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Discussion Starter #1
Ok boys and girls we have an extremely bullish stock market with the Fed to back it, so we cannot loose if we go long. So you say and decide where we go from here.
 

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Lol...

You can never lose if you go long. That's what going long is all about ;)

But, on a more serious note, I would say that everything is undervalued/oversold at the moment.

Up 10% by March, 11 for me!
 

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Discussion Starter #3
Thanks kaeJS but we are very overvalued at this moment and oversold after that, so good observation. And as you noticed I added the same poll reply as you.
 

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Discussion Starter #9
No one knows is right but everyone has an opinion on things and I find you can get an idea of how far the market has gone up or down by the way people estimate and think of things. Right now there is a very strong opinion out there that the market will rise due to the certain high or hyper inflation to come just around the corner.

Well what if we get moderate growth nothing bad but not great and the Fed decides that QE should be shelved for now because things look OK into the foreseeable future. The high risk way overbought trade comes off and the US dollar rises catching everyone by surprise. By paying attention to all the hype out there and realizing that everyone has bought in will help you to be more cautious and ready instead of enjoying the party at any price and then being destroyed after that.

You will also find that many professionals like to listen to what anyone has to say about investing to help them gauge the sentiment out there. I remember on another forum back in May 2007 everyone was bragging about how great the banks were and you can't lose and I will enjoy and keep buying and on and on and blah, blah. Well that told me I had better watch out because banks could be way overbought and a good correction could be coming and of course it did. Of course last year I was a victim of my own overconfidence that the market should fall off a cliff in the face of a lot of company betting the same way I was. September of this year most were on the side of correction and the opposite happened. If you would have asked everyone their opinion on market direction in August most may have said down for September.
 

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When you invest in the stock market, you have to be prepared for any number of so-called 'Black Swan' events that can out of left field when you aren't looking and send the markets into a sudden dive.

For example, if a terrorist sets off a nuclear device in a large American city that kills thousands of people. Obama recently said that is what he worries about the most.

Anyone care to predict how the markets would perform if that scenario ever came to pass?

It's a dangerous and uncertain world out there.:eek:

Stop losses are one answer.
 

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What about after 911 Belguy; sure it hit the markets; but with time there is a recovery.


Are you geting psyched by the travel warnings Belguy?:confused:
 

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Simple mathematics says that statistically the result will most likely fall into the up 10% and down 10% zones, about 8 times more then it will fall into the up 30% and down 30% zones.

But I always think the market is just about to go up 30% really, really quickly so damn the math and that's my guess. I think the market has way too much pessimism in it to get a sustained downdraft and there is still a boatload of money sitting on the sidelines getting less than 1% that, whether they know it or not, will eventually go into the stock market.
 

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No one knows is right but everyone has an opinion on things and I find you can get an idea of how far the market has gone up or down by the way people estimate and think of things. Right now there is a very strong opinion out there that the market will rise due to the certain high or hyper inflation to come just around the corner.

...I remember on another forum back in May 2007 everyone was bragging about how great the banks were and you can't lose and I will enjoy and keep buying and on and on and blah, blah. Well that told me I had better watch out because banks could be way overbought and a good correction could be coming and of course it did. Of course last year I was a victim of my own overconfidence that the market should fall off a cliff in the face of a lot of company betting the same way I was. September of this year most were on the side of correction and the opposite happened. If you would have asked everyone their opinion on market direction in August most may have said down for September.
Hyper-inflation?? I haven't heard much talk about inflation for quite a while now.

Ah, the financials, haha I remember all the disbelief people spewed when I was bashing them a few years ago. Told ya so, lol.

Correction at some point then higher. How much and when no one knows. I'll guess 10%.
 

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When you invest in the stock market, you have to be prepared for any number of so-called 'Black Swan' events that can out of left field when you aren't looking and send the markets into a sudden dive.

For example, if a terrorist sets off a nuclear device in a large American city that kills thousands of people. Obama recently said that is what he worries about the most.

Anyone care to predict how the markets would perform if that scenario ever came to pass?

It's a dangerous and uncertain world out there.:eek:

Stop losses are one answer.
Stop losses are not the answer, lol. They may help, but in a market panic your stock prices will be plunging through those stops like they weren't even there.
 

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Discussion Starter #16
I never use stop losses either, I instead pay attention to what is going on and take action if I must.

I also feel stop losses give traders a target to trigger to bring something down so they can get in at a better price. I could be wrong and they could be the way to go as many suggest, but to me it feels like I am putting my position out there for someone to exploit if they feel the need to.
 

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First of all, kudos to Dogcom for getting us all engaged in conversation during a rather sleepy time in forum land.

Of course, guessing trends in the market, particularly short-term ones cannot be done consistently with any accuracy.

However, I put my guess at + 10%. Traditionally, the fall (now) would be the time that we would be most likely to see weakness in the market place. Instead we're seeing some strength which is a good sign. However, there is still enough bearish sentiment out there to probably keep gains contained within 10% come March.
 

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Discussion Starter #19
If normal markets were here without Fed manipulation I am sure we would be seeing a big decline in the stock market right now. But the Fed is eager to click its mouse bringing on QE2. I think if they are able to stay this course then they will send bonds into stocks to make sure that opstyeagle is right.

I had a bid on VXX today as I had sold it yesterday for a profit and was going to pick it up again today when I figured the market would bounce a bit. Then I saw on bloomberg well before the market opened that the Fed would buy long treasuries over the next few days so I right away cancelled the bid. I think we will see another swing up here a small correction and then some more hot action unless something happens to change this new course.
 
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