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How come New York with much harsher restrictions has a higher fatality rate?
Another one of those people who think you can correlate separate issues that have little correlation because it's a lot more complicated than that.

First of all, that higher fatality rate is based on all time from the start of covid. You know when it hit the major population centres hard on the first wave like New York and California because that's where a lot of the international travelers were transiting. It's also the fact that those happened before the vaccines and any restrictions were put in place.

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You notice a significant difference between the two sets of data over the same time period? New York had the majority of the deaths in the first wave, and then had a bump in the second wave, otherwise it has been steady under 100 deaths. Meanwhile, Florida missed out on the first wave, but decided to make it up on the second, third, and fourth wave. Of course, the increase in mortality after vaccines were available should be an indication that Florida did something wrong as you should be seeing a decrease, or at least not as big a spike.

As for harsher restrictions, you'll have to define the time period, because New York is pretty open: State by State Coronavirus-Related Restrictions

• New York: Fully reopened. Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) announced that effective Dec. 13, individuals 2 and older must wear a mask in indoor public spaces unless the business or venue requires proof of vaccination for individuals who are 12 and older. The mandate lasts until Jan. 15. Previously, she announced mask requirements for state-regulated child care, mental health and addiction facilities. Individuals 2 and older must wear a mask in those places regardless of vaccination status. On July 28, then-Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) announced that state employees must show proof of vaccination or submit to regular testing. Cuomo also required patient-facing state health care employees to be vaccinated, without a test-out option. Hochul extended that requirement to employees at mental health facilities. On Aug. 4, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio (D) announced that individuals won’t be allowed to enter indoor restaurants, gyms or entertainment facilities without proof that they have gotten at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. Enforcement began Sept. 13.

Florida: Fully reopened. On Sept. 22, Florida Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo dropped a requirement stating that before public school students can return to campus, they must quarantine for at least four days after being exposed to COVID-19. On July 30, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) signed an order protecting the right of parents to choose whether their children wear a mask in schools. In May, the governor signed a bill that prohibits vaccine passports.

Miami-Dade County Mayor Daniella Levine Cava announced individuals must wear a mask in county facilities, regardless of vaccination status.
 

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You accuse people of correlating separate issues and then you proceed to do exactly that.

Florida has different timing of waves than New York does. Just look at timing of the peaks - seasonal
It has nothing to do with international travel either.
It has nothing to do with restrictions.
Simply different geographies have different timing of waves.
Despite Florida having a wave over the summer and New York just beginning its, New York still has more excess deaths than Florida
Not sure I can take someone who is scientifically illiterate seriously, but let's look at your assertions:

Seasonal:
New York: 1st wave: Mar - Jul 2020, 2nd wave-ish: Dec 2020-Mar 2021.... not exactly a yearly cycle
Florida: 1st wave: Jul - Aug 2020, 2nd wave: Nov 2020-Mar 2021, 3rd wave: Jul-Nov 2021. not quite seasonal as it seems to be throughout the year including all months.

International travel:
Given that covid obviously started overseas, the most likely ports of entry are international flight destinations. The top 10 major ones in North America:
  1. Toronto-Pearson (YYZ)
  2. New York (JFK)
  3. Miami (MIA)
  4. Montreal (YUL)
  5. Los Angeles (LAX)
  6. Newark (EWR)
  7. Atlanta (ATL)
  8. Chicago-O'Hare (ORD)
  9. Vancouver (YVR)
  10. Houston Intercontinental (IAH)
The other considerations are where the flights are coming from, Carribean and South America origins (Miami) were unlikely going to be the source of covid like Asia, and Europe which would fly into LA and New York.

But if you're going to say that Florida's wave is over, based on your theory of seasonality, we should expect another wave now to mirror the Nov 2020-Mar 2021 wave.
 

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Yes there was a quote from the US media that home tests were only 50% accurate at detecting positive cases. That leads to horrible conclusions that lead to more spreading by the false negatives. Whose idea was this?
Quite frankly, those rapid tests are good for confirming that you are positive for covid, but if it comes up negative, it really means "I don't know, maybe?". And I guess if you like testing every day since there can be a lag between infection and showing up positive on those.
And they really come up positive if you are already symptomatic, which is why given the spread of Omicron, if you are exhibiting symptoms, there's a pretty good chance you have covid.
 

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Looks like people need a quick lesson in immunology 102.
The presence of antibodies isn't the end-all be all in vaccine effectiveness, because over time this will decrease as a function of lack of antigen (virus) presence. The key is that the B and T cells remember the virus even after antibodies don't develop as quickly. That's why even with the reduced antibody levels, we still have a reduced death/ICU rate compared to those who are unvaccinated. It just takes time which is why you have breakthroughs happening, as omicron is replicating faster than the immune system can react. However, once it reacts, the virus can be attacked and that's why we get faster clearance rates, which leads to people becoming less infectious quicker, when vaccinated rather than unvaccinated. Which is pretty much why anecdotally, you'll hear that most vaccinated people don't get as major symptoms as unvaccinated.

And FYI, the current booster shots are just the same formulation as the original shots, although they are half dosage for Moderna as the initial shots was pretty high. They aren't modified for Omicron although Pfizer and Moderna are planning on doing that for future. All the booster shots do is remind the immune system: "Remember me? I'm a bad guy" so the body starts producing antibodies.

That's not to say that boosters won't help, it's to say that those who have 2 shots aren't completely unprotected. And to imply that the original vaccination protocol of 2 shots was worthless because we need boosters is just ignorant to say the least. And before you say, "what about so-and-so", everyone's immune system is different so they will react differently.
 

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yeah... but

In this case the vaccine seems to have very weak protection against the current Omicron strain, unless a dose was received recently.
The really good part is that Omicron provides good protection against Delta. It is looking like this is the "weaker faster spreading strain" I expected would "end" the pandemic.

With many people in hospitals in oxygen, it's a bit too dangerous IMO, but at least they're not filling ICU's.
You have to define protection to what. Weak protection to break through infection? Yeah, infection rates are probably similar to unvaccinated. Weak protection to ICU and death? Not at all.

For example, from the UK: https://assets.publishing.service.g...efing-31-Dec-2021-Omicron_severity_update.pdf


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2 doses still provide 52% effectiveness against hospitalization after 25 weeks. You also have to consider that the UK primarily used AZ which can mean a difference than what we may experience; however, the point is still there that there is protection against hospitalization, and people aren't completely unprotected.
 

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Whaaaaat ... but the University of Social Media has produced many thousands of expert virologists, immunologists and statisticians all in record time, just when we needed them. :rolleyes:
I'm not sure if you are just being sarcastic at me, but I'm not going to bother stating my background because anyone can state anything on the Internet.
 

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My comment was totally sarcastic and not directed at you. I agree with you that the vast majority need a better understanding of things.
Fair enough, the problem with internet forums is that it's hard to gauge.

Like I said, anyone can say anything on the Internet, so claiming my background is pointless.

Warning: Rant
This particular subject is one that really touches a nerve with me when I see people who have obviously no or limited science background try to interpret scientific information and proclaim their expertise. And it's usually wrong or they completely misunderstand what is being presented, which is evident when you start pointing out certain things. Or their "research" is just youtube videos or Facebook memes.
It's doubly annoying considering that many of the people here look down on higher education including STEM, but when something like covid comes out, they think that all they need are a few hours on the internet to understand what is going on, when they don't even understand basic scientific principles. Basically, we have people studying for years (even just to get an undergrad degree), vs people looking at Facebook memes, and somehow the people looking at Facebook memes are viewed as the experts.
 

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Previous rant over, and back to lighter news. Don't know why Florida governor is asking for more monoclonal antibody treatments if everything is going so well:
 

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No one is questioning this. My point is that when vaccines came out, and Pfizer said 95% effective, Pfizer new it’s gonna change, they new viruses do mutate to avoid immunity. But it wasn’t, still isn’t widely told. People getting vaccinated should have been informed about this. Please get your second shot but be ready for another one in three months, be ready to continue wear your mask, be ready for curfews, travel restrictions, PCR tests and school closed. Don’t sugar coat it with 95% efficient. Tell the whole story.
And things change. That's the issue with science. These arguments that Pfizer is being dishonest and lying about 95% effective is just stupid. Basically, people making this type of argument are saying that Pfizer should have had a time machine back then, fast forward to 2 years and see what variant would look like and then develop the vaccine based on that. At the time, there was still not that much research done considering that covid was still new and not well characterized. At the time, it looked like it wouldn't mutate that quickly, or that the mutations would not greatly affect how the immune system would recognize the virus.

It's the same thing with herd immunity. That calculation is based on the replication number of the original virus. For example, to calculate herd immunity you have the formula:
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The trick is that the R0 value changes depending on any social distancing/public measures used to slow it down. But let's just take some values from Ontario, R0 for delta is 1.04, R0 for omicron is 4.01. Let's assume the same vaccine effectiveness rate just to make things easier for comparison at 90%. To reach herd immunity against delta, you'd need 4%, vs 83.4% against omicron. Before you get your head wrapped around the idea we only need 4% against delta, R0 is a living number that depends a lot on how transmittable the variant is. With a high percentage of people already vaccinated that reduces transmission rate, on top of public measures.

If you want to look at using R0 for unvaccinated population you can use these R0 values: R0 original 2.5, R0 Delta 6.5, which gives you 66.6% and 94%. And right now, we're at 77% fully vaccinated, though other places may have different numbers. So yeah, we're not near herd immunity based on the current variant.
 

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I meant weak protection as significantly less than the protection against other variants.

From your snippet
View attachment 22593


Which is also backed up in the table. FYI an odds ratio of 1 means "no difference". 0.98 means "almost no difference", which means that after 4 months the vaccine has no effect.
View attachment 22594

Similarly the HR against hospitalization has very wide confidence bands, and suggests that after 6 months the protection against hospitalization offered by the vaccines is much, by could be slightly better, or much worse.

FYI, the conceptualization of "Odds Ratio" isn't very intuitive.
I really don't think it should be used in papers intended for application. Mathematically it's great, but from the application side for "end users" (ie physicians & policymakers) it's "confusing"


Here is a nice layman accessible description of some recent studies. Really simple summary "maybe Omicron is the strain that ends the pandemic"
Like I said, if your definition of effectiveness is about infections, which is what that snippet is about, then yes, it isn't as effective. If we're talking about hospitalizations and death, then 2 doses is still helpful as I had pointed out.
 

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So if things are going well he shouldn't try to make them even better?

What kind of warped thinking is that?
No I'm pointing out that things aren't going well, which you can't seem to understand.

It's like there's a fire in the neighbourhood and there's one fire truck. We watch as the fire gets bigger and bigger, but the fire chief keeps saying, it's all good, nothing to see. In the background, he starts asking other departments for more help. Hint: he's not asking for help because things are going fine.
 

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In UofS vaccination rates are 99% only fully vaccinated people are allowed. But they are still switching back to online learning. Why is that? People are not happy about this.
I'm not even sure why I'm bothering to respond other than saying that's their decision. It's irrelevant to me if you're trying to discuss whether the vaccine is still protective and you want to copy a bunch of facebook comments.
 

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Hospitalized numbers are trending upwards but ICU and deaths are on a much slower climb thankfully.
Hospitalized numbers are going to keep going up, but there's a reason for that. Omicron is pretty pervasive so that the large majority of people are going to have it. The key distinction that isn't being made is whether people are being hospitalized because of covid, or if it is an incidental infection, i.e. someone going in for a broken leg and tests positive for covid. It doesn't mean that it's any easier on the hospital system or treatment, but what it does do is clear up confusion on whether the vaccine doses are effective on keeping people from being hospitalized. Although the ICU numbers are a better indicator of that.
 

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As for N95 masks, I don't think it'll be a bad idea to check with the CDC website for their list of approved N95 masks if in doubt.

But doesn't look like they have a list of approved KN95 masks.
 

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Source is Ont gov data...but this data is not new. Just not reported often. Something is making vaccinated people more susceptible to initial infections.The good news rate of infections have been dropping in Ontario for the last week , a few weeks ahead of predictions.
So you don't have a link to the data and just taking it on faith. Sounds like someone just looked on Facebook and reposting some "research".

Saying just Ont gov data is meaningless because it doesn't show how the data is being interpreted, if we don't have the raw data to look at.
 
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