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Discussion Starter #1
Here is an article from Harry Dent that says the march to 3000 or lower on the Dow starts this month http://news.goldseek.com/PeterCooper/1266131220.php I agree we will see deflation and so on and also think we will start the march below the March lows this year but I am not sure if it will be this month. But then again this stuff usually starts when you least expect it to.

Personally I am in cash and trading in and out of oversold conditions to capture returns without the big risks I see from holding long term at this time.
 

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Correct me if I'm wrong but a decade ago I believe Dent predicted 40k Dow. Then over the years he revised it to 16-18k then 14-15k by end of 06'. Now he's forecasting sub 3000. What's next? Negative Dow?
 

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I guess if Dent predicts a down market for long enough, eventually he will be right (he was predicting one for last fall). I'm currently reading "The Black Swan" which basically highlights the inability of anyone to give accurate predictions on things that involve human nature, like the markets. Even the best paid government and private industry economists have had dismal records over the past decades. I think the best we can do is try to prepare mentally and portfolio-wise for all eventualities.
 

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Harry Dent is a joke. I reviewed his Great Depression Ahead here:

http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/book-review-the-great-depression-ahead/

Reading it again makes me chuckle. 2009 was a great year for stocks and we certainly didn't see the Dow anywhere near 3,800.

More to the point, I think Dent's application of cycles is, to put it politely, baloney. And he is forever inventing new cycles and forever pointing out that he would have been right if only he'd paid attention to yet another new fangled cycle that he's "discovered". Anyone can be 100% correct about past stock market cycles.
 

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Discussion Starter #6
I thought it was funny because he predicts it starting this month. Some of his stuff like the demographics cycle does make sense and the way things are going with debt in this world it seems easy to predict a collapse to occur this year or the next.

In the next few years trading if you are good at it or keeping a lot of cash handy waiting for those rare buying opportunities to occur. People who simply buy and hold the index will see devastating losses before they come out ahead years down the road.
 
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