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From Feb 11 to March 27 holding the S&P from after the first 5 minutes till market close produced a slight positive return while the buy & hold lost money over the same time period. The markets tended lower during after hours.
 

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There are tons of them. They're called hedge-funds and 95% of them under-perform the index, and many are outright disasters.

But there are some gems (think Michael Burry / Scion). Good luck finding them though.
 

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Yes, my trading has made more real money than my buy and hold only because I haven't sold any of my hold positions. :)

On paper however, my recent buy and hold assets have increased in value more than the trade I did.
 

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There are tons of them. They're called hedge-funds and 95% of them under-perform the index, and many are outright disasters.

But there are some gems (think Michael Burry / Scion). Good luck finding them though.
Didn't know there were hedge funds that are ETFs??
 

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[my buy and hold stuff has been doing just fine. All of them doing double digit returns so far. I expect it will do even better long term as trading requires price drops going forward.
 

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From Feb 11 to March 27 holding the S&P from after the first 5 minutes till market close produced a slight positive return while the buy & hold lost money over the same time period. The markets tended lower during after hours.
This is a great example of a backward-looking data fitting exercise. It's basically useless, because you can always look back at a price sequence and find something like this which "worked every time" in the past.

But it doesn't mean it works going forward. In fact, if there really is a pattern, it will disappear as soon as other people discover it.

Additionally, many of these patterns are purely random noise, happening accidentally. Meaningless. Often, people see patterns that are actually random. Of course, these also stop working the moment you try to start using them.
 

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Here's an example of what I describe above. Look at this super easy pattern for trading the TSX! (The chart is XIU).

Just sell short at 10 am and then buy to cover at 3 pm. It worked for most of the past 5 days and on Monday, it only lost 0.4%

Imagine: just two simple trades each day, that generates a profit 80% of the time! Some people will see something like that, leverage it up tremendously, and believe it's a money-printing machine!! :p

(Don't do that)

You can always find some meaningless pattern like that. It may even work for a day or two, but it won't work going forward.

20081
 

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I"m a buy and hold guy, I'm up since Jan 2019, and up lots over the last 5 years.
I always find it funny that people talk about stock performance over short periods of time.

It's not logical to consider equity performance over such short periods.
 

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Additionally, many of these patterns are purely random noise, happening accidentally. Meaningless. Often, people see patterns that are actually random. Of course, these also stop working the moment you try to start using them.
Hey James, How did you discover that :)
 

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Hey James, How did you discover that :)
I've been down this road before. Back around 2005, I thought these kinds of things were good ideas and tried doing some short term trading. The insidious thing about this is that it can actually look like it's working. So I was riding some trends, making money sometimes, but losing money other times.

By 2007, I finally got the idea of analyzing my outcomes. So I filled up a spreadsheet with monthly results and got some stats. Here's what I discovered:
  1. overall, I made less money than my GIC ladders were making
  2. my monthly profit was inversely proportional to how many trades I made
Basically, the more I traded, the worse I did. By 2007-2008, I reduced myself to infrequent trades. I stopped the frequent trading, stopped options speculation, and placed more intentional and strategic positions that I held for months. This actually went OK, and I profited through the 2008 crash.

But a few years later, I analyzed my results again. Though I had improved on trading (less trading = more profit) I also found that I would have still made even more money if either
  1. I used a passive asset allocation, even a conservative one
  2. stopped doing all this and just held GICs
So there's my life story. I started with stupid, ad hoc trading and speculation. I improved my trading by reducing trade frequency and holding longer term positions. And finally, improved further by stopping all trading and going to passive asset allocation.
 

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My 20 year experience described ^ here is also one reason I say it's not such a bad idea to purely invest in GICs. Many people do far worse than GIC ladder returns. That includes many equity and ETF investors.
 

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My 20 year experience described ^ here is also one reason I say it's not such a bad idea to purely invest in GICs. Many people do far worse than GIC ladder returns. That includes many equity and ETF investors.
For some that may be true. We did that for years during accumulation stage. But back then GICs were paying 5% - Double digits. Right now, if you bought at your local bank, as we did at that time, you would be lucky to get 1%.

These are different times, and I am actually going to buy some 1-3yr GICs and short term bonds today! Looks like I will be lucky to get 2%. But this will be to boost emergency fund. Hate to do that in taxable account, but this is just to backstop possible cuts in our dividend income once companies start reporting post crisis results. Will now have about 20% Cash or equivalents.
 

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Seeing about same. Except ICICI rates are higher. They are 2nd biggest Indian bank. Although guaranteed, I am still somewhat hesitant about some of those banks/trusts that offer GICs. Even the smaller Canadian ones. Presume they are all CDIC insured. But, are there any pitfalls if buying from fringe players?

Leaving taxable accounts until tomorrow just to make sure money is available. Today, I am filling in gaps in ladder 2022 and 2025 need topping up. Probably with GICs.

For today,
$10k GIC Equitable 2 yr 1.97%
$10k GIC CanTire 5yr 2.25%
$7k Bell Residual Oct 2021, 2.07%
$10k Bell Jan 2025 bond, 2.6%
Rest tomorrow in mix of GICs, Short term bonds, Perp Pfds.
 
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