued. The world recovered.

It's possible the coronavirus will spread across Earth, millions will die, and stock markets will crash 1929-style. Those will be dark, scary times. But long term, the stock market will recover and grow. The world and its economy can survive almost anything.

Maybe someday we'll get hit with something SO bad -- a big nuclear war, an asteroid impact, an alien invasion, a zombie apocalypse -- that civilization collapses. In this case, money will be useless anyway. What will become important are canned goods and guns. Anything short of that -- we'll get through it!
 

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It seems much more likely that the big boys are crashing the stock market to kill Trump's chances of re election in November. The coronavirus is just an excuse. I base this on nothing more than these 2 things, a virus is no reason for everyone in the world to suddenly dump their stocks all at the same time and number 2, some very powerful people have already shown us they will stop at nothing to get rid of Trump.
 

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Discussion Starter #89
So very rich and powerful people are deliberately crashing stocks, and inducing panic (which could get out of hand) to.... hurt Trump? Even though it's simultaneously wiping out their own money and causing economic contraction which is guaranteed to hurt their own finances?

That doesn't sound plausible to me.
 

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Also, bit early if the crash was engineered. People have short memory. Looks like fear of unknown impact to supply chains.
 

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It seems much more likely that the big boys are crashing the stock market to kill Trump's chances of re election in November. The coronavirus is just an excuse. I base this on nothing more than these 2 things, a virus is no reason for everyone in the world to suddenly dump their stocks all at the same time and number 2, some very powerful people have already shown us they will stop at nothing to get rid of Trump.
Sounds implausible to me. The stock market is in a correction. That is a very normal, healthy, and ordinary part of the stock market cycle. This might turn into something worse. We'll see. Coronavirus is causing a lot of fear and uncertainty in the world, and fear and uncertainty are bad for business.
 

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More than 10% drop in a week is not normal or healthy, it is almost unprecedented. The last bear market was 2008 - 2009 when the mortgage market collapsed and America's biggest banks, desperate to raise money, dumped stocks regardless of price. Even then prices fell slowly at first, taking 7 months to fall 40%.

As for who might be behind it I would suspect political operatives who do not have a stake in the stock market themselves.

Maybe you can tell me why the coronavirus crashed the markets but the SARS outbreak in 2003 had no effect at all?
 

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China's has a bigger footprint today, than it did 17 years ago. So many exports. Starbucks, Disney, tons of businesses are closed in China, let alone the thousands of cancelled flights. Global tourism is dramatically more affected now.

MasterCard, Disney, Starbucks, etc have revised lower guidance for earnings in 3 months. I think we will hear the full story by summer.
 

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I am ready to deploy funds and have a few orders in place at prices lower than current. Will I feel the same if markets drop in the same manner as 08?

do you remember dMoney? the youngest cmffer ever to become a millionnaire - believe he was only 26 at the time. Dmoney would have said If you have already Figured out your Buy price, then Sell Puts while you are Waiting.

the upside is that one harvests the cash premium from selling the puts

the downside is that the Buy position gets locked in. Never mind that the Buy price is lower than market at the time the puts were sold, the short put remains a tradeable security which the put seller has to repurchase in order to exit the position. Whereas one can simply cancel a below-the-market Buy order if the market plummets ... assuming that one can get to the order fast enough.

starting at 23 years of age, dMoney was utliizing a strategy that was smart & appropriate for his age. He knew that he was very young & just beginning a long period of investment accumulation. By steadily selling puts first, he was acquiring all of his chosen stocks at below-market prices.
 

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More than 10% drop in a week is not normal or healthy, it is almost unprecedented. The last bear market was 2008 - 2009 when the mortgage market collapsed and America's biggest banks, desperate to raise money, dumped stocks regardless of price. Even then prices fell slowly at first, taking 7 months to fall 40%.

As for who might be behind it I would suspect political operatives who do not have a stake in the stock market themselves.

Maybe you can tell me why the coronavirus crashed the markets but the SARS outbreak in 2003 had no effect at all?
Yes, you are right. I too am concerned at the speed in which this is happening. And concerned that even after reaching correction territory, the freefall continues. Probably "healthy" is the wrong word. But -- I want to discourage all sorts of "conspiracy theories" about mysterious forces behind the scenes, manipulating the stock market for political gain. I'm not wearing my tinfoil hat. While this correction is particularly fast and brutal, corrections are quite normal. They happen a lot. This might just be another correction, like many that we've lived through before. Or it might be the beginning of something worse. I don't know how it will play out. I don't think anybody does.
 

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It seems much more likely that the big boys are crashing the stock market to kill Trump's chances of re election in November. The coronavirus is just an excuse. I base this on nothing more than these 2 things, a virus is no reason for everyone in the world to suddenly dump their stocks all at the same time and number 2, some very powerful people have already shown us they will stop at nothing to get rid of Trump.
If this is case then 2021 should be a great comeback year lol
 

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Does anyone understand why XSP.TO is down 6% but the SP500 index is down only 2%? Morningstar says XSP is trading at a 3% premium, but surely that is actually a 3% discount?
 

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Does anyone understand why XSP.TO is down 6% but the SP500 index is down only 2%? Morningstar says XSP is trading at a 3% premium, but surely that is actually a 3% discount?
I suspect it is because of the "catching up" affect from being closed at 1:30pm yesterday due to the TMX trading kafuffle.

I should add, it's price data was shut down. I do believe it traded on other exchanges until the end of the day, but its data, which comes from TMX, ended at 1:30pm yesterday.
 

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Discussion Starter #100 (Edited)
Does anyone understand why XSP.TO is down 6% but the SP500 index is down only 2%? Morningstar says XSP is trading at a 3% premium, but surely that is actually a 3% discount?
Today's change %s are completely useless, because of the Canadian shutdown yesterday. Some securities probably traded a bit longer than others on the non-TSX exchanges yesterday so even among Canadian securities, you can't compare % moves today, since they are not synced to the same point in time. Yesterday's "closing" prices in Canada are useless, and the percent change as of right now is also useless.

It's messing up my own tracking too. I suggest looking up February 26 close and comparing everything to that.
 
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