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I find it unlikely that any sort of manipulation is a major driving force behind this or any of the previous crypto bubbles. That's like saying that money laundering is the cause of the real estate bubble -- no, they (the money launderers) just saw there was a party going on so they joined in. The general public, the media, and corporate players are perfectly capable of starting the party on their own. It's the same with Bitcoin -- the crooks and scammers only showed up because they heard a lot of noise. Why would they waste effort trying to start something when they can just let everyone else do the heavy lifting.

In the case of Bitcoin, the underlying conditions that lead up to this point are pretty obvious...

  • crypto didn't fade away in 2018 like many thought it would, and the ecosystems have continued to grow quietly over the last 3 years
  • enough time had passed since the last bubble pop that many people who got burned had moved on, while new blood slowly replaced them
  • COVID-induced unprecedented government stimulus with no end in sight
  • a large amount of people sitting at home with nothing to do, receiving free money from the government
  • younger generations feel screwed by boomers/government and desire to opt out of system
  • every other asset is priced for perfection, so why not dump money where there's potential upside
  • a wave of institutional buying in late 2020
  • lack of faith in the ability of governments to control inflation long-term

Interest had already been growing quietly in the second half of 2020 before things really took off in October. Institutional buyers such as MicroStrategy were buying large amounts of Bitcoin in August. Now we're seeing waves of retail buyers. If you check out Reddit crypto threads, they're full of complaints about long wait times to get verified on exchanges. Exchanges are extremely backlogged and are having to hire more people to keep up with the new registrations.

Although we're quite overextended, I think it's possible that this bubble has a ways to run. The price should sustain and possibly grow as long as new blood continues to flow into exchanges. Keep a close eye on Reddit crypto and exchange sub-Reddits to gauge sentiment. I'm not making any predictions -- it could crash tomorrow or go to 90K for all I know.
 

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A lot of adoption and development took off in 2020 along with the endless money printing. In Jan/Feb I was already thinking a pandemic would be big for things like gold and crypto

Too many things happened this year to list them all here if you haven't been following along. I have only been responding directly to the criticism but can't repost it all here for you

Regulatory
US recently approved banks to trade/hold USD stablecoins - these are ERC-20 ethereum tokens
Coinbase IPO recently announced - this is huge for SEC to acknowledge the market

Adoption
Visa announced partnership with USDC - again ethereum ERC-20 stablecoin token
PayPal now trading bitcoin and ethereum

Development
ETH 2.0 - successful launch in Dec but the scalability benefits won't be seen for years
DeFi - decentralized exchanges, lending, borrowing already started on the ethereum blockchain even without ETH 2.0

I see ethereum as the digital oil of a global decentralized computer. This addresses the issues of FB/Googles having too much centralized control over the internet

Even pension funds are selling gold for some BTC now. I think BTC is too clunky and energy inefficient but it is more scarce (digital gold) unlike ethereum (digital oil)
 

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Discussion Starter · #163 ·
I'm having such a strong early 2018 déjà vu right now. It was only 3 years ago but somehow people haven't learned. Nothing has changed by the way, this is still a virtual "currency" that has no use in everyday life and will never be adopted by governments. The shitshow will be spectacular when it starts trending down.
People always forget. More likely, you get a new crop of suckers
 

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Bitcoins have acquired no assets in the run up from 8 cents to $40,000 so there is no intrinsic value.

The "market value" of bitcoin is solely based on the last sale price of bitcoin on the exchanges. It represents nothing.

Supply and demand economics = when the speculative demand stops.......the coin price drops.
 

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A lot of adoption and development took off in 2020 along with the endless money printing. In Jan/Feb I was already thinking a pandemic would be big for things like gold and crypto

Too many things happened this year to list them all here if you haven't been following along. I have only been responding directly to the criticism but can't repost it all here for you

Regulatory
US recently approved banks to trade/hold USD stablecoins - these are ERC-20 ethereum tokens
Coinbase IPO recently announced - this is huge for SEC to acknowledge the market
Yeah, I remember thinking similar. There had been a lot of discussion about how Bitcoin might behave during a recession... the consensus was that it would crash along with everything else, but then rise to greater heights in the recovery. Turned out that's exactly what happened.

I forgot to mention the regulatory stuff... that's important because it spurred a lot of the institutional uptake.
 

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Are the whales starting to dump ?

Someone just moved $850 million in old bitcoins and the price of bitcoins dropped $2,000.

Also, one of the experts on bitcoins and blockchain says a quantum computer will be developed that will break the blockchain.

So much for blockchain as a permanently secure solution.

 

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The price is currently down BUT I have a feeling on Monday it will will revert as this is just an oportinuty for BTC beleivers.

I have not read anything that should spook the market over the weekend....
 

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Elon Musk, the world's richest man, wants to be paid in Bitcoin.

Should that be considered bullish for the Bitcoin? Or is he so wealthy that he doesn't care?

 

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Discussion Starter · #175 ·
I honestly think that Bitcoin and crypto coinz in general mostly appeal to the gambling crowd. It also now appeals to Wall Street speculators and traders, since there is money to be made in active trading/arbitrage in these new, unregulated, inefficient markets.

All of that is fine, and I also think gambling is fun, but gambling & active trading are very different concerns than long term investment.

None of this means that BTC or ETH are viable long term assets to invest in. I'm really disturbed that CNBC and Bloomberg are actually bringing on Bitcoin guests and shills. This is deceiving some investors into thinking this is a reasonable asset to invest in for the long term... it really is not.

Gambling and speculation though, yes absolutely.
 

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I honestly think that Bitcoin and crypto coinz in general mostly appeal to the gambling crowd. It also now appeals to Wall Street speculators and traders, since there is money to be made in active trading/arbitrage in these new, unregulated, inefficient markets.
The underlying tech is very appealing to those who track or contribute to it. There's definitely a blind speculative crowd just looking to get rich quick without understanding the tech itself. It will still take years for the tech to mature - very similar to the 2000 tech bubble imo. Given enough time that tech delivered 5-10 years later but speculators/traders trying to get rich caused a bubble too soon

None of this means that BTC or ETH are viable long term assets to invest in. I'm really disturbed that CNBC and Bloomberg are actually bringing on Bitcoin guests and shills. This is deceiving some investors into thinking this is a reasonable asset to invest in for the long term... it really is not.
I watch those network business shows at work and their understanding is extremely poor. Unlike stocks with insider knowledge that is guarded and released strategically with marketing spins, many of these blockchain projects are open source. You can follow and even chat directly with the developers very easily. The transparency is far better but but network TV is not designed to educate.
 

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US recently approved banks to use USD stablecoins. The crypto market took off a few days before that announcement.

The main USD stablecoins are USDC, DAI and USDT. USDT is supposed to be backed by USD 1:1 but this is under investigation. Depending what is revealed about USDT investigation in the coming weeks will likely determine whether crypto soars or crashes (USDT is 3rd in market cap after ETH and most of that money came in 2020)

There's a lot of regulatory unknowns and there will be for years. Don't FOMO in at the top like people did in 2017.. I DCA'd while nobody was interested
 

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Musk said Tesla "may" accept bitcoins, but it remains to be seen if he will price vehicles in bitcoins.

If it is simply a transfer of bitcoins to fiat before the purchase.....there is nothing new there.

One of bitcoins biggest detractors Peter Schiff already accepts payment by bitcoin for gold.....but it goes through an exchange first and Schiff Gold gets paid in US dollars.

If Tesla prices vehicles in bitcoins.........that would be very interesting to see how he handles the fluctuation in the value every second.
 
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