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We have professionals managing our portfolio for us.......lots of equities, bonds, real estate, commodities, and private investments.

Also......HISA, vintage sports collectibles, paid up life insurance, and I want to buy Berkshire shares during this big sale, but the wife wants to keep GICs.

Pretty impressive that 75% of my wife's DB pension benefit comes from investment returns. They earned 9.52 % annually over the past 20 years.

My GM plan has been fully funded for years, but I haven't found any access to the current investment portfolio.



Whoops.......can't forget a pair of these little rascals, which are also professionallly managed and doing quite well.

All things considered........asset risk is the last thing we need or want.

 

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Crypto is going to help Ukrainians during the war.........said the cypto pumpers.

Charlie Munger, Warren Buffet, Bill Gates and many others are right.

Crypto is rat poison and toxic, and the pumpers and promoters don't care how much damage they do to make a buck.

“My sleep was severely disturbed, I lost 4 kilograms of weight in a few days, I was in an extremely depressed state,” Yuri Popovich, a Kyiv-based web designer who transferred his family’s savings into UST amid the war in Ukraine, told Recode. “Unfortunately, in our country there is no legislation covering such types of losses.”

The crypto industry is cratering. Bitcoin prices are at their lowest since 2020; one platform has barred users from withdrawing funds, and many of the biggest crypto companies, including Coinbase and BlockFi, have announced layoffs. This disruption reflects the economic turmoil rippling through the broader market, but also serves as a stark warning to everyday people that, generally speaking, crypto can be valuable one day and worthless the next.


 

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“My sleep was severely disturbed, I lost 4 kilograms of weight in a few days, I was in an extremely depressed state,” Yuri Popovich, a Kyiv-based web designer who transferred his family’s savings into UST amid the war in Ukraine, told Recode. “Unfortunately, in our country there is no legislation covering such types of losses.”
So you believe a person living in a city being bombed by Russia is losing sleep because of crypto :unsure:

You are clearly a very intelligent individual who rents hot water tanks and buys the platinum protection package for luxury domestic brand chinese made suvs. Jim Cramer would be proud

I have friends in Ukraine and they are happy to receive crypto considering their banks are closed
 

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Zoom out.........sounds familiar.

When confronted about Bitcoin's disastrous performance, Bitcoiners typically claim that the cryptocurrency's returns are still massive if you zoom out far enough.

MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor, whose company has already lost roughly $1 billion on its audacious Bitcoin bet, recently reiterated the popular talking point during a CNBC interview.

However, as Taleb points out, the average purchase price of Bitcoin in circulation is currently at $23,430. Meanwhile, the largest cryptocurrency is now trading at $20,406 on the Bitstamp exchange. This essentially means that the average buyer is in the red.

As noted by Taleb, the average purchase price for other major assets is much lower than their current market price.

The best-selling author does not mince words when it comes to Bitcoin and its supporters. Earlier this week, Taleb said that the world's largest cryptocurrency was "an intelligence test," gloating over its sudden collapse.

He further mentioned that the fact that MicroStrategy holds $410 million worth of Bitcoin in a custody account flies in the face of "stupid," "naive" and "conspiratorial" people who bought into the "trustless" narrative.

Last month, as reported by U.Today, Taleb opined that Terra's Do Kwon was more dangerous that the late fraudster Bernie Madoff.


 

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Volatility is great

I started averaging in again this month with funds that were averaged out last fall. Just like I was averaging in during the 2018-2020 period. I have lots of time especially once retired before 40

If you can't afford to invest in volatile assets then maybe you should spend your energy on something else sags. Time is running out
 

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I hope you do retire young and enjoy it.

I doubt cypto is going to move you forward on that path........but it is your life and you get to live it.

Anyways, there is no point in debating the merits of crypto anymore. It is either going to pan out or it isn't and time will tell.

Good luck to ya !
 

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The main selling point of cryptocurrency was always as follows: Central governments can't be trusted with fiat currency, so we need a decentralized currency that cannot be manipulated. It will then act as "digital gold," maintaining its value even if governments devalue fiat.

I heard some other advantages touted over the years, but the central message was always more-or-less what I wrote above.

This year should have been crypto's time to shine. This was THE scenario the crypto bros always talked about. This is the "doomsday" crypto was meant to protect us from. Bitcoin (and other popular coins) stepped up to the plate... then slipped, smacked themselves on the face with their bat, and fell onto their backsides.

Meanwhile, gold -- good old boring gold -- is doing its job.

Gold has been with us for thousands of years, spanning civilizations and historical eras. So much for "digital gold" being a serious competitor.

The other rhetoric I always hear is: "If you zoom out far enough, people still made money with crypto." Not the average person, though. Average investor entry point is higher than current value. Most people lost money. This is not true with mainstream asset classes (unless you look at very short timespans).

Maybe the future is in crypto. I still think that's possible. But this year's performance was embarrassing. To become an established asset class -- along with the biggies like stocks, bonds, real estate, gold, commodities -- crypto will have to do better.
 

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Crypto in steep decline again. Bitcoin is struggling to hold 18k.
Whales like to force liquidations and then buy the panic Rothschild style

Celsius, 3AC, Saylor and others are adding collateral to lower their liquidation prices. It could drop below this blue band like it did during the March 2020 liquidations. Most people were too scared to buy or worse panic sell. This is where the smart people with patience can multiply their wealth.

Probably sit in the blue bands for a year like it has every cycle. Doesn't happen overnight.
Colorfulness Slope Rectangle Line Material property
 

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This is the "doomsday" crypto was meant to protect us from
Yeah, very good point. The central banks mismanaged the money supply and sparked high inflation. And this was supposed to be when crypto was going to save the day.

ETH just fell below 1000 down all the way to 956. The peak price was 4866 so ETH has now fallen 80% from its high.

Crashing, while inflation hits new highs. Not exactly what we were promised.
 

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It could drop below this blue band like it did during the March 2020 liquidations. Most people were too scared to buy or worse panic sell. This is where the smart people with patience can multiply their wealth.
Since when did the complexity of the human behaviour while speculating on a asset which can't be valued has been modeled by data fitting a simple logarithmic regression? Because that's that rainbow chart.
 
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Yeah, very good point. The central banks mismanaged the money supply and sparked high inflation. And this was supposed to be when crypto was going to save the day.

ETH just fell below 1000 down all the way to 956. The peak price was 4866 so ETH has now fallen 80% from its high.

Crashing, while inflation hits new highs. Not exactly what we were promised.
Crypto truly shows how little people actually understand markets

The price of everything heated up during easy money and speculation/leverage piled on. During a liquidity crisis everything crashes and then recovers differently

If you don't understand this you don't understand anything regardless of crypto. Before the pandemic ETH was $100 james
 

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Since when did the complexity of the human behaviour while speculating on a asset which can't be valued has been modeled by data fitting a simple logarithmic regression? Because that's that rainbow chart.
It's one of many models and data points that you can look at

Pattern recognition is an aptitude that not everyone has. I'm starting to realize that not everyone can interpret things the same. To me patterns and spatial visualization come very naturally - most people fail my job because of this. How do you think a flock of birds fly together or a school of fish move together? Complex human and animals behaviour all have patterns

For example james bought the very peak of the last BTC cycle and now sees the crash as a failure of a promise that doesn't exist instead of an opportunity. This tells me he doesn't see the pattern I see at all. You don't want to buy the speculative bubble you want to buy when everyone says it failed its promise. Market price and fundamentals are 2 distinct things - apparently not everyone knows this

All markets operate pretty much the same because of human behaviour.
 

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I never do shorts myself

But I know people who just made more money shorting crypto in a few weeks than they made during the entire bull run. They see the big lenders and apps getting close to liquidation levels and shorting pushes the price down further and causes more panic and liquidations

They aren't against crypto and this is why markets are so volatile. If you zoom out the entire pandemic has been a volatile mess. Crypto is like 5-10x during pandemic while most stocks have fallen all the way back to where they were. How do people not understand how to zoom out.

Anyways it's clearly not possible to help people who can't see for themselves
 

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Pattern recognition is an aptitude that not everyone has. I'm starting to realize that not everyone can interpret things the same. To me patterns and spatial visualization come very naturally - most people fail my job because of this.
Yes, patterns...

I've worked in computer vision and developed algorithms to detect defects on turbine blades that has certainly be used on the turbine blades of the planes you've traveled with, so I know quite a bit about pattern recognition and spatial visualization.

You can't assume a pattern from data fitting will continue until you can explain it properly.

Hell, I also developed an algorithm to capture the reflectivity of a turbine blade and then simulate it. One thing we couldn't capture was the tiny sparkle effects. So I tricked some maths to data fit a sparkle effect which worked nicely but couldn't be explained, so obviously we couldn't use that as it had no scientific basis to back it up.

Same goes for that rainbow chart.
 
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You can't assume a pattern from data fitting will continue until you can explain it properly.

Same goes for that rainbow chart.
That's nice. I never said I assume anything based on one chart. It's a visualization to put things into perspective

I could explain a very simple log chart and how you simply line up some points to see how things trend over time. Why would I want to type that much when we have some people who can't even understand why hot water tank rentals are a bad idea. A whiteboard or something might help but typing is a waste of energy

I also don't need to get in an internet pissing contest with you about what you may or may not do with turbine production in Canada
 

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On the rainbow chart, there is a huge spike into the Maximum Bubble Territory in Dec 2017

You can go back and see all the CMF chatter and hype around BTC in late 2017. James4beach also bought BTC at that time and posted it here

I did not care at all about BTC or ETH during all that hype. I bought it during the 2018-2020 bear market where nobody talked about it
 

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I read a couple of O'Leary's books. He used to say he "would never buy a stock that didn't pay a dividend", and "never spend the principle" etc. He talked about money being little workers that he would send off to work to bring back more money haha. Wow has he changed. As of a couple months ago he had 20% of his portfolio in crypto.
 

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I read a couple of O'Leary's books. He used to say he "would never buy a stock that didn't pay a dividend", and "never spend the principle" etc. He talked about money being little workers that he would send off to work to bring back more money haha. Wow has he changed. As of a couple months ago he had 20% of his portfolio in crypto.
He's into clean BTC mining that generates revenue

He's going to love what's being developed now based on fee revenues from lending/borrowing/staking

Even gaming and NFT trading are generating fees and royalty revenue now
 
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