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Discussion Starter #1
If you believe in tech, then you need ARKW.
And if you believe in tech, then you should also believe in cyber-security, then you need CIBR.
And if you believe in tech, but you are more into dividends, then maybe you should watch TDIV.

Any thoughts or better options? Or maybe CAD equivalents instead of these USD picks?

I personally think tech sector won't lose any momentum in the next decades. I mean, have you seen the gap tech has created when comparing how we live now as opposed to a century ago? Have you ever known a gap that big in human history? I don't think so.

Maybe there will be a deceleration until we find the next big game-changer. A bit like when they created the first computer who was taking a whole room in order to do simple calculations. At that time, people were mocking that it wouldn't ever be possible to own a personal computer. Then the transistor was born and now we can even hold hand-held computers (aka cellphone).

There are tons of emerging new techs with cloud computing, e-commerce, drones, autonomous vehicles, autonomous every should I say, virtual reality, 3D printing and much more. All those tech will evolve and change our world in the next decades.
 

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I personally think tech sector won't lose any momentum in the next decades. I mean, have you seen the gap tech has created when comparing how we live now as opposed to a century ago? Have you ever known a gap that big in human history? I don't think so.
Similar thoughts were expressed in late 1999 and early 2000. The aughts were not a good time for tech in general.

There are tons of emerging new techs with cloud computing, e-commerce, drones, autonomous vehicles, autonomous every should I say, virtual reality, 3D printing and much more. All those tech will evolve and change our world in the next decades.
Those are all true, but as far as market returns go, it is quite possible that they will be more helpful to other sectors such as energy, financials, industrials, etc. We just don't know.
 

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Discussion Starter #3
True, but it also took 14 years for S&P500 to get back into profitability after year 2000.
 

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The S&P500 is considered neutral with regards to sector weights. When you buy the entire market, you are not trying to determine which sector or security outperforms. You will benefit from whatever carries the weight for that time frame.

While I do not question the merits of your comments, I would be cautious about concentrated bets on the market. The airline industry changed the world too, but as an investment it has been a dud.
 

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If you believe in tech, then you need ARKW.
And if you believe in tech, then you should also believe in cyber-security, then you need CIBR.
And if you believe in tech, but you are more into dividends, then maybe you should watch TDIV.

Any thoughts or better options? Or maybe CAD equivalents instead of these USD picks?

I personally think tech sector won't lose any momentum in the next decades. I mean, have you seen the gap tech has created when comparing how we live now as opposed to a century ago? Have you ever known a gap that big in human history? I don't think so.

Maybe there will be a deceleration until we find the next big game-changer. A bit like when they created the first computer who was taking a whole room in order to do simple calculations. At that time, people were mocking that it wouldn't ever be possible to own a personal computer. Then the transistor was born and now we can even hold hand-held computers (aka cellphone).

There are tons of emerging new techs with cloud computing, e-commerce, drones, autonomous vehicles, autonomous every should I say, virtual reality, 3D printing and much more. All those tech will evolve and change our world in the next decades.
I have the CDN equivalent of ARKK - EARK and it has done well. On ETF.com, I know ARKW was the top US tech etf for 5 yr return for awhile. They have a few other ETFs that also look interesting - Next generation internet ARKW etc

I like First Trust Alphadex US Tech CDN hedged FHQ.F too which also had a near top 5 yr record ( better than the Nasdaq as well) This is a little more diversified and weighted based on value and growth scores vs market cap for the Russell 1000. The general indexes are too weighted by the FAANGS.

I have heard BNN commentators recommending the tech sector in general for the future. They also like cyber security ETFs too. May look at those but you can get the sector in FHQ.F
 

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Discussion Starter #7
While I do not question the merits of your comments, I would be cautious about concentrated bets on the market. The airline industry changed the world too, but as an investment it has been a dud.
I surely won't concentrate all my portfolio in only one sector. Actually, I'm looking for the best performers in almost each sector as there are stocks in other sectors performing as good as tech stocks. While I'm not 100% into tech because that would be a mistake, the tech sector is definitely dominant in my portfolio; I guess my portfolio may be comparable to NASDAQ sectors weights.

About the airline industry, you think it did bad? Chorus seems to offer a nice dividend investment. Exchange Income Corporation seems to offer a nice dividend growth option. Out of luck about Transat, I guess. Before COVID-19, Air Canada was an outperformer. It may take a while to get back to profitability, but everybody are eager to travel again. With all the social media about travelling, there's a huge amount of young people dreaming of travelling the world. I'm pretty curious about the future of Air Canada and I took a small position after the crash, just to sit there and watch. As for CargoJet, I must say I'm pretty bullish on that one. That being said, I haven't done an extensive search on airlines except for Air Canada and CargoJet, so my impressions about the airlines stocks are only based on a quick overview. Also, I'm new to investing in the stock market, so I don't have enough experience to offer a decent opinion.

Sure but not for those that invested in 2003 it didn't. :)
It hasn't been for those who invested in tech in 2003 neither.
 

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...I guess my portfolio may be comparable to NASDAQ sectors weights.
It is reasonable to put a tilt on your portfolio if you think those areas have a potential for outsize returns. Nasdaq (QQQ) covers mostly large cap growth, so you are missing all of value as well as portions of growth from your portfolio. I believe Morningstar has an X-ray function that allows you to check your portfolio with regards to these characteristics. Portfolio Visualizer also has functions to do a factor analysis.

About the airline industry, you think it did bad?
The very long term performance (over multiple decades) has not been stellar.
 

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Discussion Starter #9
It is reasonable to put a tilt on your portfolio if you think those areas have a potential for outsize returns. Nasdaq (QQQ) covers mostly large cap growth, so you are missing all of value as well as portions of growth from your portfolio. I believe Morningstar has an X-ray function that allows you to check your portfolio with regards to these characteristics. Portfolio Visualizer also has functions to do a factor analysis.
Thanks, I'll check that out. I said that my portfolio had a distribution over the sectors that may be comparable to NASDAQ, though the specific companies in which I invested are ranging from small- to large-cap growth (from market cap of 200M up to 30B).
 

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Love the timing on this thread. Today the e mini Nasdaq 100 futures touched a trendline connecting the 2018 top & the Feb 19 2020 high. The DSI jumped to 94% with the 10 day DSI @ 92.2%. Only 6% of traders think the Nasdaq has the potential to decline. Looking forward to the Puetz crash window
 

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Discussion Starter #11
Love the timing on this thread. Today the e mini Nasdaq 100 futures touched a trendline connecting the 2018 top & the Feb 19 2020 high. The DSI jumped to 94% with the 10 day DSI @ 92.2%. Only 6% of traders think the Nasdaq has the potential to decline. Looking forward to the Puetz crash window
I'm glad you loved the timing of this thread. I guess it's a coincidence, as I don't understand most of what you've said, unfortunately. But that's great news, because that means today I'll learn and discover something new!
 

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I'm glad you loved the timing of this thread. I guess it's a coincidence, as I don't understand most of what you've said, unfortunately. But that's great news, because that means today I'll learn and discover something new!
Mr Blackhill welcome to the forum most have no idea what I am talking about though a few do.

No coincidence the little guy is jumping in hand over fist. Robbin Hood saw a 30% increase in accounts in the first 4 months alone and in June alone, TD Ameritrade had a 400% increase in trades yoy. Over twice as much call buying as put buying with small trader call buying @ extremes.
 

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Discussion Starter #14
Mr Blackhill welcome to the forum most have no idea what I am talking about though a few do.

No coincidence the little guy is jumping in hand over fist. Robbin Hood saw a 30% increase in accounts in the first 4 months alone and in June alone, TD Ameritrade had a 400% increase in trades yoy. Over twice as much call buying as put buying with small trader call buying @ extremes.
Yes, I'm part of that big wave of new traders on the market trying to make use of the potential opportunity we are having. I just wished I had started back in 2008, I would have 12 years of experience instead of 12 weeks.
 

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All the tables are the same money will flow to the strong hands. Even the tech table the money will flow to the strong/strongest player like a poker game most will lose.
 

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Yes, I'm part of that big wave of new traders on the market trying to make use of the potential opportunity we are having. I just wished I had started back in 2008, I would have 12 years of experience instead of 12 weeks.
Its all good, A real bad trade is when you make money in the market with no method or never followed your method. The bull run has made people money that had no method that gave them an edge. Now they think they are experienced traders & are se up to lose real big from having had made bad trades that made them money.

A good trade is when you make or lose money though you followed your method
 

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I'm glad you loved the timing of this thread. I guess it's a coincidence, as I don't understand most of what you've said, unfortunately. But that's great news, because that means today I'll learn and discover something new!
It's not a coincidence. There's a mania for tech stocks and QQQ so it's a hot discussion topic (it's in fashion today). The topic has come up very frequently over the last year.

Look at how popular TQQQ has become. Even one of this board's risk averse members trades TQQQ. He has observed that it's so easy to make money.

Bull markets are funny though, you never know when they will end. This strong uptrend in tech is now 11 years old. Maybe it will last another 10 years? Nobody knows. However, I think you can expect a sharp decline when the bull market ends.

When the QQQ bull ended in the early 2000s, it fell 83% from its peak. When Canada's XEG bull ended, it fell 90% from its peak. When the recent marijuana bull ended, HMMJ fell 82% from its peak.

Getting on the bandwagon isn't the hard part. The difficult part is the exit: are you going to get out before the rest of the masses try to? Or will you experience the 80% to 90% loss that comes when something like this bursts?

20232
 

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Yes, I'm part of that big wave of new traders on the market trying to make use of the potential opportunity we are having. I just wished I had started back in 2008, I would have 12 years of experience instead of 12 weeks.
Okay, that is a completely different story. As a trade, yes, I would agree that the place to be is Nasdaq (tech, biotech, etc). My first impression was that you were discussing investment options for retirement, long term goals, etc. My comments were directed toward that assumption.
 

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Discussion Starter #19 (Edited)
It's not a coincidence. There's a mania for tech stocks and QQQ so it's a hot discussion topic (it's in fashion today). The topic has come up very frequently over the last year.

Look at how popular TQQQ has become. Even one of this board's risk averse members trades TQQQ. He has observed that it's so easy to make money.

Bull markets are funny though, you never know when they will end. This strong uptrend in tech is now 11 years old. Maybe it will last another 10 years? Nobody knows. However, I think you can expect a sharp decline when the bull market ends.

When the QQQ bull ended in the early 2000s, it fell 83% from its peak. When Canada's XEG bull ended, it fell 90% from its peak. When the recent marijuana bull ended, HMMJ fell 82% from its peak.

Getting on the bandwagon isn't the hard part. The difficult part is the exit: are you going to get out before the rest of the masses try to? Or will you experience the 80% to 90% loss that comes when something like this bursts?
I understand, but I'm not sure we can compare QQQ to XEG and HMMJ. From what I see, the energy sector had a 5-year bull market from 2001 to 2006. Cannabis had a surge in 2014 and 2018, but nothing lasting. As opposed to NASDAQ who had a bull market from 1974 to 2000 (that's 26 years!), then a nice run from 2003 to 2008 and then another bull market from 2008 to 2020 and still on-going (that's 12 years and still on-going). Also, people who had time to recover never lost money with NASDAQ if they were able to wait. I know that it took 14 years to recover the money invested in year 2000, but take the energy sector and people who invested in 2006 are still far from recovering their money and we are 14 years later.

*Correction about the energy sector, when looking at S&P Energy Select ($IXE) instead of the XEG ETF, I see a bull market from 2002 to 2008 and from 2009 to 2014.

Okay, that is a completely different story. As a trade, yes, I would agree that the place to be is Nasdaq (tech, biotech, etc). My first impression was that you were discussing investment options for retirement, long term goals, etc. My comments were directed toward that assumption.
Yes, I'm planning on retiring hopefully in a 15-20 years horizon, so I'm planning on investing on high growth stocks until I shift to dividend stocks. I have investments in the last 15 years, but not on the stock market, unfortunately.
 

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I understand, but I'm not sure we can compare QQQ to XEG and HMMJ. From what I see, the energy sector had a 5-year bull market from 2001 to 2006. Cannabis had a surge in 2014 and 2018, but nothing lasting. As opposed to NASDAQ who had a bull market from 1974 to 2000 (that's 26 years!), then a nice run from 2003 to 2008 and then another bull market from 2008 to 2020 and still on-going (that's 12 years and still on-going).
I agree that the QQQ bull market has lasted much longer than other popular ones. But it's not correct to say there was a 1974-2000 bull. This is only a hindsight measure, because nobody invested in the "NASDAQ index" really until much later. The index was created in 1985 but it really wasn't until 1993-1995 that it became a viable index that could actually be accessed. QQQ was created in 1999.

Most investors got into tech/NASDAQ within just 1 or 2 years of the top; nobody was investing in the NASDAQ back in the 70s or 80s.

Also, people who had time to recover never lost money with NASDAQ if they were able to wait. I know that it took 14 years to recover the money invested in year 2000, but take the energy sector and people who invested in 2006 are still far from recovering their money and we are 14 years later.
You won't find many people who calmly sat through the 84% decline in the index. Typically, declines that sharp cause extreme emotional reactions and panic / capitulation... people don't just hold. If you are able to sit through an 80% to 90% decline, you will be very unique.

This is why, for example, TQQQ will ruin many investors. Eventually there will be something like a 30% drawdown in QQQ resulting in at least 90% drawdown in TQQQ, and people will be wiped out.
 
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